Negative负向
Sector net-flow板块净流入 → Semiconductors半导体
78
Sector net-flow -5.4% (东财 board, daily)板块净流入 -5.4%（东财行业板块，当日）
Sector vs CSI 300 (63d)板块 vs 沪深300（63日）: +36.6 (z +1.55)
· track record历史: unproven未验证
🎯 Candidates候选: 300661.SZ (300661.SZ) · 海光信息 (688041.SS) · 盛美上海 (688082.SS)
If Sector net-flow is fading, Semiconductors's lead over CSI 300 should fade over ~3 months.若板块净流入转弱，半导体相对沪深300的领先应在约3个月内消退。
Negative负向
Sector net-flow板块净流入 → Brokers券商
23
Sector net-flow -7.2% (东财 board, daily)板块净流入 -7.2%（东财行业板块，当日）
Sector vs CSI 300 (63d)板块 vs 沪深300（63日）: +4.6 (z +0.46)
· track record历史: unproven未验证
🎯 Candidates候选: 国泰海通 (601211.SS) · 华泰证券 (601688.SS) · 招商证券 (600999.SS)
If Sector net-flow is fading, Brokers's lead over CSI 300 should fade over ~3 months.若板块净流入转弱，券商相对沪深300的领先应在约3个月内消退。
Negative负向
Sector net-flow板块净流入 → Banks银行
18
Sector net-flow -2.8% (东财 board, daily)板块净流入 -2.8%（东财行业板块，当日）
Sector vs CSI 300 (63d)板块 vs 沪深300（63日）: +0.6 (z +0.39)
· track record历史: unproven未验证
🎯 Candidates候选: 北京银行 (601169.SS) · 江苏银行 (600919.SS) · 建设银行 (601939.SS)
If Sector net-flow is fading, Banks's lead over CSI 300 should fade over ~3 months.若板块净流入转弱，银行相对沪深300的领先应在约3个月内消退。
Positive正向
PBoC easing央行宽松 → Real estate房地产
12
12m easing score +20 (LPR +0bp, RRR -1.00pp)12月宽松分 +20（LPR +0基点，准备金 -1.00pp）
Sector vs CSI 300 (63d)板块 vs 沪深300（63日）: -14.1 (z -0.50)
· track record历史: unproven未验证
If PBoC easing is leading, Real estate should outperform CSI 300 over ~3 months.若央行宽松领先，房地产未来约3个月应跑赢沪深300。
Negative负向
Credit impulse (TSF)信用脉冲(社融) → Banks银行
8
TSF impulse -5.7% (6m chg of 12m sum)社融脉冲 -5.7%（12月滚动和的6月变化）
Sector vs CSI 300 (63d)板块 vs 沪深300（63日）: +0.6 (z +0.39)
· track record历史: unproven未验证
🎯 Candidates候选: 北京银行 (601169.SS) · 江苏银行 (600919.SS) · 建设银行 (601939.SS)
If Credit impulse (TSF) is fading, Banks's lead over CSI 300 should fade over ~3 months.若信用脉冲(社融)转弱，银行相对沪深300的领先应在约3个月内消退。
Positive正向
Offshore ETF gap (KWEB/MCHI/CQQQ)离岸ETF差价(KWEB/MCHI/CQQQ)
100
Offshore (KWEB/MCHI/CQQQ) 20d equal-weight ret gap vs CSI300: +6.34% (z +2.09); FX-adj gap +10.4% (CNY -0.29%). FX note: gap embeds USDCNY moves — see FX-adj if available. Composition note: basket is tech/internet-tilted (KWEB=internet, CQQQ=tech-heavy) vs CSI 300's financials tilt — gap partly reflects sector rotation, not pure venue sentiment.离岸ETF(KWEB/MCHI/CQQQ) 20日等权收益差 vs 沪深300: +6.34%（z +2.09）；汇率调整后差价 +10.4%（人民币 -0.29%）。注：差值包含人民币汇率影响；篮子偏科技/互联网，与沪深300金融偏重有差异。
zz值: +2.09
· data as-of数据截至 2026-07-16
· track record历史: unproven未验证 (0)
If Offshore ETF gap (KWEB/MCHI/CQQQ) leads, the onshore/HK price leg (CSI 300 (onshore)) should close the gap over ~3 months. Offshore China ETF basket (KWEB/MCHI/CQQQ — US-listed offshore listings; ASHR/GXC excluded as they hold A-shares directly) total-return equal-weight gap vs CSI 300. A strongly positive gap (offshore outperforming) while onshore lags = offshore sentiment leading. FX caveat: gap embeds USDCNY. Composition note: basket is tech/internet-tilted (KWEB=internet, CQQQ=tech-heavy) vs CSI 300's financials tilt — gap partly reflects sector rotation, not pure venue sentiment. Hypothesis: sustained offshore leadership tends to attract onshore catch-up over ~3 months.若离岸ETF差价(KWEB/MCHI/CQQQ)领先，境内/港股价格（沪深300（境内））应在约3个月内收敛。