💱 Forex Vector

Dollar-first FX context. Each pair is scored after removing shared dollar beta, so the board is not one repeated USD trade. Context only, not trade calls.美元优先的外汇背景。每个货币对先剥离共同美元贝塔再评分，因此不是重复押注美元。仅作背景，非交易建议。 · As of截至 Jul 17, 2026

§01

Dollar Desk — the master variable美元桌 · 主控变量

the dollar sets the backdrop for FX and risk assets美元为外汇与风险资产设定背景

Broad-dollar master · the dollar smile广义美元主控 · 美元微笑

US growth premium美国增长溢价（左侧）
US dollar美元 strengthening走强 (1.8% / 63d) · risk风险 risk-on偏好风险 (-0.21)
mixed backdrop分化背景 context summary, not a score背景汇总，非评分
Favored:受青睐： USD
Broad USD广义美元120.5
DXY100.73
Advanced leg发达经济体113.7
EM leg新兴经济体129.2
Dollar smile: USD can rise on US strength or global stress, and soften in calm synchronized growth.美元微笑：美元可因美国强势或全球压力而走强，在平静同步增长中走软。

Broad dollar & risk-off composite广义美元与避险综合

US 10y real yield is the dollar anchor; coincident, not a forecast.美国10年实际收益率是美元锚；同步关系，非预测。

Dollar signal stack美元信号栈 · context only仅作背景

Real-rate regime实际利率格局
Restrictive real yields实际利率偏紧
10y real10年实际 2.33% · breakeven盈亏平衡 2.23% · USD-supportive偏多美元
coincident同步
Fed policy path (US leg)美联储路径（美国端）
+34bp priced to 12m12个月定价
3.64% → 3.98% · path steady路径稳定
coincident同步
USD positioning (COT)美元持仓（COT）
75th pctile百分位
Neutral中性 · spec net投机净 24.9% OI
context · unmeasured背景 · 未测
Valuation (REER)估值（REER）
+0.3% vs 5y mean相对5年均值
Fair合理 ✓
context · multi-year背景 · 多年 · forward-IC confirmed远期IC已确认
Trend stack (broad USD)趋势栈（广义美元）
4/4 horizons up周期上行
21d+0.5%
63d+1.3%
126d+0.3%
252d+0.6%
context · breadth背景 · 广度
USD liquidity美元流动性
-167B / 63d
net Fed liquidity (WALCL−RRP)净美联储流动性（WALCL−RRP） · USD-soft偏空美元
context · slow背景 · 缓慢
Smile confirmation微笑确认
Medium中 · 2/3 legs项
confirmed by确认于 real yields, trend stack
coincident同步
§1.5

FX Stress & Regime RadarFX压力与格局雷达

currency speed + levels mapped to named stress setups货币速度与水平映射到压力情景
coincident同步 empirical base rate · display-only / never scored经验基率 · 仅供展示/从不评分 No scenario active — currency moves are not configured like a known stress regime today.当前无激活情景 — 货币走势未呈现已知压力格局。
Carry Unwind / Yen-Funded Deleveraging套息平仓 / 日元融资去杠杆
1/3+ legs firing腿触发
12/100
stress intensity压力强度
Forward analogue from history历史远期类比
On the 1101 days at least this stressed, 15% saw the adverse move within 10d — vs a 11% base rate.在1101个至少同等压力的历史日中，15%在10天内出现不利走势 — 而无条件基率为11%。
95% CI 9–22% · n=1101 (neff≈110.1) · lift提升 +4pp · CIs overlap — lift not robust区间重叠 — 提升不稳健
Defining outcome界定结果: adverse move over不利走势于 10d天 · today’s stress is at the当前压力处于 81th %ile of history历史百分位.
What’s firing触发因素
Funders (JPY/CHF) surging融资货币（日元/瑞郎）飙升
○
Carry basket (AUD/MXN/BRL) crashing套息篮子（澳/墨/巴）崩跌
○
Funder−carry divergence融资−套息背离
○
EM residual co-movement (contagion)新兴残差共动（传染）
●
Equity-vol spike股市波动飙升
○
Yen acceleration日元加速
○
Funders surge while carry/EM crash together — the discriminator vs a plain dollar move.融资货币飙升、套息/新兴市场同步崩跌 — 区别于单纯美元波动的关键。
Broad-Dollar Wrecking Ball / Global Tightening广义美元压路机 / 全球紧缩
0/3+ legs firing腿触发
4/100
stress intensity压力强度
Forward analogue from history历史远期类比
On the 4061 days at least this stressed, 14% saw the adverse move within 20d — vs a 13% base rate.在4061个至少同等压力的历史日中，14%在20天内出现不利走势 — 而无条件基率为13%。
95% CI 10–19% · n=4061 (neff≈203.1) · lift提升 +1pp · CIs overlap — lift not robust区间重叠 — 提升不稳健
Defining outcome界定结果: adverse move over不利走势于 20d天 · today’s stress is at the当前压力处于 22th %ile of history历史百分位.
What’s firing触发因素
Broad USD rising fast广义美元快速上行
○
Broad USD stretched (level)广义美元水平偏高
○
USD up vs most pairs (breadth)美元对多数货币上行（广度）
○
Advanced AND EM USD legs up发达与新兴美元同步走强
○
Real yields rising实际收益率上行
○
Financial conditions tightening金融条件收紧
○
Broad USD strength across BOTH advanced and EM legs, on broad breadth — a global squeeze, not one pair.美元在发达与新兴两端全面走强、广度高 — 全球性挤压而非单一货币对。
EM Crisis / Capital Flight新兴市场危机 / 资本外逃
0/3+ legs firing腿触发
8/100
stress intensity压力强度
Forward analogue from history历史远期类比
On the 2889 days at least this stressed, 28% saw the adverse move within 20d — vs a 27% base rate.在2889个至少同等压力的历史日中，28%在20天内出现不利走势 — 而无条件基率为27%。
95% CI 22–36% · n=2889 (neff≈144.4) · lift提升 +1pp · CIs overlap — lift not robust区间重叠 — 提升不稳健
Defining outcome界定结果: adverse move over不利走势于 20d天 · today’s stress is at the当前压力处于 43th %ile of history历史百分位.
⚑ Managed-regime / intervention truncates the distribution — illustrative only.受管理体制/干预会截断分布 — 仅供示意。
What’s firing触发因素
EM weakening (ex-dollar)新兴走弱（剔除美元）
○
EM punished vs advanced FX新兴相对发达货币受罚
○
EM credit spreads widening新兴信用利差走阔
○
Offshore CNH outflow stress离岸人民币外流压力
○
EM-FX drawdown from peak新兴货币自高点回撤
○
EM equities falling新兴股市下跌
○
EM uniquely punished (vs advanced FX) with credit + CNH-basis stress — managed CNH makes this illustrative.新兴市场（相对发达货币）独受打击，伴随信用与离岸人民币基差压力 — 受管理的离岸人民币使其仅供示意。
Acute Safe-Haven Flight / Risk-Off急性避险 / 风险规避
0/3+ legs firing腿触发
0/100
stress intensity压力强度
Forward analogue from history历史远期类比
On the 7654 days at least this stressed, 8% saw the adverse move within 15d — vs a 8% base rate.在7654个至少同等压力的历史日中，8%在15天内出现不利走势 — 而无条件基率为8%。
95% CI 6–10% · n=7654 (neff≈510.3) · lift提升 +0pp · CIs overlap — lift not robust区间重叠 — 提升不稳健
Defining outcome界定结果: adverse move over不利走势于 15d天 · today’s stress is at the当前压力处于 0th %ile of history历史百分位.
What’s firing触发因素
Haven basket bid避险篮子受买盘
○
Risk currencies falling (breadth)风险货币普跌（广度）
○
Equity/bond vol spike股/债波动飙升
○
HY credit spreads widening高收益信用利差走阔
○
Growth-scare (copper + commodity-FX down)增长恐慌（铜与商品货币下跌）
○
Gold outrunning equities黄金跑赢股票
○
Havens (USD/JPY/CHF/gold) bid as risk currencies fall broadly, with a vol & credit spike.避险资产（美元/日元/瑞郎/黄金）受买盘，风险货币普跌，波动与信用同步飙升。
Reflation / Risk-On Melt-Up再通胀 / 风险偏好上行
2/3+ legs firing腿触发
50/100
stress intensity压力强度
Forward analogue from history历史远期类比
Insufficient history at this stress level此压力水平历史样本不足 (n=90, neff≈4.5).
Defining outcome界定结果: adverse move over不利走势于 20d天 · today’s stress is at the当前压力处于 98th %ile of history历史百分位.
What’s firing触发因素
Risk/commodity FX leading风险/商品货币领先
●
Risk−funder divergence风险−融资背离
●
Copper & oil tailwind铜与原油顺风
○
Credit tightening & vol low信用收窄、波动低
○
Inflation breakevens rising通胀盈亏平衡上行
○
FX dispersion (benign)外汇分化（良性）
○
Risk/commodity currencies lead funders with easy credit & low vol — the mirror of carry unwind (overextension is the risk).风险/商品货币领先融资货币，信用宽松、波动低 — 套息平仓的镜像（过度延伸才是风险）。
FX Intervention Risk (BoJ/MoF · SNB)外汇干预风险（日银/财务省 · 瑞士央行）
0/2+ legs firing腿触发
0/100
stress intensity压力强度
Forward analogue from history历史远期类比
On the 7497 days at least this stressed, 4% saw the adverse move within 10d — vs a 4% base rate.在7497个至少同等压力的历史日中，4%在10天内出现不利走势 — 而无条件基率为4%。
95% CI 2–5% · n=7497 (neff≈749.7) · lift提升 +0pp · CIs overlap — lift not robust区间重叠 — 提升不稳健
Defining outcome界定结果: adverse move over不利走势于 10d天 · today’s stress is at the当前压力处于 0th %ile of history历史百分位.
⚑ Managed-regime / intervention truncates the distribution — illustrative only.受管理体制/干预会截断分布 — 仅供示意。
What’s firing触发因素
USD/JPY rising fast (yen weak)美元/日元快速上行（日元偏弱）
○
USD/JPY at stretched highs美元/日元处于偏高水平
○
Disorderly one-way move无序单边走势
○
CHF haven inflow / CNH strain瑞郎避险流入 / 离岸人民币承压
○
US-front-end rate trend (context)美国短端利率趋势（背景）
○
Disorderly one-way USD/JPY into stretched highs (or CHF/CNH strain) — official intervention truncates the distribution.美元/日元单边无序冲向偏高水平（或瑞郎/离岸人民币承压）— 官方干预会截断分布。

Currency move kinematics货币走势动力学 · literal move + velocity + acceleration实际走势 + 速度 + 加速度

Currency货币 1d5d20d Velocity速度 Accel加速 Vol %ile波动百分位 Ex-$ 5d去美元5d State状态
USD -0.2 +0.1 +0.8 +0.1 +0.2 0 — quiet平静
EUR -0.2 +0.1 -0.1 +0.2 -0.8 13 +0.1 quiet平静
JPY -0.2 -0.1 -0.7 +0.1 -0.8 6 -0.1 quiet平静
GBP -0.6 +0.4 +2.0 +0.4 -1.3 23 +0.5 quiet平静
CHF +0.6 +0.4 -0.7 +0.5 +0.8 0 +0.5 quiet平静
AUD -0.3 +0.6 -0.4 +0.4 -0.7 23 +0.4 quiet平静
CAD -0.0 +0.9 +0.7 +1.6 -0.1 16 +0.8 moving up升势
CNH -0.2 +0.3 +0.0 +0.4 -0.5 0 +0.2 quiet平静
MXN +0.3 +1.1 -0.4 +1.0 +0.9 0 +1.0 accelerating up加速升
BRL -0.1 +1.4 +0.6 +0.9 -0.2 0 +0.9 moving up升势
Literal % move (1/5/20d, vs USD), velocity = recent speed in σ-units, acceleration = change in velocity, realized-vol percentile, and the idiosyncratic (ex-dollar residual) 5d move. COINCIDENT and DESCRIPTIVE — a read of how fast each currency is moving, never a forecast or a buy list.实际百分比走势（1/5/20天，对美元）、速度=近端走势的σ单位、加速度=速度变化、实现波动率百分位，以及特异（剔除美元残差）的5天走势。同步且描述性 — 衡量每种货币移动速度，绝非预测或买入清单。
§02

Dollar transmission — what a stronger/weaker USD pushes on美元传导 · 美元强弱推动了什么

contemporaneous co-movement, not a forecast同步共动，非预测

Cross-asset co-movement with the broad dollar与广义美元的跨资产共动

Today: a stronger dollar is a headwind for US equities, EM equities, Gold.当前美元走强；详见下表（同步关系，非预测）。

Asset资产 63d corr相关 252d If USD ↑若美元↑ Stability稳定性
Gold黄金
real-rate leg实际利率项 -0.24 vs Δreal-yield对Δ实际收益率		 -0.75 -0.48 headwind逆风 stable稳定
Copper铜 -0.66 -0.36 headwind逆风 stable稳定
US equities美国股票
calm平静 -0.31 · stress压力 -0.29		 -0.43 -0.36 headwind逆风 stable稳定
Oil (WTI)原油 +0.42 +0.41 tailwind顺风 stable稳定
EM equities新兴市场股票
calm平静 -0.48 · stress压力 -0.36		 -0.37 -0.46 headwind逆风 stable稳定
10y Treasury10年期国债 -0.35 -0.29 headwind逆风 stable稳定
Bitcoin比特币
calm平静 -0.09 · stress压力 -0.11		 -0.26 -0.20 headwind逆风 stable稳定

Correlation to the broad dollar与广义美元的相关性 · 63d

CONTEMPORANEOUS co-movement, not causation or a forecast. Dollar↔asset betas are regime-dependent and unstable — sign flips happen (the dollar move is often the same risk/tightening impulse). "If USD ↑" reads off today's sign and can reverse. The EM channel has a slow (~1–1.5y) financial-conditions lead in the literature; everything in this grid is daily and coincident.同步共动，非因果或预测。美元与各资产的贝塔随格局变化且不稳定 — 符号会翻转（美元波动往往就是同一个风险/紧缩脉冲）。"若美元↑"读取的是当前符号，可能反转。文献中新兴市场渠道存在约1–1.5年的金融条件领先；本表均为日频同步关系。
§03

Currency strength meter货币强弱计

which currencies lead, independent of any single pair — descriptive trend, not a buy list哪些货币领先，独立于任一货币对 — 描述性趋势，非买入清单

Trailing strength vs the average currency相对平均货币的近端强弱

GBP
+1.9%
CAD
+1.4%
BRLEM新兴
+1.3%
AUD
+1.2%
CHF
+0.2%
USD
+0.0%
MXNEM新兴
-0.4%
CNHEM新兴
-0.4%
EUR
-0.6%
JPY
-0.6%
Trailing strength vs other currencies and vs USD. Descriptive trend only; green does not mean buy.相对其他货币与美元的近端强弱。仅描述趋势；绿色不代表买入。
§04

Currency board — idiosyncratic (ex-dollar) signals货币面板 · 特异（剥离美元）信号

each pair scored on its move AFTER stripping the shared dollar beta — the only calibrated, scored leg每个货币对在剥离共同美元贝塔后评分 — 唯一经校准、参与评分的部分
Majors主要货币 · 2
EUR/USD欧元/美元
Major主要货币 · signal on信号针对 EUR
1.1442
-0.6% / 1mo
Risk-context: net short EUR (-22)风险背景：EUR 净偏空（-22）
SHORT做空 score评分 -22 · confidence信心 76% measured已校准
Led by risk index, positioning (cot).主导因素：风险指数、持仓（COT）。
Risk-context / regime read — not a trade call. FX fails UIP and carry carries fat-tailed crash risk; treat as context, not alpha.风险背景/格局解读 — 非交易建议。外汇不满足UIP，套息具肥尾崩盘风险；仅作背景，非超额收益。
Carry & Rates套息与利率
Carry (rate diff)套息（利差）
×-0.12~
Rate diff (10y)利差（10年）
×0.04·
Risk & Positioning风险与持仓
Risk index风险指数
×-0.14⇄
Positioning (COT)持仓（COT）
×-0.14⇄
Risk appetite风险偏好
×0.12~
Shocks冲击
Residual shock残差冲击
×0.03·
Trend & Structure趋势与结构
Trend (idiosyncratic)趋势（特异）
×-0.28⇄
Price structure价格结构
×0.03·
Value估值
Value (REER)估值（REER）
×0.12✓
Carry (rate diff)套息（利差）-1.38%
Carry / vol套息/波动-0.31
$ beta美元贝塔-0.51
Risk idx风险指数6.0
Multi-timeframe (technical)多周期（技术面） · CAUTION谨慎
TF周期RSIStochMACDTrend趋势
Daily日线 48.0 93.0 + ▲
3-Day3日 42.0 52.0 − ▼
Weekly周线 42.0 23.0 − ▼
Biweekly双周 46.0 1.0 − ▼
Monthly月线 52.0 10.0 ↓ ▼
Unconfirmed turn within a bearish bigger picture偏空大格局内的未确认转向
Technical timing overlay only; not return-validated alpha.仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证的阿尔法。
GBP/USD英镑/美元
Major主要货币 · signal on信号针对 GBP
1.3466
+2.0% / 1mo
Risk-context: net neutral GBP (+4)风险背景：GBP 净中性（+4）
FLAT观望 score评分 +4 · confidence信心 59% measured已校准
Led by positioning (cot), risk appetite.主导因素：持仓（COT）、风险偏好。
Risk-context / regime read — not a trade call. FX fails UIP and carry carries fat-tailed crash risk; treat as context, not alpha.风险背景/格局解读 — 非交易建议。外汇不满足UIP，套息具肥尾崩盘风险；仅作背景，非超额收益。
Carry & Rates套息与利率
Carry (rate diff)套息（利差）
×-0.22⇄
Rate diff (10y)利差（10年）
×0.04·
Risk & Positioning风险与持仓
Risk index风险指数
×-0.07~
Positioning (COT)持仓（COT）
×0.07~
Risk appetite风险偏好
×0.22✓
Shocks冲击
Residual shock残差冲击
×0.03·
Trend & Structure趋势与结构
Trend (idiosyncratic)趋势（特异）
×-0.27⇄
Price structure价格结构
×0.03·
Value估值
Value (REER)估值（REER）
×0.06~
Carry (rate diff)套息（利差）+0.12%
Carry / vol套息/波动0.02
$ beta美元贝塔-0.44
Risk idx风险指数2.0
Multi-timeframe (technical)多周期（技术面） · CAUTION谨慎
TF周期RSIStochMACDTrend趋势
Daily日线 59.0 79.0 ↓ ▲
3-Day3日 53.0 92.0 ↑ ▲
Weekly周线 53.0 62.0 − ▼
Biweekly双周 53.0 22.0 ↑ —
Monthly月线 54.0 19.0 ↑ ▼
Unconfirmed turn within a bearish bigger picture偏空大格局内的未确认转向
Technical timing overlay only; not return-validated alpha.仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证的阿尔法。
Commodity dollars商品货币 · 2
AUD/USD澳元/美元
Commodity-dollar商品货币 · signal on信号针对 AUD
0.6984
+1.2% / 1mo
Risk-context: net short AUD (-39)风险背景：AUD 净偏空（-39）
SHORT做空 score评分 -39 · confidence信心 82% measured已校准
Led by risk index, value (reer).主导因素：风险指数、估值（REER）。
Risk-context / regime read — not a trade call. FX fails UIP and carry carries fat-tailed crash risk; treat as context, not alpha.风险背景/格局解读 — 非交易建议。外汇不满足UIP，套息具肥尾崩盘风险；仅作背景，非超额收益。
Carry & Rates套息与利率
Rate diff (10y)利差（10年）
×0.07·
Carry (rate diff)套息（利差）
×0.10·
Risk & Positioning风险与持仓
Risk index风险指数
×-0.24⇄
Risk appetite风险偏好
×0.10·
Positioning (COT)持仓（COT）
×0.06·
Shocks冲击
Residual shock残差冲击
×0.05·
Trend & Structure趋势与结构
Trend (idiosyncratic)趋势（特异）
×0.12·
Price structure价格结构
×0.05·
Value估值
Value (REER)估值（REER）
×0.21✓
Carry (rate diff)套息（利差）+0.80%
Carry / vol套息/波动0.12
$ beta美元贝塔-0.49
Risk idx风险指数3.0
Multi-timeframe (technical)多周期（技术面） · CAUTION谨慎
TF周期RSIStochMACDTrend趋势
Daily日线 53.0 92.0 ↓ —
3-Day3日 47.0 34.0 − ▼
Weekly周线 51.0 15.0 ↑ —
Biweekly双周 56.0 9.0 ↓ ▼
Monthly月线 57.0 61.0 + ▲
Unconfirmed turn within a bearish bigger picture偏空大格局内的未确认转向
Technical timing overlay only; not return-validated alpha.仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证的阿尔法。
USD/CAD美元/加元
Commodity-dollar商品货币 · signal on信号针对 CAD
1.404
-1.4% / 1mo
Risk-context: net neutral CAD (+9)风险背景：CAD 净中性（+9）
FLAT观望 score评分 +9 · confidence信心 61% measured已校准
Led by carry (rate diff), positioning (cot).主导因素：套息（利差）、持仓（COT）。
Risk-context / regime read — not a trade call. FX fails UIP and carry carries fat-tailed crash risk; treat as context, not alpha.风险背景/格局解读 — 非交易建议。外汇不满足UIP，套息具肥尾崩盘风险；仅作背景，非超额收益。
Carry & Rates套息与利率
Carry (rate diff)套息（利差）
×-0.28⇄
Rate diff (10y)利差（10年）
×0.05·
Risk & Positioning风险与持仓
Positioning (COT)持仓（COT）
×0.17✓
Risk index风险指数
×-0.08~
Risk appetite风险偏好
×0.07·
Shocks冲击
Residual shock残差冲击
×-0.13⇄
Trend & Structure趋势与结构
Price structure价格结构
×-0.07~
Trend (idiosyncratic)趋势（特异）
×0.08·
Value估值
Value (REER)估值（REER）
×0.07~
Carry (rate diff)套息（利差）-1.34%
Carry / vol套息/波动-0.41
$ beta美元贝塔-0.25
Risk idx风险指数6.0
Multi-timeframe (technical)多周期（技术面） · CAUTION谨慎
TF周期RSIStochMACDTrend趋势
Daily日线 65.0 99.0 + ▲
3-Day3日 43.0 43.0 − ▼
Weekly周线 43.0 16.0 − ▼
Biweekly双周 44.0 12.0 ↑ ▼
Monthly月线 45.0 23.0 + —
Unconfirmed turn within a bearish bigger picture偏空大格局内的未确认转向
Technical timing overlay only; not return-validated alpha.仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证的阿尔法。
Haven-funders避险/融资货币 · 2
USD/JPY美元/日元
Haven-funder避险/融资货币 · signal on信号针对 JPY
162.46
+0.6% / 1mo
Risk-context: net short JPY (-45)风险背景：JPY 净偏空（-45）
SHORT做空 score评分 -45 · confidence信心 94% measured已校准
Led by trend (idiosyncratic), risk index.主导因素：趋势（特异）、风险指数。
Risk-context / regime read — not a trade call. FX fails UIP and carry carries fat-tailed crash risk; treat as context, not alpha.风险背景/格局解读 — 非交易建议。外汇不满足UIP，套息具肥尾崩盘风险；仅作背景，非超额收益。
Carry & Rates套息与利率
Carry (rate diff)套息（利差）
×0.07·
Rate diff (10y)利差（10年）
×0.05·
Risk & Positioning风险与持仓
Risk index风险指数
×-0.08~
Positioning (COT)持仓（COT）
×-0.08~
Risk appetite风险偏好
×0.14~
Shocks冲击
Residual shock残差冲击
×0.06~
Trend & Structure趋势与结构
Trend (idiosyncratic)趋势（特异）
×0.33✓
Price structure价格结构
×0.04·
Value估值
Value (REER)估值（REER）
×-0.15⇄
Carry (rate diff)套息（利差）-2.90%
Carry / vol套息/波动-0.86
$ beta美元贝塔-0.38
Risk idx风险指数1.0
Multi-timeframe (technical)多周期（技术面） · AVOID回避
TF周期RSIStochMACDTrend趋势
Daily日线 40.0 88.0 ↓ ▼
3-Day3日 35.0 21.0 − ▼
Weekly周线 36.0 4.0 − ▼
Biweekly双周 37.0 7.0 − ▼
Monthly月线 37.0 3.0 − ▼
Downtrend confirmed across timeframes各周期确认下行
Technical timing overlay only; not return-validated alpha.仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证的阿尔法。
USD/CHF美元/瑞郎
Haven-funder避险/融资货币 · signal on信号针对 CHF
0.8047
-0.2% / 1mo
Risk-context: net neutral CHF (+11)风险背景：CHF 净中性（+11）
FLAT观望 score评分 +11 · confidence信心 63% measured已校准
Led by carry (rate diff), price structure. SNB has historically capped CHF (2015 floor gapped ~20%).主导因素：套息（利差）、价格结构。 瑞士央行历史上设过下限（2015年跳空约20%）。
⚑ SNB has historically capped CHF (2015 floor gapped ~20%).瑞士央行历史上设过下限（2015年跳空约20%）。
Risk-context / regime read — not a trade call. FX fails UIP and carry carries fat-tailed crash risk; treat as context, not alpha.风险背景/格局解读 — 非交易建议。外汇不满足UIP，套息具肥尾崩盘风险；仅作背景，非超额收益。
Carry & Rates套息与利率
Carry (rate diff)套息（利差）
×-0.21⇄
Rate diff (10y)利差（10年）
×0.08~
Risk & Positioning风险与持仓
Risk index风险指数
×-0.13⇄
Risk appetite风险偏好
×0.05·
Positioning (COT)持仓（COT）
×0.03·
Shocks冲击
Residual shock残差冲击
×-0.10⇄
Trend & Structure趋势与结构
Price structure价格结构
×-0.11⇄
Trend (idiosyncratic)趋势（特异）
×-0.26⇄
Value估值
Value (REER)估值（REER）
×0.03·
Carry (rate diff)套息（利差）-3.67%
Carry / vol套息/波动-0.64
$ beta美元贝塔-0.46
Risk idx风险指数7.0
Multi-timeframe (technical)多周期（技术面） · CAUTION谨慎
TF周期RSIStochMACDTrend趋势
Daily日线 51.0 59.0 + ▲
3-Day3日 44.0 21.0 ↑ ▼
Weekly周线 43.0 23.0 − ▼
Biweekly双周 48.0 8.0 − ▼
Monthly月线 55.0 10.0 ↓ ▼
Unconfirmed turn within a bearish bigger picture偏空大格局内的未确认转向
Technical timing overlay only; not return-validated alpha.仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证的阿尔法。
Emerging markets新兴市场 · 3
USD/MXN美元/墨西哥比索
EM新兴市场 · signal on信号针对 MXN
17.37
+0.4% / 1mo
Risk-context: net short MXN (-31)风险背景：MXN 净偏空（-31）
SHORT做空 score评分 -31 · confidence信心 74% measured已校准
Led by trend (idiosyncratic), risk index.主导因素：趋势（特异）、风险指数。
Risk-context / regime read — not a trade call. FX fails UIP and carry carries fat-tailed crash risk; treat as context, not alpha.风险背景/格局解读 — 非交易建议。外汇不满足UIP，套息具肥尾崩盘风险；仅作背景，非超额收益。
Risk & Positioning风险与持仓
Risk index风险指数
×-0.14⇄
Positioning (COT)持仓（COT）
×0.07~
Risk appetite风险偏好
×0.06·
Shocks冲击
Residual shock残差冲击
×-0.11⇄
Trend & Structure趋势与结构
Trend (idiosyncratic)趋势（特异）
×-0.28⇄
Price structure价格结构
×-0.12⇄
Value估值
Value (REER)估值（REER）
×0.06~
Carry (rate diff)套息（利差）—
Carry / vol套息/波动—
$ beta美元贝塔-0.51
Risk idx风险指数2.0
Carry is CONTEXT-only — no clean free front-end rate for this currency.套息仅作背景 — 该货币无可靠的免费短端利率。
Multi-timeframe (technical)多周期（技术面） · TREND-FOLLOW顺势
TF周期RSIStochMACDTrend趋势
Daily日线 55.0 79.0 ↑ ▲
3-Day3日 53.0 32.0 − ▼
Weekly周线 56.0 16.0 ↑ ▲
Biweekly双周 62.0 23.0 ↓ ▼
Monthly月线 60.0 63.0 + ▲
Aligned uptrend across timeframes各周期一致向上
Technical timing overlay only; not return-validated alpha.仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证的阿尔法。
USD/BRL美元/巴西雷亚尔
EM新兴市场 · signal on信号针对 BRL
5.0909
-1.3% / 1mo
Risk-context: net neutral BRL (-9)风险背景：BRL 净中性（-9）
FLAT观望 score评分 -9 · confidence信心 49% measured已校准
Led by trend (idiosyncratic), risk appetite.主导因素：趋势（特异）、风险偏好。
Risk-context / regime read — not a trade call. FX fails UIP and carry carries fat-tailed crash risk; treat as context, not alpha.风险背景/格局解读 — 非交易建议。外汇不满足UIP，套息具肥尾崩盘风险；仅作背景，非超额收益。
Risk & Positioning风险与持仓
Risk index风险指数
×-0.18⇄
Risk appetite风险偏好
×0.08·
Positioning (COT)持仓（COT）
×-0.18⇄
Shocks冲击
Residual shock残差冲击
×0.04·
Trend & Structure趋势与结构
Trend (idiosyncratic)趋势（特异）
×0.18~
Price structure价格结构
×0.04·
Value估值
Value (REER)估值（REER）
×0.08~
Carry (rate diff)套息（利差）—
Carry / vol套息/波动—
$ beta美元贝塔-0.15
Risk idx风险指数2.0
Carry is CONTEXT-only — no clean free front-end rate for this currency.套息仅作背景 — 该货币无可靠的免费短端利率。
Multi-timeframe (technical)多周期（技术面） · CAUTION谨慎
TF周期RSIStochMACDTrend趋势
Daily日线 58.0 88.0 + ▲
3-Day3日 53.0 48.0 − ▼
Weekly周线 56.0 24.0 − —
Biweekly双周 58.0 27.0 ↓ ▼
Monthly月线 57.0 77.0 + ▲
Unconfirmed turn within a bearish bigger picture偏空大格局内的未确认转向
Technical timing overlay only; not return-validated alpha.仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证的阿尔法。
USD/CNH美元/离岸人民币
EM · managed新兴市场·受管理 · signal on信号针对 CNH
6.7505
+0.4% / 1mo
Risk-context: net neutral CNH (+15)风险背景：CNH 净中性（+15）
FLAT观望 score评分 +15 · confidence信心 53% measured signs · dampened已测符号 · 折减
Led by trend (idiosyncratic), risk index. Managed regime — the official fix sets the level; read as risk-context only.主导因素：趋势（特异）、风险指数。 受管理汇率 — 由中间价决定水平；仅作风险背景解读。
⚑ Managed regime — the official fix sets the level; read as risk-context only.受管理汇率 — 由中间价决定水平；仅作风险背景解读。
Risk-context / regime read — not a trade call. FX fails UIP and carry carries fat-tailed crash risk; treat as context, not alpha.风险背景/格局解读 — 非交易建议。外汇不满足UIP，套息具肥尾崩盘风险；仅作背景，非超额收益。
Risk & Positioning风险与持仓
Risk index风险指数
×0.11–
Risk appetite风险偏好
×0.18–
Shocks冲击
Residual shock残差冲击
×0.08–
Trend & Structure趋势与结构
Trend (idiosyncratic)趋势（特异）
×0.21–
Price structure价格结构
×0.09–
Value估值
Value (REER)估值（REER）
×0.09–
Offshore–onshore CNH basis离岸–在岸人民币基差: -39 bps — broadly aligned with the onshore fix.与在岸中间价大体一致。
Carry (rate diff)套息（利差）—
Carry / vol套息/波动—
$ beta美元贝塔-0.46
Risk idx风险指数10.0
Carry is CONTEXT-only — no clean free front-end rate for this currency.套息仅作背景 — 该货币无可靠的免费短端利率。
Multi-timeframe (technical)多周期（技术面） · TREND-FOLLOW顺势
TF周期RSIStochMACDTrend趋势
Daily日线 56.0 82.0 − —
3-Day3日 65.0 12.0 − —
Weekly周线 73.0 28.0 + ▲
Biweekly双周 77.0 93.0 + ▲
Monthly月线 68.0 100.0 ↓ ▲
Aligned uptrend across timeframes各周期一致向上
Technical timing overlay only; not return-validated alpha.仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证的阿尔法。
§05

Carry & valuation — cross-pair套息与估值 · 跨货币对

Carry & valuation — cross-pair套息与估值 · 跨货币对

Pair货币对 Carry %套息 % Carry/vol套息/波动 10y diff10年利差 REER gap %REER偏离 % $ beta美元贝塔
AUD/USD +0.80 +0.12 +0.41 +8.8 -0.49
GBP/USD +0.12 +0.02 +0.36 +2.9 -0.44
USD/CAD -1.34 -0.41 -1.04 -3.4 -0.25
EUR/USD -1.38 -0.31 -1.36 +2.8 -0.51
USD/JPY -2.90 -0.86 -1.93 -12.7 -0.38
USD/CHF -3.67 -0.64 -4.14 +2.6 -0.46
USD/MXN — — — +11.2 -0.51
USD/BRL — — — +8.5 -0.15
USD/CNH — — — -5.1 -0.46
Carry is foreign minus US short rates. REER gap shows rich/cheap vs 5y history. Carry can crash in stress.套息为外币减美国短端利率。REER偏离显示相对5年历史的贵/便宜。套息在压力期可能崩盘。
§06

International scorecards国际记分卡

PIT backtests of risky premia, not free alpha风险溢价的时点回测，非免费阿尔法
G10 carry basketG10套息篮子
Long high-carry G10, short low-carry. Real premium, but risk-off crashes matter more than Sharpe.做多高套息G10、做空低套息。是真实溢价，但避险崩盘比夏普更重要。
CAGR年化+0.7%
Sharpe夏普0.13
Max DD最大回撤-38%
CAGR年化Sharpe夏普MaxDD回撤
Full全样本 +0.7% 0.13 -38%
Pre-0808前 +0.7% 0.15 -18%
Post-0808后 +0.8% 0.13 -37%
Skew偏度-0.97-19%
Now当前: long做多 AUD GBP CAD · short做空 EUR JPY CHF
Net of净额扣除 2bp one-way cost · display-only / experimental · span单边成本 · 仅供展示/实验 · 区间 1996-10-30..2026-07-17
Risk-off haven basket避险货币篮子
Mirror of carry: long havens, short risk currencies. Usually bleeds; pays during stress.套息的镜像：做多避险、做空风险货币。平时消耗，在压力期支付。
CAGR年化-2.1%
Sharpe夏普-0.14
Max DD最大回撤-49%
CAGR年化Sharpe夏普MaxDD回撤
Full全样本 -2.1% -0.14 -49%
Pre-0808前 -2.9% -0.22 -38%
Post-0808后 -1.6% -0.09 -46%
Skew偏度1.04-14%
Static静态: long做多 JPY CHF · short做空 AUD CAD MXN BRL CNH
annualized return年化收益: calm平静 -8% · risk-off避险 +8%
Net of净额扣除 2bp one-way cost · display-only / experimental · span单边成本 · 仅供展示/实验 · 区间 1996-10-30..2026-07-17
Dollar trend overlay美元趋势叠加
Long DXY only when its 12-month trend is up. A drawdown filter, not alpha.仅在美元12个月趋势向上时做多。是回撤过滤器，非阿尔法。
CAGR年化+0.5%
Sharpe夏普0.12
Max DD最大回撤-33%
CAGR年化Sharpe夏普MaxDD回撤
Full全样本 +0.5% 0.12 -33%
Pre-0808前 +1.0% 0.20 -33%
Post-0808后 -0.4% -0.03 -24%
Skew偏度-0.22-10%
Now当前: long the dollar (trend up)做多美元（趋势向上） · buy & hold MaxDD买入持有最大回撤 -57%
Net of净额扣除 2bp one-way cost · display-only / experimental · span单边成本 · 仅供展示/实验 · 区间 1971-01-04..2026-07-16

Alert timeline警报时间线 · 97 events · last事件 · 近 60d

Wed Jul 15
Shock GBP/USD GBP/USD: GBP exogenous bid detectedGBP/USD：GBP 检测到外生买盘
Tue Jul 14
Shock USD/CHF USD/CHF: CHF exogenous pressure detectedUSD/CHF：CHF 检测到外生压力
Shock GBP/USD GBP/USD: GBP exogenous bid detectedGBP/USD：GBP 检测到外生买盘
Mon Jul 13
Momentum GBP/USD GBP/USD: GBP momentum → bullGBP/USD：GBP 动量 → 看多
Fri Jul 10
Structure USD/MXN USD/MXN: MXN structure → brokenUSD/MXN：MXN 结构 → 破位
Shock GBP/USD GBP/USD: GBP exogenous bid detectedGBP/USD：GBP 检测到外生买盘
Thu Jul 09
Momentum GBP/USD GBP/USD: GBP momentum → bullGBP/USD：GBP 动量 → 看多
Risk USD/BRL USD/BRL risk turned CalmUSD/BRL 风险转为平静
Tue Jul 07
COT EUR/USD EUR/USD COT crowded shortEUR/USD COT 空头拥挤
Mon Jul 06
Risk USD/MXN USD/MXN risk turned CalmUSD/MXN 风险转为平静
Momentum USD/BRL USD/BRL: BRL momentum → bearUSD/BRL：BRL 动量 → 看空
Sun Jul 05
Risk AUD/USD AUD/USD risk turned CalmAUD/USD 风险转为平静
Fri Jul 03
Shock EUR/USD EUR/USD: EUR exogenous pressure detectedEUR/USD：EUR 检测到外生压力
Risk USD/CHF USD/CHF risk turned CalmUSD/CHF 风险转为平静
Wed Jul 01
Risk GBP/USD GBP/USD risk turned CalmGBP/USD 风险转为平静
Mon Jun 29
Shock USD/CHF USD/CHF: CHF exogenous pressure detectedUSD/CHF：CHF 检测到外生压力
Sun Jun 28
Shock AUD/USD AUD/USD: AUD exogenous pressure detectedAUD/USD：AUD 检测到外生压力
Shock USD/CAD USD/CAD: CAD exogenous pressure detectedUSD/CAD：CAD 检测到外生压力
Fri Jun 26
Shock AUD/USD AUD/USD: AUD exogenous pressure detectedAUD/USD：AUD 检测到外生压力
Thu Jun 25
Risk USD/MXN USD/MXN risk turned ElevatedUSD/MXN 风险转为升高
Wed Jun 24
Shock USD/CHF USD/CHF: CHF exogenous pressure detectedUSD/CHF：CHF 检测到外生压力
Shock EUR/USD EUR/USD: EUR exogenous pressure detectedEUR/USD：EUR 检测到外生压力
Tue Jun 23
Shock USD/MXN USD/MXN: MXN exogenous bid detectedUSD/MXN：MXN 检测到外生买盘
Dollar Dollar Dollar regime → US growth premium美元格局 → 美国增长溢价
Shock USD/CHF USD/CHF: CHF exogenous pressure detectedUSD/CHF：CHF 检测到外生压力
Shock USD/CAD USD/CAD: CAD exogenous pressure detectedUSD/CAD：CAD 检测到外生压力
Mon Jun 22
Trend USD/CHF USD/CHF: CHF 12-month trend turned downUSD/CHF：CHF 12个月趋势转为下降
Momentum USD/BRL USD/BRL: BRL momentum → bearUSD/BRL：BRL 动量 → 看空
Sun Jun 21
Structure GBP/USD GBP/USD: GBP structure → brokenGBP/USD：GBP 结构 → 破位
Structure USD/JPY USD/JPY: JPY structure → brokenUSD/JPY：JPY 结构 → 破位
Momentum GBP/USD GBP/USD: GBP momentum → bearGBP/USD：GBP 动量 → 看空
Sat Jun 20
Momentum GBP/USD GBP/USD: GBP momentum → bearGBP/USD：GBP 动量 → 看空
Momentum AUD/USD AUD/USD: AUD momentum → bearAUD/USD：AUD 动量 → 看空
Shock USD/CAD USD/CAD: CAD exogenous pressure detectedUSD/CAD：CAD 检测到外生压力
Structure USD/JPY USD/JPY: JPY structure → brokenUSD/JPY：JPY 结构 → 破位
Fri Jun 19
Shock USD/CHF USD/CHF: CHF exogenous pressure detectedUSD/CHF：CHF 检测到外生压力
Shock EUR/USD EUR/USD: EUR exogenous pressure detectedEUR/USD：EUR 检测到外生压力
Shock GBP/USD GBP/USD: GBP exogenous pressure detectedGBP/USD：GBP 检测到外生压力
Thu Jun 18
Risk GBP/USD GBP/USD risk turned ElevatedGBP/USD 风险转为升高
Shock USD/CHF USD/CHF: CHF exogenous pressure detectedUSD/CHF：CHF 检测到外生压力
Shock EUR/USD EUR/USD: EUR exogenous pressure detectedEUR/USD：EUR 检测到外生压力
Wed Jun 17
Dollar Dollar Dollar regime → Global reflation美元格局 → 全球再通胀
Shock USD/CAD USD/CAD: CAD exogenous pressure detectedUSD/CAD：CAD 检测到外生压力
Shock USD/CHF USD/CHF: CHF exogenous pressure detectedUSD/CHF：CHF 检测到外生压力
Risk USD/CHF USD/CHF risk turned CalmUSD/CHF 风险转为平静
Tue Jun 16
Trend EUR/USD EUR/USD: EUR 12-month trend turned downEUR/USD：EUR 12个月趋势转为下降
Shock USD/CAD USD/CAD: CAD exogenous pressure detectedUSD/CAD：CAD 检测到外生压力
Mon Jun 15
Shock GBP/USD GBP/USD: GBP exogenous bid detectedGBP/USD：GBP 检测到外生买盘
Shock USD/CHF USD/CHF: CHF exogenous pressure detectedUSD/CHF：CHF 检测到外生压力
Shock USD/CAD USD/CAD: CAD exogenous pressure detectedUSD/CAD：CAD 检测到外生压力
Momentum USD/MXN USD/MXN: MXN momentum → bullUSD/MXN：MXN 动量 → 看多
Sun Jun 14
Risk GBP/USD GBP/USD risk turned CalmGBP/USD 风险转为平静
Shock USD/MXN USD/MXN: MXN exogenous bid detectedUSD/MXN：MXN 检测到外生买盘
Sat Jun 13
Shock USD/CHF USD/CHF: CHF exogenous pressure detectedUSD/CHF：CHF 检测到外生压力
Structure AUD/USD AUD/USD: AUD structure → brokenAUD/USD：AUD 结构 → 破位
Shock USD/CAD USD/CAD: CAD exogenous pressure detectedUSD/CAD：CAD 检测到外生压力
Fri Jun 12
Risk GBP/USD GBP/USD risk turned CalmGBP/USD 风险转为平静
Risk USD/JPY USD/JPY risk turned CalmUSD/JPY 风险转为平静
Thu Jun 11
Momentum GBP/USD GBP/USD: GBP momentum → bearGBP/USD：GBP 动量 → 看空
Structure GBP/USD GBP/USD: GBP structure → brokenGBP/USD：GBP 结构 → 破位
Structure USD/CHF USD/CHF: CHF structure → brokenUSD/CHF：CHF 结构 → 破位
Structure USD/BRL USD/BRL: BRL structure → brokenUSD/BRL：BRL 结构 → 破位
Tue Jun 09
Risk GBP/USD GBP/USD risk turned ElevatedGBP/USD 风险转为升高
Shock USD/BRL USD/BRL: BRL exogenous pressure detectedUSD/BRL：BRL 检测到外生压力
Risk USD/CAD USD/CAD risk turned CalmUSD/CAD 风险转为平静
Mon Jun 08
Risk USD/CHF USD/CHF risk turned ElevatedUSD/CHF 风险转为升高
Momentum USD/CHF USD/CHF: CHF momentum → bearUSD/CHF：CHF 动量 → 看空
Risk USD/CAD USD/CAD risk turned CalmUSD/CAD 风险转为平静
Structure USD/CAD USD/CAD: CAD structure → brokenUSD/CAD：CAD 结构 → 破位
Risk AUD/USD AUD/USD risk turned ElevatedAUD/USD 风险转为升高
Fri Jun 05
Shock EUR/USD EUR/USD: EUR exogenous bid detectedEUR/USD：EUR 检测到外生买盘
Shock USD/MXN USD/MXN: MXN exogenous bid detectedUSD/MXN：MXN 检测到外生买盘
Thu Jun 04
Structure EUR/USD EUR/USD: EUR structure → brokenEUR/USD：EUR 结构 → 破位
Risk USD/BRL USD/BRL risk turned ElevatedUSD/BRL 风险转为升高
Wed Jun 03
Shock USD/MXN USD/MXN: MXN exogenous bid detectedUSD/MXN：MXN 检测到外生买盘
Risk USD/BRL USD/BRL risk turned CalmUSD/BRL 风险转为平静
Risk EUR/USD EUR/USD risk turned CalmEUR/USD 风险转为平静
Risk AUD/USD AUD/USD risk turned CalmAUD/USD 风险转为平静
Tue Jun 02
Shock USD/CAD USD/CAD: CAD exogenous pressure detectedUSD/CAD：CAD 检测到外生压力
Mon Jun 01
Risk EUR/USD EUR/USD risk turned CalmEUR/USD 风险转为平静
Fri May 29
Risk GBP/USD GBP/USD risk turned CalmGBP/USD 风险转为平静
Momentum USD/JPY USD/JPY: JPY momentum → bearUSD/JPY：JPY 动量 → 看空
Thu May 28
Momentum USD/CAD USD/CAD: CAD momentum → bearUSD/CAD：CAD 动量 → 看空
Mon May 25
Risk EUR/USD EUR/USD risk turned ElevatedEUR/USD 风险转为升高
Shock USD/CHF USD/CHF: CHF exogenous bid detectedUSD/CHF：CHF 检测到外生买盘
Fri May 22
Momentum EUR/USD EUR/USD: EUR momentum → bearEUR/USD：EUR 动量 → 看空
Risk USD/JPY USD/JPY risk turned ElevatedUSD/JPY 风险转为升高
Thu May 21
Shock USD/JPY USD/JPY: JPY exogenous bid detectedUSD/JPY：JPY 检测到外生买盘
Trend USD/CAD USD/CAD: CAD 12-month trend turned downUSD/CAD：CAD 12个月趋势转为下降
Risk EUR/USD EUR/USD risk turned ElevatedEUR/USD 风险转为升高
Shock USD/CNH USD/CNH: CNH exogenous bid detectedUSD/CNH：CNH 检测到外生买盘
Wed May 20
Risk AUD/USD AUD/USD risk turned ElevatedAUD/USD 风险转为升高
Tue May 19
Trend GBP/USD GBP/USD: GBP 12-month trend turned downGBP/USD：GBP 12个月趋势转为下降
COT GBP/USD GBP/USD COT crowded shortGBP/USD COT 空头拥挤
Shock USD/CHF USD/CHF: CHF exogenous bid detectedUSD/CHF：CHF 检测到外生买盘
COT USD/BRL USD/BRL COT crowded longUSD/BRL COT 多头拥挤
Risk USD/CAD USD/CAD risk turned ElevatedUSD/CAD 风险转为升高
Daily state changes only. Context, not signals.仅日度状态变化。背景，非信号。

How to read this · and what it is not如何解读 · 以及它不是什么

Pairs are scored on ex-dollar residuals: trend, carry, risk appetite, shocks and positioning when available.货币对基于去美元残差评分：趋势、套息、风险偏好、冲击及可用持仓。

Honesty bar.诚信底线。 FX is hard to forecast and carry can crash in stress. Treat these reads as risk context, not alpha or trade signals.外汇难以预测，套息在压力期可能崩盘。请将这些读数视为风险背景，而非阿尔法或交易信号。

Dollar Desk.美元桌。 Display-only. The dollar is often the tightening impulse itself; the lean is a context summary, not a buy/sell call.仅展示。美元波动常常就是紧缩冲击本身；倾向只是背景汇总，不是买卖判断。

Stress Radar.压力雷达。 Shows past base rates for similar currency stress setups. Thin history means wide uncertainty.显示类似货币压力情景的历史基率。样本薄意味着不确定性宽。

Data.数据。 Yahoo FX, FRED rates and liquidity, BIS REER, CFTC COT, Fed funds futures and MOVE.Yahoo外汇、FRED利率与流动性、BIS REER、CFTC COT、联邦基金期货与MOVE。

History历史 1996-10-30..2026-07-17 · built构建于 2026-07-17 17:04 UTC