🛰️ Alternative Data另类数据

China Alternative-Data Desk中国另类数据台

Smart-money convergence (consensus × valuation × financing) + an honest signal scorecard · context only · as of主力共振(一致预期 × 估值 × 融资)+诚实信号记分卡 · 仅供参考 · 截至 2026-07-17

No validated edge is claimed. Convergence is a display JOIN of three independent free feeds — where they agree, not a backtest. A-share cross-sectional value Sharpe is negative and sell-side ratings are near-universally "buy"; treat this as a watchlist seed + a Phase-0 candidate, never a sizer.不声称任何已验证的优势。共振只是三个独立免费数据源的展示性合并——展示其一致之处,而非回测。A股横截面价值夏普为负、卖方评级近乎全为『买入』;请将其视为自选股种子与Phase-0候选,绝非仓位依据。

🎯 Multi-feed convergence多源共振 ≥3 of 7 independent feeds agree7源中≥3源一致 · 3991

Cross-sectional mid-rank percentile per feed (signed, −1 distribute … +1 accumulate): consensus · valuation · financing · 主力资金 flow · 千股千评 attention · 龙虎榜 hot-money · 大宗交易 block. No validated edge claimed.每个数据源的横截面中位排名分位(带符号,−1派发…+1吸筹):一致预期·估值·融资·主力资金·千股千评·龙虎榜·大宗交易。不声称已验证优势。

Ticker代码Name名称 Convergence共振Conviction置信%ile分位 Consensus一致Value估值Financing融资 Flow主力Comment千评LHB龙虎Block大宗 Flags标记
688669.SS688669.SS +0.92 High +高置信 ↑ 99.9 ··+0.95 +0.93+0.88·· leverage_crowdedleverage_crowded
301222.SZ301222.SZ +0.92 High +高置信 ↑ 99.9 ··+0.95 +0.96+0.83·· leverage_crowdedleverage_crowded
688093.SS688093.SS +0.90 High +高置信 ↑ 99.8 ··+0.87 +0.90+0.93··
600469.SS600469.SS +0.88 High +高置信 ↑ 99.8 ··+0.85 +0.91+0.89··
301027.SZ301027.SZ +0.88 High +高置信 ↑ 99.8 ··+0.79 +0.94+0.93··
688479.SS688479.SS +0.87 High +高置信 ↑ 99.7 ··+0.95 +0.97+0.96-0.43· leverage_crowdedleverage_crowded
000554.SZ000554.SZ +0.86 High +高置信 ↑ 99.6 ··+0.72 +0.94+0.95··
688558.SS688558.SS +0.86 High +高置信 ↑ 99.6 ··+0.95 +0.91+0.67·· leverage_crowdedleverage_crowded
600881.SS600881.SS +0.85 High +高置信 ↑ 99.6 ··+0.62 +1.00+0.99··
002829.SZ002829.SZ +0.85 High +高置信 ↑ 99.5 ··· +0.99+0.92-0.51·
688367.SS688367.SS +0.85 High +高置信 ↑ 99.5 ··+0.82 +0.97+0.74··
002928.SZ002928.SZ +0.84 High +高置信 ↑ 99.5 ·+0.94+0.70 +0.83+0.89··
688173.SS688173.SS +0.84 High +高置信 ↑ 99.4 ··+0.95 +0.90+0.61·· leverage_crowdedleverage_crowded
000759.SZ000759.SZ +0.84 High +高置信 ↑ 99.4 ··· +0.97+0.96-0.41·
600162.SS600162.SS +0.83 High +高置信 ↑ 99.3 ··+0.95 +0.79+0.95-0.49· leverage_crowdedleverage_crowded
301178.SZ301178.SZ +0.82 High +高置信 ↑ 99.2 ··+0.69 +0.96+0.83··
300886.SZ300886.SZ +0.82 High +高置信 ↑ 99.2 ··+0.95 +0.98+0.45·· leverage_crowdedleverage_crowded
002571.SZ002571.SZ +0.82 High +高置信 ↑ 99.1 ··· +0.88+0.73·-0.88
301365.SZ矩阵股份 +0.82 High +高置信 ↑ 99.1 +0.04·+0.95 +0.93+0.91·· leverage_crowdedleverage_crowded
688309.SS688309.SS +0.81 High +高置信 ↑ 99.1 ··+0.69 +0.95+0.81··
000683.SZ博源化工 +0.81 High +高置信 ↑ 99.0 +0.04·+0.88 +0.96+0.96··
300481.SZ300481.SZ +0.80 High +高置信 ↑ 98.9 ··+0.80 +0.87+0.73··
688305.SS科德数控 +0.80 High +高置信 ↑ 98.9 +0.04·+0.84 +0.99+0.92··
688513.SS苑东生物 +0.80 High +高置信 ↑ 98.9 +0.04·+0.95 +0.83+0.96·· leverage_crowdedleverage_crowded
300164.SZ300164.SZ +0.80 High +高置信 ↑ 98.9 ··· +0.74+0.95-0.67·
002677.SZ浙江美大 +0.80 High +高置信 ↑ 98.8 +0.04·· +1.00+0.96··
600227.SS600227.SS +0.80 High +高置信 ↑ 98.8 ··· +0.97+0.90-0.32·
301020.SZ301020.SZ +0.79 High +高置信 ↑ 98.8 ··+0.95 +0.88+0.48··
603010.SS603010.SS +0.79 High +高置信 ↑ 98.8 ··+0.95 +0.79+0.59··
603373.SS603373.SS +0.79 High +高置信 ↑ 98.7 ··+0.66 +0.87+0.86··

Flags = multi-leg crowding (contrarian fragility, latest snapshot, NOT scored): margin froth · pledge tail · limit-up froth · attention spike · rich valuation.标记=多腿拥挤(逆向脆弱性,最新快照,不评分):融资过热·质押风险·涨停过热·关注度飙升·估值偏高。

🏅 Broker gold-stock picks券商金股 202607 · Tushare premiumTushare 付费

Names most-picked by sell-side desks this month, as a pick-count conviction tally — a discrete monthly list, not the ~97%-buy ratings. Display-only, never scored.当月被卖方研究所推荐最多的个股,按推荐家数计——离散月度名单,区别于近97%『买入』评级。仅展示,不评分。

Ticker代码Name名称 # brokers券商家数Picked by推荐机构
300308.SZ中际旭创 9 中国银河 · 兴业证券 · 华龙证券 · 国联民生 · 太平洋 · 平安证券 …
600176.SS中国巨石 8 东吴证券 · 中国银河 · 中金公司 · 光大证券 · 国泰海通 · 国金证券 …
688041.SS海光信息 7 兴业证券 · 华鑫证券 · 华龙证券 · 平安证券 · 西部证券 · 财通证券 …
603259.SS药明康德 7 中泰证券 · 国信证券 · 国金证券 · 平安证券 · 开源证券 · 申万宏源 …
300750.SZ宁德时代 5 中原证券 · 中金公司 · 光大证券 · 招商证券 · 长城证券
002126.SZ银轮股份 4 中泰证券 · 兴业证券 · 华龙证券 · 国元证券
000776.SZ广发证券 4 中原证券 · 华源证券 · 国联民生 · 浙商证券
688072.SS拓荆科技 4 兴业证券 · 华安证券 · 国泰海通 · 招商证券
000338.SZ潍柴动力 4 中国银河 · 中泰证券 · 国信证券 · 长江证券
300502.SZ新易盛 3 华鑫证券 · 国联民生 · 招商证券
002179.SZ中航光电 3 兴业证券 · 申万宏源 · 长江证券
600999.SS招商证券 3 华泰证券 · 申万宏源 · 西部证券
600160.SS巨化股份 3 中银证券 · 国联民生 · 财信证券
300274.SZ阳光电源 3 交银国际 · 华泰证券 · 长江证券
002653.SZ海思科 3 国泰海通 · 太平洋 · 财信证券
603986.SS兆易创新 3 中原证券 · 中国银河 · 华鑫证券
688012.SS中微公司 3 中金公司 · 光大证券 · 华安证券
002028.SZ思源电气 3 中国银河 · 中金公司 · 财信证券
688256.SS寒武纪 3 中原证券 · 华鑫证券 · 西部证券
601233.SS桐昆股份 3 兴业证券 · 开源证券 · 财信证券
605016.SS百龙创园 3 光大证券 · 国泰海通 · 财通证券
601899.SS紫金矿业 3 中国银河 · 光大证券 · 西部证券
600188.SS兖矿能源 2 中泰证券 · 长江证券
605117.SS德业股份 2 平安证券 · 开源证券

📣 Earnings-guidance surprises业绩预告 Tushare premium · validated as the guidance familyTushare 付费 · 已作为 guidance 家族验证

Company 业绩预告 direction × guided net-profit change. The forward-IC harness finds a real ~3-month post-announcement drift (right sign), accruing toward proven — display + measured, never scored here.公司业绩预告方向×预告净利润变动。前瞻IC检验发现真实的约3个月公告后漂移(符号正确),正向已验证累积——展示与测量,此处不评分。

Positive正面Guided Δ%预告变动%Score评分
601026.SS Sharp rise预增 +48…+58 +1.00
301638.SZ Turn to profit扭亏 +146…+169 +1.00
600673.SS Sharp rise预增 +171…+200 +1.00
002056.SZ Sharp rise预增 +50…+65 +1.00
688582.SS Sharp rise预增 +56…+91 +1.00
600558.SS Sharp rise预增 +57…+73 +1.00
601083.SS Sharp rise预增 +63…+67 +1.00
600210.SS Sharp rise预增 +70…+90 +1.00
688089.SS Sharp rise预增 +54…+54 +1.00
688758.SS Sharp rise预增 +65…+80 +1.00
688768.SS Sharp rise预增 +871…+908 +1.00
600262.SS Sharp rise预增 +57…+71 +1.00
002616.SZ Sharp rise预增 +55…+65 +1.00
688550.SS Sharp rise预增 +52…+52 +1.00
002010.SZ Sharp rise预增 +256…+362 +1.00
000959.SZ Sharp rise预增 +95…+125 +1.00
Negative负面Guided Δ%预告变动%Score评分
688599.SS Stays in loss续亏 +88…+94 -1.00
688030.SS Stays in loss续亏 +66…+76 -1.00
600138.SS Sharp fall预减 -66…-66 -1.00
002191.SZ Sharp fall预减 -67…-51 -1.00
600603.SS Sharp fall预减 -96…-95 -1.00
002076.SZ Stays in loss续亏 -576…-426 -1.00
301248.SZ First loss首亏 -123…-112 -1.00
300916.SZ Sharp fall预减 -92…-87 -1.00
300615.SZ First loss首亏 -549…-426 -1.00
002387.SZ Stays in loss续亏 -86…-32 -1.00
600880.SS First loss首亏 -963…-698 -1.00
002820.SZ Stays in loss续亏 -99…-68 -1.00
603528.SS Stays in loss续亏 -648…-648 -1.00
603828.SS First loss首亏 -607…-468 -1.00
605069.SS First loss首亏 -390…-307 -1.00
002038.SZ First loss首亏 -322…-307 -1.00

⚠️ Leverage-crowding flags杠杆拥挤标记

Names whose 20-day financing balance jumped most — leverage building (cuts both ways).20日融资余额跳升最多的名单——杠杆在累积(双刃剑)。

688669.SS301222.SZ688479.SS688558.SS688173.SS600162.SS300886.SZ301365.SZ688513.SS688069.SS688296.SS002937.SZ600507.SS603580.SS603262.SS300907.SZ300966.SZ301390.SZ300998.SZ688671.SS

🔬 China Signal Lab中国信号实验室

Every China signal with an honest tier — scored (in the allocator) · confirmer · display · Phase-0 pending · killed.每个中国信号及其诚实分级——已评分(进入配置)· 确认器 · 展示 · Phase-0待验 · 已淘汰。

Scored已评分 3

Credit impulse (TSF)信用脉冲(社融) china_masterminds REGIME 0.45
12m-sum TSF YoY 6m-change; the canonical China leading indicator.社融12个月滚动同比的6个月变化;中国经典领先指标。
Realized-vol regime (CSI 300)已实现波动率区制(沪深300) china_masterminds REGIME 0.35
21d realized vol vs its 5y percentile (Moreira-Muir vol-managed de-risk).21日已实现波动率相对5年分位(Moreira-Muir波动管理降险)。
Margin euphoria融资亢奋 china_masterminds REGIME 0.20
Whole-market financing as % of float, 5y percentile — euphoria de-risk.全市场融资占流通市值比的5年分位——亢奋降险。

Confirmer确认器 2

Mean-reversion (3mo within-sector)均值回归(3月行业内) china_reversal screener
Deep within-sector dips; the one A-share factor that survived Phase-0.行业内深度回调;唯一通过Phase-0的A股因子。
Low-vol defensive sleeve低波防御组 china_lowvol screener
Lowest trailing-vol names; the low-vol anomaly holds on A-shares.最低波动名单;低波异象在A股成立。

Display展示 10

Stock-Connect southbound flow南向资金流 china.html internals
Mainland→HK net flow z-score; context, failed incremental Phase-0.内地→港净流入z值;背景,增量Phase-0未通过。
A/H premiumA/H溢价 china.html internals
Cross-market risk-appetite gauge; mean-reverting, not a timer.跨市场风险偏好计;均值回归,非择时。
Limit-up/down breadth涨跌停宽度 china.html internals
Best high-frequency A-share speculation thermometer (short retention).最佳高频A股投机温度计(保留期短)。
ETF share creationsETF份额变化 china.html internals
Broad/sector ETF creations — a national-team tell, not separable.宽基/行业ETF申购——国家队迹象,不可分离。
Sell-side consensus卖方一致预期 china_altdata convergence
Coverage + buy/hold/sell; near-universally 'buy' in China — weak signal.覆盖度+买入/中性/卖出;中国近乎全『买入』——弱信号。
Own-history valuation band自身估值分位 china_altdata convergence
PE/PB/PS vs own 5y band; A-share cross-sec value Sharpe is negative.PE/PB/PS相对自身5年带;A股横截面价值夏普为负。
Per-name financing trend个股融资趋势 china_altdata convergence
20d financing-balance change — leverage/accumulation backdrop.20日融资余额变化——杠杆/吸筹背景。
Broker monthly gold-stock picks (券商金股, Tushare)券商金股 tushare_broker → china_altdata desk panel
Count of distinct brokers picking a name this month; discrete conviction, not the ~97%-buy ratings.当月推荐该股的券商家数;离散信心,区别于近97%『买入』评级。
Corporate buybacks (回购)回购 china_discovery confirmer
In-progress buyback %-of-shares + RMB; insider conviction + valuation floor.在实施回购占比与金额;管理层信心+估值底。
Multi-leg fragility (k-of-5)多腿脆弱性 china_crowding flag
Margin+pledge+limit-up+attention+valuation conjunction; contrarian risk, not scored.两融+质押+涨停+关注度+估值的合取;逆向风险,不评分。

Pending待验 10

Per-ticker alt-data convergence个股另类数据共振 china_altdata.by_ticker
Rank-aggregate of analyst+value+margin; display join, Phase-0 candidate.分析师+估值+融资的排名聚合;展示性合并,Phase-0候选。
Southbound per-name accumulation南向个股吸筹 hk_southbound/holdings (accruing)
Per-stock mainland ownership momentum; history accruing for validation.个股内地持股动量;正在累计历史以待验证。
Main-force money flow (主力资金, Tushare)主力资金流向 china_altdata convergence (0.18)
超大单+大单 net inflow — the push2 replacement (IP-reliable); scored only after validation.超大单+大单净流入——push2替代(全球IP可达);验证通过后方可评分。
Holder cost-basis & win-rate (筹码, Tushare)筹码胜率 tushare_chips (cyq_perf) — collected, surface/score after Phase-0
% of float in profit + weighted holding cost; collected + accruing, not yet surfaced or scored.获利盘占比+加权持仓成本;已采集并累计,尚未展示或评分。
Earnings-guidance surprise (业绩预告, Tushare)业绩预告 tushare_forecast → altdata panel + china_validation `guidance`
业绩预告 direction × guided Δ%; surfaced as a desk panel + validated (forward IC finds a real ~3mo drift, accruing toward proven). Sell-side report_rc revision is separate, still throttle-limited.业绩预告方向×预告变动%;已作为台面板展示并验证(前瞻IC发现真实约3个月漂移,正向累积中)。卖方report_rc修正受频次限制,另行处理。
Crowd attention & inst-participation (千股千评)千股千评 china_altdata convergence (0.15)
Eastmoney 关注指数 + 机构参与度 + 主力成本; retail-vs-institutional crowding.关注指数+机构参与度+主力成本;散户与机构的拥挤度。
Dragon-Tiger institutional seats (龙虎榜)龙虎榜机构席位 china_altdata convergence (0.10) + discovery
Institutional-seat net buy on the abnormal-move board — leading smart money.龙虎榜机构席位净买入——领先主力资金。
Block-trade premium/discount (大宗交易)大宗交易折溢价 china_altdata convergence (0.05) + discovery
Off-market block premium=conviction handoff / discount=institutional unload.大宗溢价=承接 / 折价=机构出货。
Attention/LHB velocity关注度/龙虎榜动量 china_velocity (accruing)
Momentum of attention + Dragon-Tiger appearances; accruing forward track record.关注度与龙虎榜上榜的动量;正在累计前瞻战绩。
Off-desk leading accumulation未上桌的领先吸筹 china_discovery
Names with ≥2 leading legs (LHB-inst/block/buyback/attention) before price confirms.在价格确认前出现≥2个领先腿(机构席位/大宗/回购/关注度)的个股。

Killed已淘汰 2

Cross-sectional momentum横截面动量
A-share IC negative; only short-term reversal survives.A股IC为负;仅短期反转有效。
Cross-sectional value横截面价值
A-share value Sharpe -0.46 — display-only, never scored.A股价值夏普-0.46——仅展示,绝不评分。

Context only — not a signal, score or trade. Convergence reuses already-collected free feeds (china_analyst / china_valuation / china_margin_detail) and is a display join; it never feeds any allocation. The scored legs are those already validated inside china_masterminds.仅作背景,非信号、评分或交易。共振复用已采集的免费数据(卖方一致预期/自身估值/个股融资)且为展示性合并,绝不进入任何配置。已评分项为china_masterminds中已验证的部分。