Microsoft · Tech
MSFT
$393.82
Microsoft Corporation is an American multinational technology company headquartered in Redmond, Washington.MicrosoftCorporation是一家美国跨国科技公司，总部位于华盛顿州雷德蒙德。
Quality compounder优质复利股
Mega cap超大盘
$2926B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
You missed the bottoming entry — the low already formed and price is now extended (momentum is fading — the daily moment已错过筑底入场——低点已经形成，目前价格已拉伸（动量正在衰竭——日线动量已开始掉头向下）。不要追高；等待回调至 10 日均线或下一个周期低点。若已持有则继续持有。
Price Chart价格图表
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$393.82
26.9% below 52-week high低于52周高点 26.9%
Market Cap市值
$2926B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
28.7x
40.2x sector median
Forward P/E预测市盈率
20.3x
EPS每股收益 $13.71
Beta贝塔
0.77
Moves about 0.8x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.8 倍
Dividend Yield股息收益率
0.92%
RSI (14)RSI（14）
52
Neutral zone中性区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-07-29 (10d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
81th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
1.2% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | MSFT | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +2.3% | -1.5% | Beat the index by 3.8 points跑赢指数 3.8 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | +3.9% | +0.6% | Beat the index by 3.3 points跑赢指数 3.3 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | -6.7% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 11.4 points落后指数 11.4 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | -14.0% | +7.8% | Lagged the index by 21.8 points落后指数 21.8 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | -16.4% | +9.1% | Lagged the index by 25.5 points落后指数 25.5 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | -22.4% | +19.4% | Lagged the index by 41.8 points落后指数 41.8 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | +12.1% | +69.4% | Lagged the index by 57.3 points落后指数 57.3 个百分点 |
| 5 Years近5年 | +46.2% | +83.9% | Lagged the index by 37.7 points落后指数 37.7 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
Active signals活跃信号
MA Sell (35)MA Sell (100)1-Day Return (cross-sectional rank → top/bottom gainers)Valuation cheapness percentile (0–1, higher = cheaper vs peers)Insider Power (0–100) — quality-weighted Form-4 open-market trades (role × size × recency); 50 = neutral
RSI (14)RSI（14）
52
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线
-1.9% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
-10.1% vs 200-day avg
Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度（ADX）
14
No clear trend无明显趋势
Volatility rank波动率分位
81th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$385.35
Don't chase above不追高于
$393.80
Stop止损
$352.80
Extended — wait for a pullback过度拉伸 — 等待回撤
Earnings财务业绩
10
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-07-29
Estimates being raised — 1 analysts预期上调 — 1 位分析师
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | MSFT | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 28.73x | 40.17 | 64% |
| P/E (forward)市盈率（预测） | 20.3x | — | — |
| P/B市净率 | 7.48x | 5.85 | 40% |
| P/S市销率 | 10.38x | 4.85 | 21% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 3.48% | 2.19 | 70% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 2.45% | 3.05 | 43% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 1.45% | 2.16 | 39% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 19.52x | 29.30 | 65% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 40.86x | 30.46 | 38% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 14.5%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 18.8%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
26.1%Return on Equity股本回报率
15.3%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | 0.09 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 1.35 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $18.4B |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $12.0B |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | -0.1% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 5/9
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (8.2)
Clean稳健
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理
Cheaper than 47% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 47% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
0.77×
0.21×3×
Moves about 0.8× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.8 倍
Financial Health财务健康
5/9
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
0.92%
Pays a dividend (0.92% yield)有分红（收益率 0.92%）
Why Is It Moving为何波动
News新闻
4 recent stories — mixed4 篇最新报道，多空参半
Sector / Theme行业/主题
AI Software & Platforms theme — #11 of 46 themes「AI 软件与平台」主题 — 46 个主题中第 11 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
MSFT weekly MACD crossed upMSFT 周线MACD上穿
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±2.85%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±6.38%
Call wall看涨密集区
$400
Put wall看跌密集区
$350
Gamma flip伽玛翻转
$368
IV rankIV历史分位
89%
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-0.2%
Flow资金流向
$665M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 231 fresh positions; P/C 0.31; ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $665M；0DTE占0%；231个新建仓；看跌看涨比 0.31；≈偏看涨（方向近似）
Skew: 偏斜：balanced
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$30.9M net (2 buyers, 4 sellers)-$30.9M 净值（2 买家，4 卖家）
Dispersed ownership分散持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Activity动作 | % of portfolio组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pershing Square (Ackman) | C | New position新建仓 | 15.3% | 2026-03-31 |
| Whale Rock Capital | A | New position新建仓 | 0.3% | 2026-03-31 |
| Giverny Capital | C | Adding加仓 | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
| Altimeter Capital | A | Holding持有 | 7.7% | 2026-03-31 |
| AltaRock Partners | C | trimtrim | 16.8% | 2026-03-31 |
| Polen Capital Management | B | trimtrim | 7.3% | 2026-03-31 |
| AKO Capital | B | trimtrim | 5.3% | 2026-03-31 |
| Tiger Global (Coleman) | B | trimtrim | 4.0% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal History信号历史
TOP WATCH
NEARING A HIGH
Jul 17, 2026
MSFT weekly MACD crossed upMSFT 周线MACD上穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned positive — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转正 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Jul 15, 2026
NEARING A LOW → UPTREND接近低点 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jul 13, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → BOTTOMING未确认转向 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 10, 2026
MSFT weekly MACD crossed downMSFT 周线MACD下穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned negative — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转负 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Jul 9, 2026
MSFT broke down vs the marketMSFT 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $384.36.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$384.36。
Jul 8, 2026
BOTTOMING → UNCONFIRMED TURN筑底中 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 7, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → BOTTOMING未确认转向 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 3403 signals条信号
Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.14
Value价值
-0.8
Profitability盈利能力
-0.1
Quality质量
+0.9
Investment资本投入
-1.0
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.7
Low volatility低波动
+0.7
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+0.1
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.2
Short interest空头兴趣
+1.3
Company Profile公司档案
Microsoft Corporation is an American multinational technology company headquartered in Redmond, Washington.MicrosoftCorporation是一家美国跨国科技公司，总部位于华盛顿州雷德蒙德。
Demand chain:需求链： Contracted bookings (RPO) accelerating (+36% YoY to ~$375B, 1.3× revenue) — signed demand locked in ahead of recognition已签约订单（RPO）加速（同比+36%，约 $375B，覆盖营收 1.3 倍）——已锁定、尚未确认的需求
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Margin compression despite revenue growth
- Capital intensity rising
Recent News最新动态
ROSEN, TRUSTED INVESTOR COUNSEL, Encourages Microsoft Investors to Secure Counsel Before Important Deadline in Securities Class Action – MSFT
GlobeNewswire Inc.
2026-07-20
Microsoft's Earnings Should Change The Narrative And Send Shares Back Over $500
SeekingAlpha
2026-07-19
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Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。