Central command · five desks fused中枢指挥 · 五台融合 ·

Intelligence Hub情报中心

Ranked by EDGE REMAINING — genuine signal × how much of the move is still ahead × a leading desk firing before the crowd — not by how many desks agree (agreement is a lagging, consensus condition). The hero is what is EMERGING: a leading desk positioning into a quiet tape with room to run. The crowd-favourite that has already run is demoted on purpose. Context only, never a trade trigger.按「剩余空间」排序 —— 真实信号 × 行情尚未走完的幅度 × 领先信号台抢在人群之前发动 —— 而非看多少台一致(一致性是滞后的共识状态)。主推「萌芽」机会:领先信号台在安静的盘面中悄悄建仓、仍有上行空间。已经跑完的人群宠儿被刻意下调。仅供参考,绝非交易触发。

Goldilocks Q1 Cycle周期 mid Liquidity流动性 expanding Fed美联储 Hawkish Emerging萌芽 1 Discovery发掘 150 Catalysts催化 2926 Actionable可操作 1 Universe覆盖 5395
News
News flow · the tape
early — 12d of evidence早期积累 — 12天数据
Alt-Data
Smart-money signal
early — 14d of evidence早期积累 — 14天数据
Divergence Radar
Activity vs price
early — 17d of evidence早期积累 — 17天数据
Buy-Board
Factor standouts
UNGRADED · n=0未评级 · n=0
Policy Watch
Realpolitik intent
early — 3d of evidence早期积累 — 3天数据
Special Sits
Dated catalysts
UNGRADED · n=0未评级 · n=0

Emerging edge — before the crowd萌芽优势 —— 抢在人群之前

a leading desk firing into a quiet tape, with room to run领先信号台在安静盘面发动,仍有上行空间
No emerging pre-consensus setups today — the tape is led by names that have already moved.今日无萌芽期的领先机会 —— 盘面由已经发动的标的主导。

Discovery — what the desks miss发掘 —— 各台遗漏之处

a leading signal the five desks dropped or never read五台丢弃或从未读取的领先信号
MSFT$401.10 radar quiet 70
affiliation + github momentum + gov contract; options call-leaning; uncrowded
affiliation · github_momentum · gov_contract · patent_cluster
distribution派发 · surfaced into the command list已上榜可见
AXON$541.75 federal velocity 62
federal obligated $ accelerating 141% vs prior run-rate
building酝酿 · surfaced into the command list已上榜可见
GOOGL$354.46 radar quiet 52
affiliation + hf model momentum; options call-leaning; uncrowded
affiliation · hf_model_momentum
building酝酿 · surfaced into the command list已上榜可见
BWXT$173.74 federal velocity 50
one large federal award (lumpy — not a sustained ramp)
falteringfaltering · surfaced into the command list已上榜可见
SSP$3.13 insider cluster 45
19 insiders bought open-market (officer-led) · 108d-lagged filing
building酝酿 · surfaced into the command list已上榜可见
SGP$20.76 insider cluster off-desk非台内 45
15 insiders bought open-market · 108d-lagged filing
discovery发掘 · not yet on any desk尚未进入任何信号台
HTGC$16.37 insider cluster off-desk非台内 45
11 insiders bought open-market (officer-led) · 108d-lagged filing
discovery发掘 · not yet on any desk尚未进入任何信号台
BLCO$16.81 insider cluster off-desk非台内 45
9 insiders bought open-market (officer-led) · 108d-lagged filing
discovery发掘 · not yet on any desk尚未进入任何信号台
KRRO$12.28 insider cluster off-desk非台内 45
9 insiders bought open-market · 108d-lagged filing
discovery发掘 · not yet on any desk尚未进入任何信号台
MRK$127.63 radar quiet 41
clinical phase3 start + fda label expansion; options call-leaning; uncrowded
clinical_phase3_start · fda_label_expansion
consensus共识 · surfaced into the command list已上榜可见
RKLB$67.35 federal velocity 40
new / sparse federal obligated-$ flow
distribution派发 · surfaced into the command list已上榜可见
APMC activist ownership off-desk非台内 39
13G→13D flip — escalation to active (Wealthspring Capital LLC) filed 8d ago · measuring — not yet event-study-validated · ≤5-biz-day filing lag
discovery发掘 · not yet on any desk尚未进入任何信号台
BRUN$23.81 activist ownership off-desk非台内 39
13G→13D flip — escalation to active filed 32d ago · measuring — not yet event-study-validated · ≤5-biz-day filing lag
discovery发掘 · not yet on any desk尚未进入任何信号台
MTA activist ownership off-desk非台内 38
activist 13D (Tether Global Investments Fund, S.I.C.A.F., S.A.) filed 2d ago · measuring — not yet event-study-validated · ≤5-biz-day filing lag
discovery发掘 · not yet on any desk尚未进入任何信号台

Exhausted — already run, fade-risk透支 —— 已跑完,派发风险 12

Live catalysts — dated events在途催化 —— 有确定日期的事件 12

Command — ranked by opportunity指挥榜 —— 按机会值排序

edge remaining × signal × leading gap剩余空间 × 信号 × 领先差

Signal scorecard — is the edge real?信号记分卡 —— 优势是否真实?

the hub graded against what actually happened — context only, not a trade signal以实际走势检验本台 —— 仅供参考,非交易信号
5d horizon周期 measuring测量中
rank skill排名预测力 +0.009
graded calls已评分判断 9,786
emerging: beat SPY?萌芽:跑赢SPY? -0.7% no
exhausted: lagged SPY?透支:跑输SPY? -0.5% yes
10d horizon周期 measuring测量中
rank skill排名预测力 -0.039
graded calls已评分判断 8,057
emerging: beat SPY?萌芽:跑赢SPY? -2.1% no
exhausted: lagged SPY?透支:跑输SPY? -2.0% yes
21d horizon周期 measuring测量中
rank skill排名预测力 -0.203~
graded calls已评分判断 2,505
emerging: beat SPY?萌芽:跑赢SPY? -8.1% no
exhausted: lagged SPY?透支:跑输SPY? -2.9% yes

Sector heat板块热度

where the desks cluster各台聚集之处
XLU Utilities
mean 16.2names 11
XLE Energy policy政策
mean 15.8names 4
XLV Health Care
mean 13.3names 28
XLK Technology
mean 12.4names 36
XLC Communication
mean 12.1names 11
XLI Industrials
mean 10.6names 19
XLP Staples
mean 10.1names 8
XLY Discretionary
mean 6.5names 14
XLF Financials policy政策
mean 6.1names 26
XLB Materials
mean 5.1names 4
XLRE Real Estate
mean 3.6names 6

📊 Desk scorecard — is this desk beating the market?研究台记分卡 —— 本台是否跑赢大盘? every name this desk surfaces is graded against realized SPY-relative forward returns · context-only 本台每个入选标的均以实际相对标普前瞻收益评分 · 仅作参考

ALARM警报a matured horizon shows a significant NEGATIVE IC: this desk's ranking is anti-predictive there. See findings below. 某到期周期出现显著为负的信息系数:本台排序在该周期反向预测。详见下方结论。 110,637 live snapshots · 3,430 departures tracked 110,637 条在册快照 · 已追踪 3,430 次离场
Horizon周期 n样本 IC · levelIC · 水平 IC · velocityIC · 速度 on-desk在台 departed离台 coverage覆盖 status状态
5d 6512 -0.026 +0.089 -0.7% -2.0% 7.3% measuring测量中
10d 4028 -0.159 +0.023~ -1.9% -4.4% 5.1% ⚠ ALARM⚠ 警报
20d 0 0.0% measuring测量中
30d 0 measuring测量中
60d 0 measuring测量中
90d 0 measuring测量中

~ = provisional pooled IC (single cross-section); the daily Newey-West HAC IC that the "proven" gate trusts needs ≥6 grading dates. Velocity IC = the change in the desk's own score, the owner's second axis. ~ = 暂定合并信息系数(单一横截面);"已验证"门槛所依赖的日度 Newey-West HAC 信息系数需≥6个评分日。速度信息系数 = 本台评分自身的变化,即所有者的第二维度。

Engine-version A/B引擎版本 A/B — pre/post overhaul, where the ledger carries the stamp—— 改版前后,以账本已打戳的行为准

5d hub-v3-trajectory: IC +0.026 n=1238 · -1.8%

Auto-findings自动结论 — derived from the stats each run, to improve this desk's engine—— 每次运行从统计中导出,用于改进本台引擎

  • 5d: score VELOCITY IC (+0.089) exceeds LEVEL IC (-0.026) — the change in the desk's score ranks winners better than its level.5d: score VELOCITY IC (+0.089) exceeds LEVEL IC (-0.026) — the change in the desk's score ranks winners better than its level.
  • 5d: departed names (-2.0% avg) underperform on-desk names (-0.7%) — DROPS ARE CORRECT; the desk sheds names before they lag.5d: departed names (-2.0% avg) underperform on-desk names (-0.7%) — DROPS ARE CORRECT; the desk sheds names before they lag.
  • 5d: 'exhausted' (-1.0%) outperforms 'emerging' (-1.7%) — possible residual inversion in the lifecycle staging.5d: 'exhausted' (-1.0%) outperforms 'emerging' (-1.7%) — possible residual inversion in the lifecycle staging.
  • 10d level IC is significantly NEGATIVE (-0.159, n=4028) — the desk's ranking is anti-predictive here; consider inverting or gating the score.10d level IC is significantly NEGATIVE (-0.159, n=4028) — the desk's ranking is anti-predictive here; consider inverting or gating the score.
  • 10d: departed names (-4.4% avg) underperform on-desk names (-1.9%) — DROPS ARE CORRECT; the desk sheds names before they lag.10d: departed names (-4.4% avg) underperform on-desk names (-1.9%) — DROPS ARE CORRECT; the desk sheds names before they lag.
  • 10d: 'exhausted' (-2.8%) outperforms 'emerging' (-5.5%) — possible residual inversion in the lifecycle staging.10d: 'exhausted' (-2.8%) outperforms 'emerging' (-5.5%) — possible residual inversion in the lifecycle staging.

Notes & lessons笔记与经验 — what we've learned, so the desk's engine keeps improving as data accrues—— 已学到的经验,使本台引擎随数据累积持续改进

  • 2026-07-04 2026-07-04 inversion finding: the OLD hub engine was anti-predictive — pooled opportunity IC ~-0.09 @5d, and 'exhausted' names (+1.84% avg fwd) BEAT 'emerging' (-0.77%). The hub-v3-trajectory overhaul is the fix under test; this grader's engine_version A/B is the experiment that proves whether it worked.2026-07-04 inversion finding: the OLD hub engine was anti-predictive — pooled opportunity IC ~-0.09 @5d, and 'exhausted' names (+1.84% avg fwd) BEAT 'emerging' (-0.77%). The hub-v3-trajectory overhaul is the fix under test; this grader's engine_version A/B is the experiment that proves whether it worked.
  • 2026-07-04 PRICE LESSON: grade off data/yahoo/.parquet adjusted closes ONLY. The S&P-1500 breadth close cache (data/breadth/_closes_cache.parquet) is SPLIT-CORRUPTED — using it silently poisons every RS / forward-return number. A name missing from yahoo is a coverage skip here, never a wrong return.PRICE LESSON: grade off data/yahoo/.parquet adjusted closes ONLY. The S&P-1500 breadth close cache (data/breadth/_closes_cache.parquet) is SPLIT-CORRUPTED — using it silently poisons every RS / forward-return number. A name missing from yahoo is a coverage skip here, never a wrong return.
  • 2026-07-04 NOTE on the engine_version A/B: the historical hub ledger carries NO engine_version stamp (all ~63k rows pre-date the stamp), so the pre/post-overhaul split only begins accruing from 2026-07-04 forward. Until enough hub-v3-trajectory rows mature, the A/B reads one-sided; that is expected, not a bug.NOTE on the engine_version A/B: the historical hub ledger carries NO engine_version stamp (all ~63k rows pre-date the stamp), so the pre/post-overhaul split only begins accruing from 2026-07-04 forward. Until enough hub-v3-trajectory rows mature, the A/B reads one-sided; that is expected, not a bug.

A falsifiable scorecard of this desk's own surfaced names — its ranking score (level AND velocity) graded against realized SPY-relative forward returns at 5/10/20/30/60/90 trading days, split on-desk vs after-leaving. A signal is 'proven' only past n>=40 with a significant Newey-West t of the right sign; a significant negative IC is an 'alarm'. Context-only — nothing here sizes a position.