Ranked by EDGE REMAINING — genuine signal × how much of the move is still ahead × a leading desk firing before the crowd — not by how many desks agree (agreement is a lagging, consensus condition). The hero is what is EMERGING: a leading desk positioning into a quiet tape with room to run. The crowd-favourite that has already run is demoted on purpose. Context only, never a trade trigger.按「剩余空间」排序 —— 真实信号 × 行情尚未走完的幅度 × 领先信号台抢在人群之前发动 —— 而非看多少台一致(一致性是滞后的共识状态)。主推「萌芽」机会:领先信号台在安静的盘面中悄悄建仓、仍有上行空间。已经跑完的人群宠儿被刻意下调。仅供参考,绝非交易触发。
Desks lean bearish and price is rolling over — distribution; de-risk / avoid, not a long.
edge left剩余空间34%
-54% off high距高点-37pp RS 60d相对强度rolling over见顶回落
faltering
ASPI$3.94ASPI
24opp机会
conv信念 40 · 1d台
distribution派发no entry无入场
Desks lean bearish and price is rolling over — distribution; de-risk / avoid, not a long.
edge left剩余空间53%
-72% off high距高点-34pp RS 60d相对强度rolling over见顶回落
falteringcatalyst+2 peers同伴: DNN UUUU
URG$1.25URG
23opp机会
conv信念 34 · 1d台
distribution派发no entry无入场
Desks lean bearish and price is rolling over — distribution; de-risk / avoid, not a long.
edge left剩余空间51%
-40% off high距高点-33pp RS 60d相对强度rolling over见顶回落
faltering+2 peers同伴: DNN UUUU
LEU$147.07LEU
23opp机会
conv信念 39 · 1d台
distribution派发no entry无入场
Desks lean bearish and price is rolling over — distribution; de-risk / avoid, not a long.
edge left剩余空间51%
-66% off high距高点-32pp RS 60d相对强度rolling over见顶回落
faltering+2 peers同伴: DNN UUUU
LUNR$13.44LUNR
22opp机会
conv信念 38 · 1d台
distribution派发no entry无入场
Desks lean bearish and price is rolling over — distribution; de-risk / avoid, not a long.
edge left剩余空间51%
-71% off high距高点-57pp RS 60d相对强度rolling over见顶回落
faltering+2 peers同伴: IRDM VSAT
UROY$2.61UROY
22opp机会
conv信念 44 · 1d台
distribution派发no entry无入场
Desks lean bearish and price is rolling over — distribution; de-risk / avoid, not a long.
edge left剩余空间38%
-52% off high距高点-34pp RS 60d相对强度rolling over见顶回落
falteringcatalyst
FLY$19.03FLY
22opp机会
conv信念 38 · 1d台
distribution派发no entry无入场
Desks lean bearish and price is rolling over — distribution; de-risk / avoid, not a long.
edge left剩余空间49%
-68% off high距高点-61pp RS 60d相对强度rolling over见顶回落
faltering+2 peers同伴: IRDM VSAT
MSFT$401.10MSFT
21opp机会
conv信念 16 · 1d台
distribution派发no entry无入场
Desks lean bearish and price is rolling over — distribution; de-risk / avoid, not a long.
edge left剩余空间67%
-26% off high距高点-10pp RS 60d相对强度
catalystdiscovery
CRML$6.71CRML
20opp机会
conv信念 36 · 1d台
distribution派发no entry无入场
Desks lean bearish and price is rolling over — distribution; de-risk / avoid, not a long.
edge left剩余空间34%
-78% off high距高点-50pp RS 60d相对强度rolling over见顶回落
faltering
LAC$2.94LAC
20opp机会
conv信念 36 · 1d台
distribution派发no entry无入场
Desks lean bearish and price is rolling over — distribution; de-risk / avoid, not a long.
edge left剩余空间34%
-71% off high距高点-47pp RS 60d相对强度rolling over见顶回落
faltering
PPTA$17.17PPTA
20opp机会
conv信念 36 · 1d台
distribution派发no entry无入场
Desks lean bearish and price is rolling over — distribution; de-risk / avoid, not a long.
edge left剩余空间34%
-54% off high距高点-55pp RS 60d相对强度rolling over见顶回落
faltering
HOOD$106.02HOOD
19opp机会
conv信念 30 · 2d台
distribution派发no entry无入场
Desks lean bearish and price is rolling over — distribution; de-risk / avoid, not a long.
edge left剩余空间58%
-30% off high距高点+10pp RS 60d相对强度basing筑底
fadingcatalyst
KRMN$47.45KRMN
18opp机会
conv信念 38 · 1d台
distribution派发no entry无入场
Desks lean bearish and price is rolling over — distribution; de-risk / avoid, not a long.
edge left剩余空间34%
-59% off high距高点-49pp RS 60d相对强度rolling over见顶回落
faltering
Signal scorecard — is the edge real?信号记分卡 —— 优势是否真实?
the hub graded against what actually happened — context only, not a trade signal以实际走势检验本台 —— 仅供参考,非交易信号
5d天horizon周期measuring测量中
rank skill排名预测力+0.009
graded calls已评分判断9,786
emerging: beat SPY?萌芽:跑赢SPY?-0.7%no否
exhausted: lagged SPY?透支:跑输SPY?-0.5%yes是
10d天horizon周期measuring测量中
rank skill排名预测力-0.039
graded calls已评分判断8,057
emerging: beat SPY?萌芽:跑赢SPY?-2.1%no否
exhausted: lagged SPY?透支:跑输SPY?-2.0%yes是
21d天horizon周期measuring测量中
rank skill排名预测力-0.203~
graded calls已评分判断2,505
emerging: beat SPY?萌芽:跑赢SPY?-8.1%no否
exhausted: lagged SPY?透支:跑输SPY?-2.9%yes是
Sector heat板块热度
where the desks cluster各台聚集之处
XLU Utilities
mean均16.2names名11
XLE Energy
policy政策 ↑
mean均15.8names名4
XLV Health Care
mean均13.3names名28
XLK Technology
mean均12.4names名36
XLC Communication
mean均12.1names名11
XLI Industrials
mean均10.6names名19
XLP Staples
mean均10.1names名8
XLY Discretionary
mean均6.5names名14
XLF Financials
policy政策 ↑
mean均6.1names名26
XLB Materials
mean均5.1names名4
XLRE Real Estate
mean均3.6names名6
📊
Desk scorecard — is this desk beating the market?研究台记分卡 —— 本台是否跑赢大盘?every name this desk surfaces is graded against realized SPY-relative forward returns · context-only本台每个入选标的均以实际相对标普前瞻收益评分 · 仅作参考
ALARM警报 —
a matured horizon shows a significant NEGATIVE IC: this desk's ranking is anti-predictive there. See findings below.某到期周期出现显著为负的信息系数:本台排序在该周期反向预测。详见下方结论。110,637 live snapshots · 3,430 departures tracked110,637 条在册快照 · 已追踪 3,430 次离场
Horizon周期
n样本
IC · levelIC · 水平
IC · velocityIC · 速度
on-desk在台
departed离台
coverage覆盖
status状态
5d日
6512
-0.026
+0.089
-0.7%
-2.0%
7.3%
measuring测量中
10d日
4028
-0.159
+0.023~
-1.9%
-4.4%
5.1%
⚠ ALARM⚠ 警报
20d日
0
—
—
—
—
0.0%
measuring测量中
30d日
0
—
—
—
—
—
measuring测量中
60d日
0
—
—
—
—
—
measuring测量中
90d日
0
—
—
—
—
—
measuring测量中
~ = provisional pooled IC (single cross-section); the daily Newey-West HAC IC that the "proven" gate trusts needs ≥6 grading dates. Velocity IC = the change in the desk's own score, the owner's second axis.~ = 暂定合并信息系数(单一横截面);"已验证"门槛所依赖的日度 Newey-West HAC 信息系数需≥6个评分日。速度信息系数 = 本台评分自身的变化,即所有者的第二维度。
Engine-version A/B引擎版本 A/B— pre/post overhaul, where the ledger carries the stamp—— 改版前后,以账本已打戳的行为准
5d日hub-v3-trajectory: IC +0.026n=1238 · -1.8%
Auto-findings自动结论— derived from the stats each run, to improve this desk's engine—— 每次运行从统计中导出,用于改进本台引擎
●5d: score VELOCITY IC (+0.089) exceeds LEVEL IC (-0.026) — the change in the desk's score ranks winners better than its level.5d: score VELOCITY IC (+0.089) exceeds LEVEL IC (-0.026) — the change in the desk's score ranks winners better than its level.
●5d: departed names (-2.0% avg) underperform on-desk names (-0.7%) — DROPS ARE CORRECT; the desk sheds names before they lag.5d: departed names (-2.0% avg) underperform on-desk names (-0.7%) — DROPS ARE CORRECT; the desk sheds names before they lag.
▲5d: 'exhausted' (-1.0%) outperforms 'emerging' (-1.7%) — possible residual inversion in the lifecycle staging.5d: 'exhausted' (-1.0%) outperforms 'emerging' (-1.7%) — possible residual inversion in the lifecycle staging.
⚠10d level IC is significantly NEGATIVE (-0.159, n=4028) — the desk's ranking is anti-predictive here; consider inverting or gating the score.10d level IC is significantly NEGATIVE (-0.159, n=4028) — the desk's ranking is anti-predictive here; consider inverting or gating the score.
●10d: departed names (-4.4% avg) underperform on-desk names (-1.9%) — DROPS ARE CORRECT; the desk sheds names before they lag.10d: departed names (-4.4% avg) underperform on-desk names (-1.9%) — DROPS ARE CORRECT; the desk sheds names before they lag.
▲10d: 'exhausted' (-2.8%) outperforms 'emerging' (-5.5%) — possible residual inversion in the lifecycle staging.10d: 'exhausted' (-2.8%) outperforms 'emerging' (-5.5%) — possible residual inversion in the lifecycle staging.
Notes & lessons笔记与经验— what we've learned, so the desk's engine keeps improving as data accrues—— 已学到的经验,使本台引擎随数据累积持续改进
2026-07-042026-07-04 inversion finding: the OLD hub engine was anti-predictive — pooled opportunity IC ~-0.09 @5d, and 'exhausted' names (+1.84% avg fwd) BEAT 'emerging' (-0.77%). The hub-v3-trajectory overhaul is the fix under test; this grader's engine_version A/B is the experiment that proves whether it worked.2026-07-04 inversion finding: the OLD hub engine was anti-predictive — pooled opportunity IC ~-0.09 @5d, and 'exhausted' names (+1.84% avg fwd) BEAT 'emerging' (-0.77%). The hub-v3-trajectory overhaul is the fix under test; this grader's engine_version A/B is the experiment that proves whether it worked.
2026-07-04PRICE LESSON: grade off data/yahoo/.parquet adjusted closes ONLY. The S&P-1500 breadth close cache (data/breadth/_closes_cache.parquet) is SPLIT-CORRUPTED — using it silently poisons every RS / forward-return number. A name missing from yahoo is a coverage skip here, never a wrong return.PRICE LESSON: grade off data/yahoo/.parquet adjusted closes ONLY. The S&P-1500 breadth close cache (data/breadth/_closes_cache.parquet) is SPLIT-CORRUPTED — using it silently poisons every RS / forward-return number. A name missing from yahoo is a coverage skip here, never a wrong return.
2026-07-04NOTE on the engine_version A/B: the historical hub ledger carries NO engine_version stamp (all ~63k rows pre-date the stamp), so the pre/post-overhaul split only begins accruing from 2026-07-04 forward. Until enough hub-v3-trajectory rows mature, the A/B reads one-sided; that is expected, not a bug.NOTE on the engine_version A/B: the historical hub ledger carries NO engine_version stamp (all ~63k rows pre-date the stamp), so the pre/post-overhaul split only begins accruing from 2026-07-04 forward. Until enough hub-v3-trajectory rows mature, the A/B reads one-sided; that is expected, not a bug.
A falsifiable scorecard of this desk's own surfaced names — its ranking score (level AND velocity) graded against realized SPY-relative forward returns at 5/10/20/30/60/90 trading days, split on-desk vs after-leaving. A signal is 'proven' only past n>=40 with a significant Newey-West t of the right sign; a significant negative IC is an 'alarm'. Context-only — nothing here sizes a position.