Diversification, not timing: a static income + gold + short-bond blend that roughly triples the Sharpe of CSI 300 and cuts...靠分散而非择时：红利 + 黄金 + 短债的静态组合，夏普约为沪深300的三倍，回撤降至约四分之一。

China's #1 driver is the credit cycle, not price trend: own CSI 300 when the credit impulse is positive, step aside when i...中国第一驱动力是信用周期而非价格趋势：信用脉冲为正时持有沪深300，收缩时退避——叠加轻量波动率护栏以应对慢宏观数据漏掉的恐慌。

Moreira-Muir: scale exposure down when CSI 300's own realized volatility is elevated — a price-orthogonal signal that cuts...Moreira-Muir：当沪深300自身已实现波动率升高时降低敞口——一个与价格正交的信号，可削减中国的深度熊市，又避免趋势择时在此频繁打脸。

Two slow, fundamentals-based de-risk signals with no price input: lean out of CSI 300 when the credit impulse contracts AN...两条慢节奏、基本面驱动、不含价格的降险信号：信用脉冲收缩且散户融资杠杆处于多年狂热极值（2015 年泡沫见顶信号）时减仓沪深300。本系列中回撤最浅。