Allocation Strategy · in depth仓位策略 · 深度
How much Bitcoin — and Ethereum — to hold right now当前应配置多少比特币 — 以及以太坊
As of截至 Jul 17, 2026 · BTC $63,474
⏳ Proprietary cycle timer · holding cash专有周期计时器 · 持有现金
Our cycle timing flags this as a stay-out window for BTC, so the strategy is overridden to 0% (100% cash) and the tactical recommendation below is paused. It re-engages around我们的周期择时判定当前为 BTC 的回避窗口，因此策略被覆盖为 0%（100% 现金），下方战术建议暂停。将在以下时间前后重新参与 2026-10-01.
Recommended split建议配置
· Bear看空 regime格局 × MixedMixed
BitcoinEthereum
Altcoins山寨币Cash / stables现金 / 稳定币
Short-term momentum has turned up, but the weekly/monthly trend and the cycle haven't confirmed. Most such turns fail, a minority begin a new cycle — you can't tell which until the higher timeframes confirm. High risk: small size, defined stop, not an investment-grade buy.短期动量已转向上行，但周线/月线趋势与周期尚未确认。多数此类转向最终失败，少数则开启新周期——在更高周期确认前无法判定。高风险：小仓位、设定止损，并非适合投资的买入。
Total crypto exposure here = the tactical allocation此处的加密总仓位 = 战术仓位 0% from the headline Optimal Strategy — this grid just splits that budget across BTC / ETH / alts. When the risk gate is shut（来自首页”最优策略”）— 本矩阵只是把该预算在 BTC / ETH / 山寨间分配。风险闸门关闭时 (0%), this page is，本页也为 100% cash too现金, matching the main dashboard.，与主看板一致。
Strategic grid cell for this regime × alt-season该格局 × 山寨季的战略矩阵单元: BTC 25 · ETH 10 · Alts山寨 0 · Cash现金 65 — the split once the gate opens. In a bear / counter-trend regime, cash dominates no matter the alt-season (“nimble trades only, not an investment buy”). A regime overlay, not a precise entry timer.即闸门开启后的分配比例。在熊市／逆势格局下，无论山寨季如何都以现金为主（”仅适合灵活短线，并非投资买入”）。这是格局叠加，而非精确入场计时。
Where are we in the alt cycle?处于山寨周期何处？
MixedMixed
Alt-season score山寨季评分 36/100
BTC seasonBTC 季 (<25)Alt season山寨季 (>75)
ETH/BTC ratioETH/BTC 比率0.0291 (23%ile)
ETH/BTC 8-week trendETH/BTC 8 周趋势+5.5% · below 50w MA低于 50 周均线
BTC dominanceBTC 占比56.2% · ETH 10.0%
ETH/BTC is the longest-history, testable alt proxy (2017→): 0.07 = alt-season confirmed, below 0.05 = deep BTC-season. ETH leads the alts, so it gets weight before pure alts do. Dominance and score are current context (CoinGecko snapshot).ETH/BTC 是历史最久、可检验的山寨代理（2017 起）：0.07 = 确认山寨季，低于 0.05 = 深度 BTC 季。ETH 领先山寨，故先于纯山寨获得配置。占比与评分为当前背景（CoinGecko 快照）。
ETH/BTC ratio · the alt-cycle clockETH/BTC 比率 · 山寨周期时钟
A multi-year base below 0.05 turning up off the 50-week average is the early alt-season bell; a break above 0.07 confirms it. We’re well below 0.05 and still falling — no alt-season in sight.在 0.05 下方多年筑底并自 50 周均线上翻，是山寨季的早期信号；突破 0.07 则确认。当前远低于 0.05 且仍在下行 — 暂无山寨季迹象。
Allocation grid · cycle regime × alt-season配置矩阵 · 周期格局 × 山寨季
| BTC seasonBTC 季 | Mixed混合 | Alt season山寨季 |
|---|
| Bull / risk-on牛市 / 风险偏好 |
70·20·0·10 | 50·30·15·5 | 30·30·35·5 |
| Neutral中性 |
55·15·0·30 | 45·20·5·30 | 35·25·20·20 |
| Bear / counter-trend熊市 / 逆势 |
25·5·0·70 | 25·10·0·65 | 30·15·5·50 |
Cells are BTC·ETH·Alts·Cash %. Highlighted = current. Rules: alts only in alt-season and not a bear; ETH leads alts; cash dominates a bear regardless of season. The grid is judgment (labelled context), not a backtested optimum.单元格为 BTC·ETH·山寨·现金 %。高亮 = 当前。规则：仅在山寨季且非熊市时配置山寨；ETH 领先山寨；熊市无论季节均以现金为主。该矩阵为判断（背景），而非回测最优。
Bitcoin allocation variants · backtested vs HODL比特币仓位变体 · 相对 HODL 回测
All four BTC variants come from a (momentum × risk-index) grid plus a tested valuation overlay: MVRV-Z below 0 sets a floor (buy the bottom), Mayer above 2.4 / Reserve-Risk above 0.02 caps it (trim the top). Every variant beat buy-and-hold on both Sharpe and drawdown since 2015 (HODL’s max drawdown was −84%). Conservative gives up return for the smallest drawdown; Optimal is the best overall risk/reward. The macro overlay (net liquidity, global M2) was tested and deliberately left out of the sizing — it’s strategic context, not a timer.四个比特币变体均来自（动量 × 风险指数）矩阵，并叠加经检验的估值层：MVRV-Z 低于 0 设下限（买入底部），Mayer 高于 2.4 / 储备风险高于 0.02 设上限（顶部减仓）。2015 年以来每个变体在夏普与回撤上均优于买入持有（HODL 最大回撤 −84%）。保守型以收益换取最小回撤；最优型为整体最佳风险收益。宏观叠加（净流动性、全球 M2）经检验后被刻意排除在仓位之外 — 它是战略背景，而非计时器。