🇭🇰 HK Stock Desk港股研判台

Stagflation滞胀 Neutral中性 ?Ranks HK names by three cleaner edges: southbound flow, A/H value, and strength after removing global-risk beta.按三条较干净优势排序：南向资金、A/H 价值、剥离全球风险贝塔后的强度。
Neutral tape — lean on flow & value for the edge中性行情 — 依靠资金与价值寻找优势 No regime tilt — these are exposures, not a direction. The idiosyncratic edge is southbound accumulation and cheap-A/H value; amplifiers will simply move more in EITHER direction when the regime turns.无周期倾向 —— 这是敞口而非方向。特异优势在于南向加仓与A/H 折价价值；当周期转向时放大器只是在任一方向波动更大。
Macro risk overlay宏观风险叠加: 35% stress压力 · leadership领先股 normal
💧 HK liquidity regime香港流动性状态: NEUTRAL中性 (accruing conditioner累积中调节器) Neutral HK interbank liquidity — between the easy and tight drawdown regimes. Sizing context only, not a signal.香港银行体系流动性中性 —— 介于宽松与紧张回撤状态之间。仅为定仓背景，非信号。
Universe exposure split全体敞口分布 (156 names只)
54
49
53
⚡ 54 amplifiers放大器 49 neutral中性 cushions缓冲 53 🛡
31
constructive entry建设性入场
8
on watch观察名单
39.2%
above 50-day50日上方
+74524
southbound 20d ¥B南向20日 亿
A flow & structure screen — ranked by flow, A/H value and relative strength. A research shortlist, not a buy list.一个资金与结构筛选 — 按资金流、A/H 价值与相对强度排序。研究备选清单，非买入清单。 ← HK macro dashboard香港宏观看板 🧪 Pick Lab选股实验室

⚡ What to act on now — sectors当前可操作 — 板块 ?The HK sector groups bucketed by the cycle ladder's entry-timing call — the same engine as the US action board. A structure / risk map, not an allocation rule: ON THE RUN = in favour but extended (do not chase; add on a pullback); the reduce side (take profits / avoid) is the risk read. HK has no validated single-stock edge — this is sector positioning.香港板块按周期阶梯的入场时机分桶 — 与美国操作板同一引擎。这是结构／风险图，而非配置规则：顺势运行 = 看好但已延伸（勿追高；回调加仓）；减仓侧（止盈／回避）是风险判读。香港无经验证的个股优势 — 这是板块定位。

⚡
Broad market joining in大盘跟进中
Mega-caps are participating and broad breadth is now confirming. 大型龙头正在参与，大盘广度正在同步确认。
Get ready准备就绪
7 of 10 mega-caps above rising 10-day MA · 39% broad breadth 10只龙头中7只高于上升10日均线 · 大盘广度39%
What fired触发依据 7 of 10 mega-caps above a rising 10-day average (cohesion up from 10% ten sessions ago). 10只龙头中7只高于上升10日均线（10日前占比10%）。
Broad market大盘情况39% of stocks above their 50-day average — confirming. 39%个股高于其50日均线 — 正在确认。
History历史参考15 similar episodes since 2016: the leaders themselves kept gaining (+4.9% over 60 sessions) while the broad index did not follow (-1.7% over 40 sessions). 2016年以来15次类似情形：龙头自身持续上涨（60日约+4.9%），大盘指数并未跟进（40日均回报约-1.7%）。
Calibration定标 A heads-up, not a buy signal. 这是预警，不是买入信号。

Avoid回避 · 12

⚡ Top conviction — the HK Stock Desk⚡ 最高确信 — 港股研判台 · cycle-aligned bottoming · southbound flow + A/H value + beta-neutral RS周期共振筑底 · 南向资金 + A/H 价值 + 贝塔中性相对强度 ?Shows HK names whose weekly, 3-day and daily cycles are turning up, then ranks them by flow, A/H value and beta-neutral strength.显示周线、3日、日线开始转上的港股，再按资金流、A/H 价值与贝塔中性强度排序。

Only names with a fresh entry signal make this board. Entry-open group first, then setting-up. Rank is a screen, not a promise.仅收录出现新入场信号的个股。入场开启组优先，蓄势中次之。排名是筛选，不是承诺。

1929.HK Chow Tai Fook 11.82
Consumer消费-27.7% off 52w high距52周高
Mainland crowd adding (SB z +0.9) · cycle aligned · entry: open now.内地资金加仓（南向 z +0.9） · 周期共振 · 入场：当前开启。
Entry open入场开启
78 Mainland is accumulating — flow screen南向资金加仓 — 资金筛选
🟢 Already extended (overbought / far above the 200-day) — wait for a pullback已过热（超买／远高于200日均线）— 等待回调 Extended — wait已过热 — 等回调
Buy zone — entry open now买入区 — 入场窗口已开启 11.50–11.82 (-1.4%)
BUY ZONE买入区
🇨🇳 SB南向 +0.9 · 0.8%
0656.HK Fosun International 4.15
Industrials & TransportIndustrials & Transport-31.4% off 52w high距52周高
Mainland crowd adding (SB z +0.9) · cycle aligned · entry: open now.内地资金加仓（南向 z +0.9） · 周期共振 · 入场：当前开启。
Entry open入场开启
74 Mainland is accumulating — flow screen南向资金加仓 — 资金筛选
🟢 Already extended (overbought / far above the 200-day) — wait for a pullback已过热（超买／远高于200日均线）— 等待回调 Extended — wait已过热 — 等回调
Partial entry — half size now部分入场 — 当前可建半仓 4.00–4.15 (-1.8%)
BOTTOMING筑底中
🇨🇳 SB南向 +0.9 · 14.9%
💥 Already moving已在异动
0019.HK Swire Pacific 87.40
Exchange & Diversified交易所与综合企业-4.1% off 52w high距52周高
Mainland crowd adding (SB z +0.7) · cycle aligned · entry: open now.内地资金加仓（南向 z +0.7） · 周期共振 · 入场：当前开启。
Entry open入场开启
42 Relative-strength standout — screen, not a validated pick相对强度突出 — 筛选项，非已验证买入
🟢 Already extended (overbought / far above the 200-day) — wait for a pullback已过热（超买／远高于200日均线）— 等待回调 Extended — wait已过热 — 等回调
Partial entry — half size now部分入场 — 当前可建半仓 85.74–87.40 (-0.9%)
BOTTOMING筑底中
🇨🇳 SB南向 +0.7 · 1.2%
💥 Already moving已在异动
0823.HK Link REIT 39.22
Property地产-5.8% off 52w high距52周高
cycle aligned · entry: open now.周期共振 · 入场：当前开启。
Entry open入场开启
42 Relative-strength standout — screen, not a validated pick相对强度突出 — 筛选项，非已验证买入
🟢 Already extended (overbought / far above the 200-day) — wait for a pullback已过热（超买／远高于200日均线）— 等待回调 Extended — wait已过热 — 等回调
Buy zone — entry open now买入区 — 入场窗口已开启 38.60–39.22 (-0.8%)
BUY ZONE买入区
6969.HK Smoore International 8.26
Consumer消费-63.6% off 52w high距52周高
cycle aligned · 2W washout reclaim · entry: open now.周期共振 · 2周超卖反抽 · 入场：当前开启。
Entry open入场开启
88 Exposure name — context only敞口标的 — 仅供参考
🟢 3D MACD turned up from below zero; weekly uptrend3日 MACD 在零轴下方上拐；周线上行 Entry armed入场就绪
Partial entry — half size now部分入场 — 当前可建半仓 7.90–8.26 (-2.2%)
BOTTOMING筑底中
🇨🇳 SB南向 +0.0 · 9.9%
0012.HK Henderson Land 27.26
Property地产-21.1% off 52w high距52周高
Structural screen · entry: wait for the weekly to turn.结构性筛选 · 入场：等待周线转向。
Setting up蓄势中
26 Exposure name — context only敞口标的 — 仅供参考
Avoid — downtrend回避 — 下行趋势
TURN IN PROGRESSTURN IN PROGRESS
🇨🇳 SB南向 +0.6 · 1.3%
1113.HK CK Asset Holdings 47.28
Property地产-6.8% off 52w high距52周高
Structural screen · entry: wait for the weekly to turn.结构性筛选 · 入场：等待周线转向。
Setting up蓄势中
7 Exposure name — context only敞口标的 — 仅供参考
🟢 Already extended (overbought / far above the 200-day) — wait for a pullback已过热（超买／远高于200日均线）— 等待回调 Extended — wait已过热 — 等回调
Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望 44.98–45.52 (-4.3%)
UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向
🇨🇳 SB南向 +0.1 · 1.3%
0639.HK Shougang Resources 2.27
Materials原材料-34.2% off 52w high距52周高
Mainland crowd adding (SB z +0.6) · weekly basing · entry: wait for the weekly to turn.内地资金加仓（南向 z +0.6） · 周线筑底 · 入场：等待周线转向。
Setting up蓄势中
63 Mainland is accumulating — flow screen南向资金加仓 — 资金筛选
🟡 3D StochRSI crossed up from oversold; weekly histogram recovering (still bearish)3日 StochRSI 从超卖上穿；周线柱状图回升（仍偏熊） Approaching — early临近 — 偏早
Hold — don't add here持有 — 此处不宜加仓 2.21–2.22 (-2.4%)
UPTREND上涨趋势
🇨🇳 SB南向 +0.6 · 12.4%
0778.HK Fortune REIT 4.66
Property地产-11.3% off 52w high距52周高
Structural screen · entry: wait for the weekly to turn.结构性筛选 · 入场：等待周线转向。
Setting up蓄势中
8 Exposure name — context only敞口标的 — 仅供参考
🟢 Already extended (overbought / far above the 200-day) — wait for a pullback已过热（超买／远高于200日均线）— 等待回调 Extended — wait已过热 — 等回调
Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望 4.53–4.56 (-2.5%)
UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向
0883.HK CNOOC 22.72
Energy能源-23.9% off 52w high距52周高
Structural screen · entry: wait for the weekly to turn.结构性筛选 · 入场：等待周线转向。
Setting up蓄势中
9 Exposure name — context only敞口标的 — 仅供参考
🟢 Already extended (overbought / far above the 200-day) — wait for a pullback已过热（超买／远高于200日均线）— 等待回调 Extended — wait已过热 — 等回调
Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望 21.72–22.11 (-3.5%)
UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向
🇨🇳 SB南向 +0.2 · 22.2%
0144.HK China Merchants Port 14.01
Industrials & TransportIndustrials & Transport-17.2% off 52w high距52周高
Structural screen · entry: wait for the weekly to turn.结构性筛选 · 入场：等待周线转向。
Setting up蓄势中
24 Exposure name — context only敞口标的 — 仅供参考
Avoid — downtrend回避 — 下行趋势
TURN IN PROGRESSTURN IN PROGRESS
🇨🇳 SB南向 +0.2 · 7.7%
💥 Already moving已在异动
9618.HK JD.com 116.30
Internet & Tech互联网与科技-18.2% off 52w high距52周高
Structural screen · entry: wait for the weekly to turn.结构性筛选 · 入场：等待周线转向。
Setting up蓄势中
35 Exposure name — context only敞口标的 — 仅供参考
🟢 Already extended (overbought / far above the 200-day) — wait for a pullback已过热（超买／远高于200日均线）— 等待回调 Extended — wait已过热 — 等回调
Hold — don't add here持有 — 此处不宜加仓 106.60–111.20 (-6.4%)
UPTREND上涨趋势
0016.HK Sun Hung Kai Properties 121.90
Property地产-16.6% off 52w high距52周高
Structural screen · entry: wait for the weekly to turn.结构性筛选 · 入场：等待周线转向。
Setting up蓄势中
8 Exposure name — context only敞口标的 — 仅供参考
🟢 Already extended (overbought / far above the 200-day) — wait for a pullback已过热（超买／远高于200日均线）— 等待回调 Extended — wait已过热 — 等回调
Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望 115.70–117.70 (-4.3%)
UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向
🇨🇳 SB南向 +0.4 · 2.4%
3618.HK Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank 6.37
Financials & Banks金融与银行-10.5% off 52w high距52周高
Structural screen · entry: wait for the weekly to turn.结构性筛选 · 入场：等待周线转向。
Setting up蓄势中
7 Exposure name — context only敞口标的 — 仅供参考
🟢 Already extended (overbought / far above the 200-day) — wait for a pullback已过热（超买／远高于200日均线）— 等待回调 Extended — wait已过热 — 等回调
Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望 6.12–6.21 (-3.2%)
UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向
🇨🇳 SB南向 +0.1 · 39.2%
💥 Already moving已在异动
1658.HK Postal Savings Bank of China 4.85
Financials & Banks金融与银行-13.2% off 52w high距52周高
Structural screen · entry: wait for the weekly to turn.结构性筛选 · 入场：等待周线转向。
Setting up蓄势中
8 Exposure name — context only敞口标的 — 仅供参考
🟢 Already extended (overbought / far above the 200-day) — wait for a pullback已过热（超买／远高于200日均线）— 等待回调 Extended — wait已过热 — 等回调
Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望 4.71–4.72 (-2.8%)
UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向
🇨🇳 SB南向 -0.1 · 30.3%
💥 Already moving已在异动
0135.HK Kunlun Energy 6.81
Energy能源-19.6% off 52w high距52周高
Structural screen · entry: wait for the weekly to turn.结构性筛选 · 入场：等待周线转向。
Setting up蓄势中
10 Exposure name — context only敞口标的 — 仅供参考
🟢 Already extended (overbought / far above the 200-day) — wait for a pullback已过热（超买／远高于200日均线）— 等待回调 Extended — wait已过热 — 等回调
Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望 6.61–6.69 (-2.3%)
UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向
🇨🇳 SB南向 -0.1 · 14.9%
0006.HK Power Assets 59.80
Telecom & Utilities电信与公用事业-6.9% off 52w high距52周高
2W washout reclaim · entry: wait for the weekly to turn.2周超卖反抽 · 入场：等待周线转向。
Setting up蓄势中
7 Exposure name — context only敞口标的 — 仅供参考
🟢 Already extended (overbought / far above the 200-day) — wait for a pullback已过热（超买／远高于200日均线）— 等待回调 Extended — wait已过热 — 等回调
Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望 57.56–57.75 (-3.6%)
UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向
🇨🇳 SB南向 -0.2 · 8.4%
💥 Already moving已在异动
0291.HK China Resources Beer 23.70
Consumer消费-16.3% off 52w high距52周高
2W washout reclaim · entry: wait for the weekly to turn.2周超卖反抽 · 入场：等待周线转向。
Setting up蓄势中
10 Exposure name — context only敞口标的 — 仅供参考
🟢 Already extended (overbought / far above the 200-day) — wait for a pullback已过热（超买／远高于200日均线）— 等待回调 Extended — wait已过热 — 等回调
Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望 22.23–22.81 (-5.0%)
UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向
🇨🇳 SB南向 -0.1 · 6.9%
1209.HK China Resources Mixc 39.42
Property地产-19.8% off 52w high距52周高
Structural screen · entry: wait for the weekly to turn.结构性筛选 · 入场：等待周线转向。
Setting up蓄势中
10 Exposure name — context only敞口标的 — 仅供参考
🟢 Already extended (overbought / far above the 200-day) — wait for a pullback已过热（超买／远高于200日均线）— 等待回调 Extended — wait已过热 — 等回调
Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望 38.01–38.40 (-3.1%)
UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向
🇨🇳 SB南向 +0.3 · 9.7%
0101.HK Hang Lung Properties 7.57
Property地产-23.0% off 52w high距52周高
Structural screen · entry: wait for the weekly to turn.结构性筛选 · 入场：等待周线转向。
Setting up蓄势中
11 Exposure name — context only敞口标的 — 仅供参考
🟢 Weekly bear recovering · 3-Day oversold↑ · Daily rising周线周线柱状图回升（仍偏熊） · 3日oversold↑ · 日线上行
Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望 7.19–7.25 (-4.6%)
UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向
🇨🇳 SB南向 +0.3 · 5.5%
1299.HK AIA Group 75.55
Insurance保险-15.5% off 52w high距52周高
Structural screen · entry: wait for the weekly to turn.结构性筛选 · 入场：等待周线转向。
Setting up蓄势中
9 Exposure name — context only敞口标的 — 仅供参考
🟢 Already extended (overbought / far above the 200-day) — wait for a pullback已过热（超买／远高于200日均线）— 等待回调 Extended — wait已过热 — 等回调
Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望 73.34–73.96 (-2.5%)
UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向
🇨🇳 SB南向 -0.0 · 2.8%
0285.HK BYD Electronic 23.98
Internet & Tech互联网与科技-45.2% off 52w high距52周高
Structural screen · entry: wait for the weekly to turn.结构性筛选 · 入场：等待周线转向。
Setting up蓄势中
15 Exposure name — context only敞口标的 — 仅供参考
🟢 Weekly bear recovering · 3-Day oversold↑ · Daily rising周线周线柱状图回升（仍偏熊） · 3日oversold↑ · 日线上行
Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望 22.07–22.17 (-7.8%)
UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向
🇨🇳 SB南向 +0.2 · 11.5%
💥 Already moving已在异动
1359.HK China Cinda Asset Mgmt 0.95
Financials & Banks金融与银行-43.5% off 52w high距52周高
Structural screen · entry: wait for the weekly to turn.结构性筛选 · 入场：等待周线转向。
Setting up蓄势中
15 Exposure name — context only敞口标的 — 仅供参考
🟢 Weekly bear recovering · 3-Day oversold↑ · Daily —周线周线柱状图回升（仍偏熊） · 3日oversold↑ · 日线—
Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望 0.95 (-0.1%)
UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向
🇨🇳 SB南向 -0.1 · 42.2%
2883.HK China Oilfield Services 6.76
Energy能源-36.6% off 52w high距52周高
Structural screen · entry: wait for the weekly to turn.结构性筛选 · 入场：等待周线转向。
Setting up蓄势中
14 Exposure name — context only敞口标的 — 仅供参考
🟢 Weekly bear recovering · 3-Day oversold↑ · Daily —周线周线柱状图回升（仍偏熊） · 3日oversold↑ · 日线—
Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望 6.56–6.62 (-2.5%)
UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向
🇨🇳 SB南向 +0.0 · 27.6%
1088.HK China Shenhua 42.40
Energy能源-14.0% off 52w high距52周高
Structural screen · entry: wait for the weekly to turn.结构性筛选 · 入场：等待周线转向。
Setting up蓄势中
8 Exposure name — context only敞口标的 — 仅供参考
🟢 Already extended (overbought / far above the 200-day) — wait for a pullback已过热（超买／远高于200日均线）— 等待回调 Extended — wait已过热 — 等回调
Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望 40.86–41.60 (-2.8%)
UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向
🇨🇳 SB南向 -0.0 · 70.4% A/H -0.9
9961.HK Trip.com 338.40
Consumer消费-44.4% off 52w high距52周高
weekly basing · entry: wait for the weekly to turn.周线筑底 · 入场：等待周线转向。
Setting up蓄势中
63 Exposure name — context only敞口标的 — 仅供参考
🟢 3D StochRSI crossed up from oversold; weekly histogram recovering (still bearish)3日 StochRSI 从超卖上穿；周线柱状图回升（仍偏熊） Prime entry黄金入场
Hold — don't add here持有 — 此处不宜加仓 331.10–331.20 (-2.1%)
UPTREND上涨趋势
💥 Already moving已在异动
6862.HK Haidilao 11.66
Consumer消费-32.2% off 52w high距52周高
Structural screen · entry: wait for the weekly to turn.结构性筛选 · 入场：等待周线转向。
Setting up蓄势中
14 Exposure name — context only敞口标的 — 仅供参考
🟢 Weekly bear recovering · 3-Day oversold↑ · Daily rising周线周线柱状图回升（仍偏熊） · 3日oversold↑ · 日线上行
Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望 11.16–11.19 (-4.2%)
UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向
🇨🇳 SB南向 -0.2 · 8.1%
0857.HK PetroChina 9.59
Energy能源-17.9% off 52w high距52周高
Structural screen · entry: wait for the weekly to turn.结构性筛选 · 入场：等待周线转向。
Setting up蓄势中
23 Exposure name — context only敞口标的 — 仅供参考
Avoid — downtrend回避 — 下行趋势
TURN IN PROGRESSTURN IN PROGRESS
🇨🇳 SB南向 +0.3 · 39.9% A/H -1.5
0003.HK HK & China Gas 6.80
Telecom & Utilities电信与公用事业-9.4% off 52w high距52周高
Mainland crowd trimming (SB z -1.1) · entry: wait for the weekly to turn.内地资金减仓（南向 z -1.1） · 入场：等待周线转向。
Setting up蓄势中
7 Exposure name — context only敞口标的 — 仅供参考
🟢 Already extended (overbought / far above the 200-day) — wait for a pullback已过热（超买／远高于200日均线）— 等待回调 Extended — wait已过热 — 等回调
Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望 6.62–6.63 (-2.6%)
UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向
🇨🇳 SB南向 -1.1 · 2.6%
💥 Already moving已在异动
2318.HK Ping An Insurance 54.60
Insurance保险-23.1% off 52w high距52周高
Structural screen · entry: wait for the weekly to turn.结构性筛选 · 入场：等待周线转向。
Setting up蓄势中
43 Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势
🟢 Already extended (overbought / far above the 200-day) — wait for a pullback已过热（超买／远高于200日均线）— 等待回调 Extended — wait已过热 — 等回调
Hold — don't add here持有 — 此处不宜加仓 53.05–53.60 (-2.3%)
UPTREND上涨趋势
🇨🇳 SB南向 -0.1 · 12.9% A/H -1.5
2601.HK China Pacific Insurance 28.30
Insurance保险-26.2% off 52w high距52周高
Structural screen · entry: wait for the weekly to turn.结构性筛选 · 入场：等待周线转向。
Setting up蓄势中
12 Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势
🟢 Weekly bear recovering · 3-Day oversold↑ · Daily rising周线周线柱状图回升（仍偏熊） · 3日oversold↑ · 日线上行
Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望 27.89–27.95 (-1.3%)
UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向
🇨🇳 SB南向 -0.1 · 40.7% A/H -1.6
💥 Already moving已在异动

👁 On watch — strong edge, blocked entry (wait for a base)观察名单 — 优势强但入场受阻（等待筑底）

1378.HK · 38 China Hongqiao — Mainland is accumulating — flow screen南向资金加仓 — 资金筛选 🔻 very weak trend — wait 🔻 趋势很弱 — 等待 9868.HK · 45 XPeng — Exposure name — context only敞口标的 — 仅供参考 🔻 very weak trend — wait 🔻 趋势很弱 — 等待 9698.HK · 42 GDS Holdings — Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势 🔻 very weak trend — wait 🔻 趋势很弱 — 等待 0880.HK · 63 SJM Holdings — Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势 🔻 very weak trend — wait 🔻 趋势很弱 — 等待 0323.HK · 0 Maanshan Iron & Steel — Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势 🔻 very weak trend — wait 🔻 趋势很弱 — 等待 2333.HK · 44 Great Wall Motor — Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势 🔻 very weak trend — wait 🔻 趋势很弱 — 等待 2688.HK · 14 ENN Energy — Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势 🔻 very weak trend — wait 🔻 趋势很弱 — 等待 9999.HK · 26 NetEase — Mainland is accumulating — flow screen南向资金加仓 — 资金筛选

⚠ Weakest conviction (laggards) — distribution / avoid:确信度最弱（落后股）— 派发／回避：

0780.HK Tongcheng Travel -1.200268.HK Kingdee International -0.610884.HK CIFI Holdings -2.223690.HK Meituan +0.401347.HK Hua Hong Semiconductor +3.623800.HK GCL Technology -1.63

🔥 Washout Watch洗盘点火 · igniting · unconfirmed · high-risk / context点火中 · 未确认 · 高风险 / 仅参考

Deep-decline names with confluence ignition evidence深度回调个股共振点火证据

Context only — NOT a buy signal. Accruing a forward ledger to earn promotion later.仅背景参考 — 非买入信号。持续积累记录，待后续晋级评估。

0358.HK Jiangxi Copper igniting点火中
南向↑RSI反抽
Oversold + reclaim underway · unconfirmed · wait for follow-through超卖中 + 反抽启动 · 未确认 · 等待跟进确认
RSI 43 · 30.58
2238.HK Guangzhou Auto igniting点火中
南向↑RSI反抽 🔻刀锋
Oversold + reclaim underway · unconfirmed · wait for follow-through超卖中 + 反抽启动 · 未确认 · 等待跟进确认
RSI 41 · 2.13
1378.HK China Hongqiao igniting点火中
南向↑RSI反抽 🔻刀锋
Oversold + reclaim underway · unconfirmed · wait for follow-through超卖中 + 反抽启动 · 未确认 · 等待跟进确认
RSI 44 · 22.10
0981.HK SMIC igniting点火中
ADR↑RSI反抽
Oversold + reclaim underway · unconfirmed · wait for follow-through超卖中 + 反抽启动 · 未确认 · 等待跟进确认
RSI 39 · 67.70
1072.HK Dongfang Electric washout watch洗盘观察
南向↑ 🔻刀锋
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 27 · 20.36
2888.HK Standard Chartered washout watch洗盘观察
南向↑
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 61 · 223.60
0992.HK Lenovo washout watch洗盘观察
RSI反抽
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 47 · 21.42
0323.HK Maanshan Iron & Steel washout watch洗盘观察
RSI反抽 🔻刀锋
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 36 · 1.63
2338.HK Weichai Power washout watch洗盘观察
RSI反抽
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 31 · 29.78
2628.HK China Life washout watch洗盘观察
RSI反抽
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 42 · 26.48
2392.HK Pharmaron Beijing washout watch洗盘观察
RSI反抽 🔻刀锋
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 38 · 0.99
2382.HK Sunny Optical washout watch洗盘观察
RSI反抽
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 32 · 53.95
0017.HK New World Development washout watch洗盘观察
RSI反抽 🔻刀锋
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 40 · 6.58
3800.HK GCL Technology washout watch洗盘观察
RSI反抽 🔻刀锋
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 33 · 0.60
1799.HK Xinte Energy washout watch洗盘观察
RSI反抽 🔻刀锋
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 36 · 3.84
1057.HK Zhejiang Shibao washout watch洗盘观察
RSI反抽 🔻刀锋
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 36 · 3.48
1336.HK New China Life Insurance washout watch洗盘观察
RSI反抽
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 44 · 44.56
1928.HK Sands China washout watch洗盘观察
RSI反抽
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 40 · 13.08
0486.HK RUSAL washout watch洗盘观察
RSI反抽 🔻刀锋
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 36 · 3.01
0880.HK SJM Holdings washout watch洗盘观察
RSI反抽 🔻刀锋
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 39 · 1.51
2600.HK Aluminum Corp of China washout watch洗盘观察
RSI反抽 🔻刀锋
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 38 · 7.61
0012.HK Henderson Land washout watch洗盘观察
南向↑
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 57 · 27.26
1109.HK China Resources Land washout watch洗盘观察
南向↑
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 56 · 33.72
2007.HK Country Garden washout watch洗盘观察
RSI反抽 🔻刀锋
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 39 · 0.18
3690.HK Meituan washout watch洗盘观察
ADR↑
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 61 · 83.65
0884.HK CIFI Holdings washout watch洗盘观察
RSI反抽 🔻刀锋
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 30 · 0.04
2688.HK ENN Energy washout watch洗盘观察
RSI反抽 🔻刀锋
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 38 · 42.02
1816.HK CGN Power washout watch洗盘观察
RSI反抽
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 39 · 2.73
2331.HK Li Ning washout watch洗盘观察
RSI反抽 🔻刀锋
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 37 · 14.80
1958.HK BAIC Motor washout watch洗盘观察
RSI反抽 🔻刀锋
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 33 · 0.78
2333.HK Great Wall Motor washout watch洗盘观察
RSI反抽 🔻刀锋
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 38 · 8.66
1347.HK Hua Hong Semiconductor washout watch洗盘观察
RSI反抽
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 38 · 138.70
0762.HK China Unicom washout watch洗盘观察
RSI反抽
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 40 · 6.38
1044.HK Hengan International washout watch洗盘观察
南向↑
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 60 · 24.08
0151.HK Want Want China washout watch洗盘观察
RSI反抽 🔻刀锋
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 39 · 3.44
1898.HK China Coal Energy washout watch洗盘观察
RSI反抽 🔻刀锋
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 37 · 9.98
0857.HK PetroChina washout watch洗盘观察
南向↑
Confluence building · no reclaim yet · monitoring共振积累中 · 尚未反抽 · 持续观察
RSI 56 · 9.59
1997.HK Wharf REIC chase risk追涨风险
南向↑
Extended — do not chase (RSI hot / gapped too far)过热 — 勿追涨（RSI 高位 / 跳空过大）
RSI 71 · 24.84
0316.HK Orient Overseas chase risk追涨风险
南向↑
Extended — do not chase (RSI hot / gapped too far)过热 — 勿追涨（RSI 高位 / 跳空过大）
RSI 71 · 145.00

📊 Public scoreboard — does this board rank precede runs?公开记分牌 — 本看板排名是否领先上涨？

ACCRUING累积中

The board is being tracked in public. Scores appear once enough 21d and 63d results land.看板正在公开跟踪。等21日与63日结果足够后自动显示分数。

Accruing since开始累积
2026-07-03
110 board calls logged看板结论已记录 · 27 graded已评分
First 21-day read首次21日读数
≈ 2026-08-03
first single matured cross-section首个成熟横截面
Stable rank-IC read稳定排名IC读数
≈ 2026-08-24
≥5 matured dates (late-Aug)≥5个成熟日期（8月下旬）

Hit-rate shows how often calls beat the Hang Seng. Rank-IC checks whether higher ranks did better. Delisted-name losses may be missing.命中率显示结论跑赢恒指的频率。排名IC检查高排名是否表现更好。退市亏损可能缺失。

🇨🇳 Smart-money flows — where the mainland is buying聪明钱流向 — 内地在买什么 · per-stock southbound Connect holdings个股港股通持股 · 2026-07-16 ?Per-stock mainland Connect holdings. Shows where mainland money is adding or trimming.个股南向持股。显示内地资金正在加仓或减仓哪里。

↑ Mainland accumulating内地加仓 · 5-day holding growth5日持股增长

9999.HK 网易 +60.0% 1.1%
3696.HK 英矽智能 +49.3% 15.6%
6127.HK 昭衍新药 +40.8% 60.2%
0568.HK 山东墨龙 +30.8% 62.9%
2315.HK 百奥赛图-B +22.8% 35.6%
1378.HK 中国宏桥 +21.0% 10.1%

↓ Mainland distributing内地减仓 · 5-day holding decline5日持股下降

1888.HK 建滔积层板 -37.3% 15.0%
0148.HK 建滔集团 -28.8% 25.6%
1347.HK 华虹宏力 -22.6% 21.8%
3393.HK 威胜控股 -15.9% 3.9%
0189.HK 东岳集团 -13.5% 33.0%
6869.HK 长飞光纤光缆 -12.6% 46.5%

Per-name southbound holdings across个股南向持股，覆盖 436 sized HK names. Display-only flow context.只有规模的港股。仅展示资金背景。

🌐 Global-risk screener — amplifiers, cushions, the full list🌐 全球风险筛选 — 放大器、缓冲、全名单 · beta to global risk (S&P 500, overnight)对全球风险的贝塔（标普500·隔夜） · 2026-07-17 ?HK single names are mostly risk exposures. Amplifiers move more with global risk; cushions move less.港股个股主要是风险敞口。放大器更随全球风险波动；缓冲股波动较小。

Global risk is neutral — these are exposures, not a tilt; amplifiers will move more in EITHER direction when the regime turns.全球风险中性 — 这是敞口而非倾向；当风险状态转变时，放大器在任一方向都会波动更大。 Current state:当前状态： Neutral.

Beta to S&P 500 overnight. Descriptive exposure, not a return forecast.对隔夜标普500的贝塔。描述性敞口，非收益预测。

Sector Rotation板块轮动 · RS vs HSI相对恒生指数

Sector板块 Rank排名 20d RS20日相对 60d RS60日相对 200d200日 %ile分位 Cycle state周期状态
Exchange & Diversified交易所与综合企业 1 +3.2 +9.1 ↑ 100 UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向⏱ 11d ago11天前
Financials & Banks金融与银行 2 -2.5 +5.3 ↑ 92 UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向⏱ 7d ago7天前
Internet & Tech互联网与科技 3 -6.2 +1.2 ↓ 16 NEARING A LOW接近低点⏱ today今日
Telecom & Utilities电信与公用事业 4 -1.1 +0.7 ↑ 56 UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向⏱ 7d ago7天前
Insurance保险 5 -5.2 -0.3 ↓ 50 UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向⏱ 10d ago10天前
Property地产 6 -2.6 -0.7 ↑ 62 UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向⏱ 7d ago7天前
Consumer消费 7 +2.1 -1.4 ↑ 69 UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向⏱ 10d ago10天前
Healthcare & Pharma医疗与制药 8 +10.0 -3.0 ↓ 34 NEARING A LOW接近低点⏱ today今日
Energy能源 9 -4.8 -5.9 ↓ 58 UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向⏱ 7d ago7天前
Gaming & Leisure博彩与休闲 10 -5.6 -11.5 ↓ 1 NEARING A LOW接近低点⏱ today今日
Materials原材料 11 -12.7 -24.9 ↓ 26 NEARING A LOW接近低点⏱ today今日
Auto & EV汽车与新能源车 12 -8.5 -25.2 ↓ 1 NEARING A LOW接近低点⏱ today今日

⟲ HK Basket Rotation Events港股篮子轮动事件

Leadership handoffs across curated HK thematic baskets: blowoff-crash on one basket + fresh-low turn on a peer + pair ratio confirming. Display/context tier — no rank, gate, or size anywhere. Binding kills: no cycle-position entry-confluence, southbound flow is context only (never a detector input, HKRV-R2).精选港股主题篮子间的领导权交接：某篮子冲顶崩落 + 同类篮子自新低回升 + 比值确认。仅展示/上下文层——不排名、不设门控、不调仓。约束条款：不做周期位置叠加，南向资金仅作上下文（绝非检测器输入，HKRV-R2）。

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🇭🇰 Southbound & A/H🇭🇰 南向资金与 A/H · mainland flow · flow-vs-price · cross-listing value — with a read on each内地资金 · 资金对价格 · 跨市场估值 — 每项附带解读 ?Three cross-market reads in one: daily southbound flow (mainland money into HK), whether that flow confirms or diverges from the HSI trend, and the A/H premium (how cheap HK-listed H-shares are vs their mainland A-share twins). Each carries a plain read. Display context, not a buy signal.三个跨市场读数合一：每日南向资金（内地资金流入港股）、该资金是否与恒指趋势一致或背离、以及 A/H 溢价（港股 H 相对 A 股孪生有多便宜）。每项附带简明解读。仅背景，非买卖信号。

Southbound flow南向资金 ◦ Balanced◦ 均衡
+74524
20d net (¥100M)20日净额(亿)
+0.1σ
vs 1y对比一年
12/20
net-buy days净买入
Flow roughly balanced — no strong tilt.资金大致均衡 — 无明显倾向。
Flow vs price资金 vs 价格 ✓ Confirms✓ 同向
-1.1σ
flow trend资金趋势
-6.9%
HSI恒指 63d日
Flow is backing the price trend — cleaner.资金支持价格趋势 — 更干净。
A/H premiumA/H 溢价 H richH 偏贵
+29.2%
A-over-HA 高于 H (12)
12%ile
vs 3y对比3年
-11.1pp
1y一年
H-shares rich vs A — value edge gone.H 股相对 A 偏贵 — 价值优势消退。
China Life 2628.HK+70.6%
China Construction Bank 0939.HK+41.8%
Sinopec 0386.HK+36.6%
Bank of China 3988.HK+35.8%
Built生成于 2026-07-17 17:04 UTC
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