Nvidia · Tech
NVDA
$202.81
Nvidia Corporation is an American multinational technology company headquartered in Santa Clara, California.英伟达公司是一家美国跨国科技公司，总部位于加利福尼亚州圣克拉拉。
Broken growth成长受损
Mega cap超大盘
$4929B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Constructive — building a base建设性 — 正在筑底
A normal mid-cycle dip below the 10-day average — the real cycle low isn't due for ~9+ trading days. Wait for support to这是跌破 10 日均线的正常周期中段回调——真正的周期低点要到约 9+ 个交易日后才会到来。等待支撑站稳，或等下一个低点构筑成形。
Price Chart价格图表
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$202.81
13.9% below 52-week high低于52周高点 13.9%
Market Cap市值
$4929B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
41.0x
40.2x sector median
Forward P/E预测市盈率
15.8x
EPS每股收益 $4.94
Beta贝塔
1.88
Moves about 1.9x the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.9 倍
Dividend Yield股息收益率
0.49%
RSI (14)RSI（14）
48
Neutral zone中性区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-08-26 (38d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
68th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
1.3% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | NVDA | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -3.9% | -1.5% | Lagged the index by 2.4 points落后指数 2.4 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | -0.9% | +0.6% | Lagged the index by 1.5 points落后指数 1.5 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | +0.7% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 4.0 points落后指数 4.0 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | +9.0% | +7.8% | Beat the index by 1.2 points跑赢指数 1.2 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | +7.5% | +9.1% | Lagged the index by 1.6 points落后指数 1.6 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | +17.4% | +19.4% | Lagged the index by 2.0 points落后指数 2.0 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | +327.9% | +69.4% | Beat the index by 258.5 points跑赢指数 258.5 个百分点 |
| 5 Years近5年 | +1020.6% | +83.9% | Beat the index by 936.7 points跑赢指数 936.7 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
Active signals活跃信号
MA Sell (35)1-Day Return (cross-sectional rank → top/bottom gainers)Valuation cheapness percentile (0–1, higher = cheaper vs peers)Overvalued — composite multiples in most expensive decile vs universeInsider Power (0–100) — quality-weighted Form-4 open-market trades (role × size × recency); 50 = neutral
RSI (14)RSI（14）
48
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线
-3.3% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+5.5% vs 200-day avg
Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度（ADX）
15
No clear trend无明显趋势
Volatility rank波动率分位
68th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$202.10
Don't chase above不追高于
$202.80
Stop止损
$192.50
Wait for the pullback等待回撤
Earnings财务业绩
38
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-08-26
Estimates being raised — 43 analysts预期上调 — 43 位分析师
Beat expectations 4 quarters in a row连续 4 季度超预期
Post-earnings drift: -4.7% (20d)财报后漂移：-4.7%（20日）
| Quarter季度 | EPS | Consensus预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | $1.87 | $1.70 | +10.0% |
| Jan 2026 | $1.57 | $1.45 | +8.3% |
| Oct 2025 | $1.24 | $1.18 | +5.1% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.99 | $0.94 | +5.3% |
Average surprise平均超预期: 7.2%
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | NVDA | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 41.05x | 40.17 | 49% |
| P/E (forward)市盈率（预测） | 15.8x | — | — |
| P/B市净率 | 31.34x | 5.85 | 6% |
| P/S市销率 | 22.83x | 4.85 | 6% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 2.44% | 2.19 | 57% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 1.96% | 3.05 | 34% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 0.81% | 2.16 | 28% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 36.98x | 29.30 | 40% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 50.99x | 30.46 | 28% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 66.9%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: -6.6%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
76.3%Return on Equity股本回报率
58.1%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | -0.02 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 3.91 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $40.1B |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $6.4B |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | -0.7% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 3/9
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (64.4)
Watch关注
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵
Cheaper than 27% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 27% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
1.88×
0.21×3×
Moves about 1.9× the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.9 倍
Financial Health财务健康
3/9
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Weak financial health财务健康状况偏弱
Dividend分红
0.49%
Pays a dividend (0.49% yield)有分红（收益率 0.49%）
Why Is It Moving为何波动
News新闻
4 recent stories — mixed4 篇最新报道，多空参半
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Magnificent Seven theme — #18 of 46 themes「七巨头」主题 — 46 个主题中第 18 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
NVDA daily MACD crossed upNVDA 日线MACD上穿
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±2.59%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±5.78%
Call wall看涨密集区
$220
Put wall看跌密集区
$180
Gamma flip伽玛翻转
$190
IV rankIV历史分位
89%
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-4.3%
Flow资金流向
$823M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 159 fresh positions; P/C 0.49; ~leans bearish/hedging (direction approx)成交权利金 $823M；0DTE占0%；159个新建仓；看跌看涨比 0.49；≈偏看跌/对冲（方向近似）
Skew: 偏斜：fear
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$787.3M net (0 buyers, 10 sellers)-$787.3M 净值（0 买家，10 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Activity动作 | % of portfolio组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scion Asset Mgmt (Burry) | A | New position新建仓 | 13.5% | 2025-09-30 |
| Egerton Capital | C | New position新建仓 | 5.2% | 2026-03-31 |
| Altimeter Capital | A | Adding加仓 | 28.6% | 2026-03-31 |
| Dragoneer Investment Group | C | Adding加仓 | 21.7% | 2026-03-31 |
| Soros Fund Management | B | Adding加仓 | 2.5% | 2026-03-31 |
| D1 Capital Partners | A | Adding加仓 | 2.4% | 2026-03-31 |
| Tiger Global (Coleman) | B | Holding持有 | 9.2% | 2026-03-31 |
| Corvex Management | A | Holding持有 | 0.1% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal History信号历史
BOTTOM WATCH
NEARING A LOW
Jul 8, 2026
NVDA daily MACD crossed upNVDA 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $204.12.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$204.12。
Jul 7, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 2, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 1, 2026
NVDA broke down vs the marketNVDA 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $197.58.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$197.58。
Jun 30, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jun 30, 2026
NVDA StochRSI turned up from oversoldNVDA StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $200.09.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$200.09。
Jun 26, 2026
NVDA printed a daily-cycle lowNVDA 打出日线周期低点
A confirmed local low — in this cycle framework the highest-odds long-entry window. $192.53.一个已确认的局部低点 — 在本周期框架中做多胜率最高的入场窗口。$192.53。
Jun 26, 2026
NVDA weekly MACD crossed downNVDA 周线MACD下穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned negative — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转负 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Jun 25, 2026
NEARING A LOW → DOWNTREND接近低点 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jun 25, 2026
NVDA broke down vs the marketNVDA 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $195.74.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$195.74。
Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 2280 signals条信号
Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.43
Value价值
-1.0
Profitability盈利能力
+2.4
Quality质量
-0.3
Investment资本投入
-3.0
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.8
Low volatility低波动
+0.2
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-1.4
Earnings quality盈利质量
-2.7
Short interest空头兴趣
+1.1
Company Profile公司档案
Nvidia Corporation is an American multinational technology company headquartered in Santa Clara, California.英伟达公司是一家美国跨国科技公司，总部位于加利福尼亚州圣克拉拉。
Demand chain:需求链： Hyperscaler capex accelerating (+69% YoY to ~$379B) — the demand pool for AI accelerator / compute silicon云厂商资本开支加速（同比+69%，约 $379B）——AI 加速器／算力芯片的需求来源
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Margin compression despite revenue growth
- Inventory build
- Capital intensity rising
Recent News最新动态
Get the full picture获取完整视图
Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。