The Regime当前周期

Mixed / transition — the signals disagree. Trade smaller, favour quality, take profits faster; don't position aggressively.混合 / 转换 — 信号分歧。缩小仓位、偏好质量、更快获利了结；勿激进布局。

⚠Capped at Mixed by the Risk Radar above.由上方风险雷达封顶为「混合」。

→ Green if volatility regime firms up (now 69/100); → Red if it deteriorates further.→ 若波动率环境转强（现 69/100）则转「绿」；进一步恶化则转「红」。

Goldilocks理想增长  ·  shifting — backdrop fading, not all-clear; see the risk read → Goldilocks理想增长  ·  转换中 — 背景趋弱，并非全面利好；参见风险解读 →
50 /100
Market state市场状态

Mixed混合▶

Risk-off 0避险 0 Mixed 50混合 50 Risk-on 100偏好 100
tick = today's score 标记 = 今日得分
Growth scare / defensive rotation增长恐慌/防御轮动: Trim chasing; favour good entries over extended leaders. Growth scare / defensive rotation增长恐慌/防御轮动: 减少追高；择优入场而非追逐已延展的龙头。
Under the surface: Health Care / Staples / Utilities have held while Energy / Discretionary faded — a rotation read, not a high-beta cue. 表面之下：医疗保健／必需消费／公用事业相对坚挺，能源／可选消费走弱 — 这是轮动观察，并非追高贝塔的信号。
Options expiration 07-17 期权到期日 07-17
What would flip this call什么会改变这一判断 ?Drawn only from today's regime-engine readings, shown as-is. Closest to flipping: the weakest component still supporting the call — slope z 0.49 vs its ±0.45 cutoff, margin 0.04. Odds drift: how the model's regime probabilities moved over the last 5 sessions. Conviction: 0–1 = probability behind the label × how much the inputs agree. Conditional context only — nothing here predicts a flip.仅取自今日周期引擎的读数，原样展示。最接近翻转：仍在支撑当前判断中最弱的分量 — 斜率 z 0.49，阈值 ±0.45（边际 0.04）。概率漂移：模型周期概率近 5 个交易日的变化。把握度：0–1 = 标签背后的概率 × 输入一致度。仅为条件性参考 — 并非预测翻转。 Context — not a forecast情景参考 — 非预测
Closest to flipping最接近翻转 market breadth (growth side) — if it fades, that reading flips · margin today: razor-thin 市场广度（增长侧）— 若其走弱，该读数将翻转 · 当前边际：极薄
Odds drift概率漂移 edging toward Reflation, away from Goldilocks, over the past 5 sessions 近 5 个交易日正移向再通胀、离开理想增长
Call conviction判断把握度 low (0.15 / 1) — held loosely; modest new evidence could change it 偏低（0.15 / 1）— 标签持有度较松，新证据不多即可能改变
0 50 100 50 / 100
Goldilocks理想增长  ·  Shifting — not all-clear Goldilocks理想增长  ·  转换中 — 非全面利好
50 Mixed混合
YELLOW — Trade with caution 谨慎操作
Mixed / transition — the signals disagree. Trade smaller, favour quality, take profits faster; don't position aggressively. 混合 / 转换 — 信号分歧。缩小仓位、偏好质量、更快获利了结；勿激进布局。
→ → Green if volatility regime firms up (now 69/100); → Red if it deteriorates further. → 若波动率环境转强（现 69/100）则转「绿」；进一步恶化则转「红」。
What would flip this call什么会改变这一判断 ?Drawn only from today's regime-engine readings, shown as-is. Closest to flipping: the weakest component still supporting the call — slope z 0.49 vs its ±0.45 cutoff, margin 0.04. Odds drift: how the model's regime probabilities moved over the last 5 sessions. Conviction: 0–1 = probability behind the label × how much the inputs agree. Conditional context only — nothing here predicts a flip.仅取自今日周期引擎的读数，原样展示。最接近翻转：仍在支撑当前判断中最弱的分量 — 斜率 z 0.49，阈值 ±0.45（边际 0.04）。概率漂移：模型周期概率近 5 个交易日的变化。把握度：0–1 = 标签背后的概率 × 输入一致度。仅为条件性参考 — 并非预测翻转。 Context — not a forecast情景参考 — 非预测
Closest to flipping最接近翻转 market breadth (growth side) — if it fades, that reading flips · margin today: razor-thin 市场广度（增长侧）— 若其走弱，该读数将翻转 · 当前边际：极薄
Odds drift概率漂移 edging toward Reflation, away from Goldilocks, over the past 5 sessions 近 5 个交易日正移向再通胀、离开理想增长
Call conviction判断把握度 low (0.15 / 1) — held loosely; modest new evidence could change it 偏低（0.15 / 1）— 标签持有度较松，新证据不多即可能改变
⚠ 3 of 10 markets risk-off — China A · Taiwan · Hong Kong ⚠ 10个海外市场中3个避险 — 中国A股·台股·港股 Risk-off spreading overseas — watch, don't chase. 海外避险情绪扩散——观望，勿追高。 ⚠ Leaders broken — typical AI-hardware name -26% off its high while the index holds. Watch — don't chase. ⚠ 龙头股受损——AI硬件个股中位数较高点回撤-26%，而指数仍稳。观望，勿追高。 Spillover to US: contained 对美传导：受控
14-session path 近 14 交易日走势 Score vs time综合评分 · 时序
Macro Dashboard宏观总览
as of 2026-07-162026-07-16
What To Do操作建议
Mixed — Trade with caution. Size small. 混合 — 谨慎操作，仓位缩小。
Composite 50/100 · 6 of 6 signals aligned · capped by the Risk Radar 综合评分 50/100 · 6/6 项信号一致 · 风险雷达封顶
Watch Volatility regime — the weakest leg (69/100). 关注波动率环境 — 最弱分项（69/100）。
Flip trigger if this rolls further 若继续下滑则触发翻转
Expect noise around FOMC rate decision — don’t read the first move as trend. 美联储议息会议前后噪音加大 — 勿将初动解读为趋势。
FOMC rate decision 07-29 · HIGH impact 美联储议息会议 07-29 · 高影响
Trim chasing; favour good entries over extended leaders. 减少追高；择优入场而非追逐已延展的龙头。
Growth scare / defensive rotation at 66 增长恐慌/防御轮动 66
Policy is quiet — nothing to position for. 政策平静 — 暂无需提前布局。
No active jawboning · last flip 2026-07-02 无积极发声 · 最近翻转 2026-07-02
Upcoming Events近期事件
This week本周
3 high-impact prints ahead 3 项高影响数据待发
Options 期权到期日
Jul 17
MED 中
20-Year 20年期国
Jul 22
MED 中
Initial 初请失业金
Jul 23
MED 中
10-Year 10年期国
Jul 23
MED 中
2-Year N2年期国债
Jul 27
MED 中

Release Radar数据发布雷达 ?Pre-print model projections for upcoming US macro releases (CPI, NFP, PCE, PPI). Comparison set is our own benchmark set (naive prior, trailing trend, Cleveland nowcast) — not street estimates. Display-only context; not investment advice; scored forward in public.即将公布美国宏观数据（CPI、NFP、PCE、PPI）的预测模型。对比基准为我方自有基准集（朴素先验、趋势追踪、克利夫兰预报），非街道估算。仅展示，非投资建议，正向评分公开记录。

Forward model · display-only · benchmarks · scored in public 前瞻模型 · 仅展示 · 基准对比 · 公开评分
Loading release projections… 加载发布预测中…
Fed Probability Instrument美联储概率仪
95%
No change 按兵不动
Priced in — market
pricing favors a NO CHANGE 市场定价 — 倾向按兵不动
Outcome Probability Distribution结果概率分布
50+ bp 50+
25 bps 25 b
50+ bp 50+
25 bps 25 b
No cha 不变
Policy政策 — Elevated · watch repricing 警戒 · 留意重定价
Last flip 2026-07-02 最近翻转 2026-07-02
Market Sentiment市场情绪
PANIC EUPHORIA
Neutral 中性
Composite at 52 · neutral zone 综合指数 52 · 中性区间
AI-linked names lagging while the rest holds up AI 相关个股落后，非 AI 板块相对支撑
Sector Temperature板块温度
Hot热门
Payments & Fintech 支付与金融科技 Cybersecurity 网络安全 Magnificent Seven 七巨头
Cold低迷
Big Pharma 大型药企 Health Care (Equal-Weight) 医疗保健（等权） GLP-1 & Obesity GLP-1 与减肥药
Sector Heat板块热图
SPY
US Equities美股
750.72
-0.54%
QQQ
Nasdaq纳指
705.94
-1.64%
DJI
Dow Jones道琼斯
52,552.97
-0.20%
RUT
Small Cap小盘股
2,974.57
-0.06%
ES
S&P Futures标普期货
—
—
NQ
Nasdaq Futures纳指期货
—
—
OVERNIGHT / ASIA隔夜 / 亚洲
N225
Nikkei日经
—
—
KOSPI
Korea韩国
—
—
TWII
Taiwan台湾加权
—
—
HSI
Hang Seng恒指
—
—
SSE
Shanghai上证
—
—
Risk风险
Growth Scare / Defensive Rotation 增长恐慌/防御轮动
Intensity 66/100强度 66/100
Policy Monitor政策监测
Signal信号 Elevated — watch for repricing 警戒 — 警惕重定价
Status状态 3 speeches 7d 7日 3 次发声
Last flip最近翻转 2026-07-02
Fed stance美联储立场 Hawkish 鹰派
AI BriefAI简报
XLF UNH NFLX UNH
5 High-Impact Items
Dominant channel: individual stocks
5 high-impact signals across channels 5 条高影响信息
主导频道：个股
5 条高影响信号
A read-through of existing signals — not a signal source. 仅为现有信号的汇总解读 — 非独立信号源。
Alerts Centre警报中心
1 FIRED 1 条触发
Major event on deck — expect bigger swings either way 重大事件临近 — 双向波动或加大
Event-risk window: FOMC rate decision in 12 days — high two-sided volatility expected · positioned fragile. Not a sell s… 事件风险窗口：美联储议息会议（12 天后）—— 预计偏高的两面性波动 · 仓位脆弱。非卖出信号；按噪声调整仓位。
Showing 1 of 1 fired 显示 1 / 1 条
Data health数据健康度 ?Every data source this dashboard depends on. OK = fresh. STALE = no new data lately (signal confidence reduced automatically). FAILED = today's fetch broke (yesterday's data still used). BLOCKED = a known, documented limitation — not a malfunction. DEAD = failed 3+ runs and paused until it recovers.本仪表盘所依赖的每个数据源。OK = 新鲜。STALE = 近期无新数据（信号置信度已自动下调）。FAILED = 今日抓取失败（仍沿用昨日数据）。BLOCKED = 已知且有记录的限制 — 并非故障。DEAD = 连续 3 次以上失败，已暂停直至恢复。 6 need attention需关注 · 163 sources数据源 ▾
source数据源status状态rows行数last data最新数据note备注
beneficial_ownership ok正常 12026-07-16
bgeo ok正常 302026-07-15
bis ok正常 12026-07-15
breadth ok正常 5682026-07-15
broad_flows ok正常 52026-07-15
canada_breadth ok正常 7282026-07-15
canada_macro ok正常 732142026-07-15
canada_prices ok正常 3532026-07-16
canada_universe ok正常 12026-07-15
cboe_cor_vol ok正常 174282026-07-15
cboe_gex ok正常 82026-07-15
cboe_putcall failed失败 0— HTTPError: HTTP 429
cboe_skew ok正常 91842026-07-15
cboe_vix_futures ok正常 122026-07-15
cboe_vvix ok正常 50612026-07-15
china_a_valuation ok正常 104422026-07-16
china_breadth ok正常 7012026-07-17
china_cgb_curve ok正常 282026-07-16
china_connect ok正常 1802026-07-16
china_credit ok正常 62026-06-01
china_filings ok正常 12026-07-17
china_flows ok正常 62026-07-17
china_lhb ok正常 12026-07-17
china_macro ok正常 25252026-07-17
china_margin ok正常 1802026-07-16
china_margin_detail ok正常 12026-07-17
china_news ok正常 52026-07-16
china_news_wire ok正常 12026-07-17
china_official_corpora ok正常 12026-07-17
china_pboc ok正常 89772026-07-17
china_prices ok正常 39242026-07-17
china_property ok正常 80372026-07-17
china_qvix ok正常 43422026-07-17
china_sectors ok正常 1407282026-07-17
china_stocks ok正常 2243262026-07-17
china_stocks_raw ok正常 972142026-07-17
china_tushare ok正常 12026-07-17
china_universe ok正常 12026-07-17
china_yield_spread ok正常 9432026-07-16
cleveland_nowcast ok正常 12026-07-16
clinicaltrials ok正常 12026-07-16
coinbase ok正常 542026-07-16
coingecko ok正常 12026-07-16
coinmetrics ok正常 802026-07-15
corp_bond_holdings ok正常 12026-07-15
cot ok正常 302026-07-07
defillama ok正常 51712026-07-16
deribit ok正常 72026-07-16
edgar_13f ok正常 12026-07-15
edgar_8k ok正常 12026-07-16
edgar_dilution ok正常 12026-07-16
edgar_trumpflow ok正常 12026-07-16
eia ok正常 254592026-07-10
etf_holdings ok正常 12026-07-15
farside failed失败 0— HTTPError: 403 Client Error: Forbidden for url: https://farside.co.uk/bitcoin-etf-flow-all
feargreed ok正常 30842026-07-16
fedboard_ebp ok正常 6422026-06-01
federal_register ok正常 12026-07-16
finnhub_altdata blocked已屏蔽 0— FINNHUB_API_KEY/FINNHUB_KEY not set
finnhub_transcripts blocked已屏蔽 0— FINNHUB_API_KEY/FINNHUB_KEY not set
finra_ats_transparency ok正常 12026-06-08
finra_corp_bonds ok正常 12026-07-15
finra_short_volume ok正常 12026-07-15
flow_signals ok正常 02026-07-17
frbsf_sentiment ok正常 169762026-07-12
fred ok正常 6661932028-01-01
french ok正常 11992026-05-31
fundamentals ok正常 57792026-07-15
gaming_nj ok正常 0—
gaming_nv ok正常 0—
gaming_ny ok正常 0—
gaming_pgcb ok正常 0—
github_repos ok正常 12026-07-16
grants_gov blocked已屏蔽 0— GRANTS_GOV_API_KEY not set
hk_ah_official ok正常 5952026-07-17
hk_ah_panel ok正常 57222026-07-17
hk_breadth ok正常 7102026-07-17
hk_cbbc ok正常 12026-07-16
hk_cbbc_sld ok正常 12026-07-17
hk_closes_deep ok正常 422026-07-17
hk_connect_channels ok正常 48772026-07-16
hk_full_breadth blocked已屏蔽 0— HK full main-board spot snapshot unavailable (Eastmoney flaky)
hk_gdelt ok正常 12026-07-17
hk_hkexnews ok正常 12026-07-17
hk_indices ok正常 14512026-07-16
hk_placements ok正常 12026-07-17
hk_prices ok正常 1692026-07-17
hk_property ok正常 23392026-07-13
hk_shorts_positions stale过期 12026-07-03
hk_shorts_turnover ok正常 12026-07-17
hk_southbound_holdings ok正常 12026-07-16
hk_stocks ok正常 34012026-07-17
hk_universe ok正常 12026-07-17
hk_valuation ok正常 3662026-07-17
hkma ok正常 1002026-07-16
holdings ok正常 12026-07-15
huggingface ok正常 12026-07-16
imf_weo ok正常 12026-07-15
intl_etf ok正常 10352026-07-15
intl_macro ok正常 260192026-07-15
intl_prices ok正常 599202026-07-16
intl_universe ok正常 12026-07-16
intraday_flow_nightly ok正常 0—
jodi ok正常 6832026-04-01
kalshi_releases ok正常 12026-07-16
lbnl_queue failed失败 0— RuntimeError: lbnl_queue: emp.lbl.gov unreachable (Cloudflare WAF); the committed seed JSO
massive_stock_day failed失败 0— RuntimeError: massive_stock_day: no_creds
mempool ok正常 332026-07-16
midcap_breadth ok正常 14522026-07-15
nyfed ok正常 12722026-07-15
ofr ok正常 12026-07-15
ofr_fsi ok正常 604172026-07-13
okx ok正常 13932026-07-16
openfda ok正常 12026-07-16
openfigi ok正常 12026-07-16
options_flow_creds no_creds缺凭证 0—
polygon_gex_accrual ok正常 181953—
polygon_news ok正常 12026-07-16
prediction_markets ok正常 12026-07-15
quiver_appratings ok正常 12026-07-16
quiver_bills ok正常 12026-07-16
quiver_cnbc ok正常 12026-07-16
quiver_congress ok正常 12026-07-16
quiver_congressholdings ok正常 12026-07-16
quiver_corpdonors ok正常 12026-07-16
quiver_flights blocked已屏蔽 0— tombstone: plan-limited feed, last event 2025-07-23
quiver_govcontracts ok正常 12026-07-16
quiver_house ok正常 12026-07-16
quiver_insiders ok正常 12026-07-16
quiver_lobbying ok正常 12026-07-16
quiver_news ok正常 12026-07-16
quiver_offexchange ok正常 12026-07-16
quiver_patents ok正常 12026-07-16
quiver_sec13f ok正常 12026-07-16
quiver_sec13f_changes ok正常 12026-07-16
quiver_senate ok正常 12026-07-16
quiver_spacs blocked已屏蔽 0— tombstone: dead feed, last data 2023-12-18
quiver_trump ok正常 12026-07-16
quiver_twitter blocked已屏蔽 0— tombstone: API discontinued (Twitter/X shut down free API 2023)
quiver_watchlist ok正常 12026-07-16
quiver_wsb ok正常 12026-07-16
rate_futures ok正常 632026-07-15
sam_gov blocked已屏蔽 0— SAM_API_KEY not set
sector_flows ok正常 112026-07-14
sector_holdings ok正常 12026-07-15
sentiment_aaii ok正常 212026-07-08
sentiment_naaim ok正常 10442026-07-08
smallcap_breadth ok正常 14522026-07-15
sovereign ok正常 395322026-07-14
stock_fundamentals ok正常 12026-07-15
stock_prices ok正常 44002026-07-15
stocktwits ok正常 12026-07-16
symbol_directory ok正常 12026-07-16
tape_flow_forward ok正常 02026-07-10
treasury ok正常 272026-07-14
treasury_auctions ok正常 12026-07-15
tsa ok正常 27522026-07-14
uncertainty_indices ok正常 303402026-07-15
usaspending ok正常 502026-07-01
wiki_pageviews ok正常 1456212026-07-15
wikipedia_btc ok正常 40322026-07-14
worldbank ok正常 522025-12-31
yahoo ok正常 1595002026-07-16

A failed source never crashes the dashboard — affected signals just lose confidence until it heals. Generated 2026-07-17 16:26 UTC · AI daily brief · history & charts数据源失败绝不会让仪表盘崩溃 — 受影响的信号只是降低置信度，直到其恢复。 生成于 2026-07-17 16:26 UTC · AI每日简报 · 历史与图表