Stay-in / step-out: the broad US index vs T-bills on a 0–100 macro risk score.进出场：美国大盘指数与短期国债之间，按 0–100 宏观风险分数切换。
Harvest the high-yield carry; rotate to Treasuries before the default cycle claws it back.收割高收益债票息；在违约周期吞噬之前轮动至国债。
Own long Treasuries when they're cheap and trending; step to T-bills before the rate shock.当长期国债便宜且趋势向上时持有；在利率冲击前退守短债。
Ride the Nasdaq up-trend; step to T-bills when momentum rolls over and vol spikes.顺纳指上行趋势持有；动量反转、波动飙升时退守短债。
Time-series momentum on small caps — out of the asset through the long down-legs.小盘股时间序列动量 —— 在长期下行段离场。
The most cyclical equity sleeve — ride the boom, sidestep the bust with trend + vol.最具周期性的股票板块 —— 用趋势+波动顺周期持有、规避崩跌。
Antonacci absolute momentum: hold the S&P only while it out-earns T-bills.Antonacci 绝对动量：仅当标普跑赢短债时持有。
The textbook 50/200-day cross — a deliberately simple, widely-watched baseline.教科书式 50/200 日均线交叉 —— 刻意保留的简单、广为人知的基准。
Moreira-Muir: cut equity into high-volatility regimes, add it back into calm.Moreira-Muir：高波动时降仓，平静时加仓。
De-risk when the VIX curve inverts (near-term fear > 3-month) — the fast stress tell.当 VIX 曲线倒挂（近月恐慌 > 三月）时降险 —— 快速的压力信号。
Follow the Fed tide: lighten up when net liquidity (balance sheet − RRP) is draining.跟随美联储潮汐：当净流动性（资产负债表 − 逆回购）收缩时减仓。
Inversion warns; the re-steepening out of inversion has led every modern recession.倒挂预警；从倒挂走向陡峭领先了每一次现代衰退。
The labor market turns before earnings: de-risk on the Sahm trigger + rising jobless claims.就业先于盈利转向：Sahm 触发 + 初请上行时降险。
Credit leads equity — let widening high-yield spreads pull the stock weight down first.信用领先股票 —— 让走阔的高收益利差先把股票仓位拉低。
Step out only when the Chicago Fed NFCI is both tight AND tightening — the stress regime.仅当芝加哥联储 NFCI 既紧又在收紧时离场 —— 压力区间。
Barroso-Santa-Clara: own the momentum factor but scale by its own volatility — momentum crashes are a vol event.Barroso-Santa-Clara：持有动量因子，但按其自身波动缩放 —— 动量崩溃本质是波动事件。
Hold the low-vol anomaly almost always; only step aside in a genuine market volatility panic.几乎始终持有低波动异象；仅在真正的市场波动恐慌时退避。
Quality compounds through slowdowns — pair its trend with the macro recession gauge.质量在放缓中复利 —— 将其趋势与宏观衰退计配对。
Own the equal-weight S&P on trend; trim when breadth narrows (RSP losing to cap-weight).按趋势持有等权标普；当广度收窄（等权跑输市值权重）时减仓。
Gold's two enemies are rising real yields and a strong dollar — own it when both are calm.黄金的两大敌人是实际收益率上行与强美元 —— 二者平静时持有。
Classic managed-futures trend on Brent — commodities trend strongly and crash hard.布伦特原油的经典管理期货趋势 —— 商品趋势强、崩跌也猛。
Dr. Copper as a growth gauge — own it on trend, stand aside when industrial growth rolls over.‘铜博士’作为增长晴雨表 —— 顺趋势持有，工业增长回落时退避。
Trend-follow Bitcoin to keep the upside while cutting the repeated -80% drawdowns.趋势跟随比特币，保留上行同时削减反复出现的 -80% 回撤。
Time-series momentum on ETH — out through the long crypto-winter down-legs.以太坊时间序列动量 —— 在漫长加密寒冬的下行段离场。
Harvest the investment-grade spread; rotate to Treasuries when the Baa−Aaa quality spread widens.收割投资级利差；当 Baa−Aaa 质量利差走阔时轮动至国债。
Earn the EM spread; the dollar is the wrecking ball — de-risk to Treasuries when it surges.赚取新兴市场利差；美元是破坏球 —— 其飙升时退守国债。
Own intermediate Treasuries as the crisis hedge; step to bills when the 10y yield is trending up.持有中期国债作为危机对冲；当 10 年期收益率上行趋势时退守短债。