The full reading behind the dashboard — every gauge offloaded from the front page so it stays uncluttered, kept here in compressed form. All display-only / context; nothing here scores, sizes or feeds the regime engine. A machine-readable copy is at仪表盘背后的完整读数 — 从首页移出的每个量表都在此以压缩形式保留，使首页保持简洁。全部仅供展示／参考；此处无一进行评分、定仓或进入周期引擎。机器可读副本见macro_signals.json. Updated。更新于 2026-07-16.
🔄 Business cycle — Leading · Coincident · Lagging商业周期 — 领先 · 同步 · 滞后?Conference-Board-style three-tier decomposition kept SEPARATE so the lead-lag sequence is readable. Leading indicators turn first; coincident confirm the peak; lagging confirm last. The recession signal is the CB 3 Ds — depth+duration and diffusion. Measured against NBER dates.会议委员会式三层分解，保持分离以读出领先-滞后顺序。领先指标最先转向；同步确认峰值；滞后最后确认。衰退信号采用 CB 三D — 深度+持续与扩散。以 NBER 日期实测。
🛰️ The economy & risk, in real time经济与风险 · 实时?Live reads from official Fed and options data — financial-system stress, recession odds, real-time growth & inflation, and risk appetite. Context only; never changes the regime call.来自官方美联储与期权数据的实时读数 — 金融体系压力、衰退概率、实时增长与通胀、风险偏好。仅供参考；绝不改变周期判断。
Recession risk衰退风险 · 5/100lowlow
Sahm萨姆规则0.07
NY Fed curve prob纽约联储曲线概率54%
Excess bond premium超额债券溢价-0.30
Drawdown risk回撤风险 · 16/100lowlow
P(≥10% / 63d)概率(≥10%/63日)10%
Base rate基准概率19%
Financial conditions金融条件looseloose
NFCINFCI-0.54
NFCI %ileNFCI 百分位11%
Trend趋势looseningloosening
Systemic stress (OFR)系统性压力 (OFR)calm平静
OFR FSIOFR 压力指数-2.39
Growth & inflation nowcast增长与通胀即时预测
Weekly Econ Index周度经济指数+3.17
GDPNowGDPNow+1.3%
Sticky CPI (ann.)粘性CPI(年化)0.2%
Flexible CPI (ann.)弹性CPI(年化)0.2%
Labor & real activity就业与实体活动labor mixedlabor mixed
Initial claims YoY初请同比-1.2%
Indeed postings 3mIndeed招聘3月-1.3%
Withheld taxes YoY预扣税同比+1.9%
Risk appetite风险偏好
RORO compositeRORO 综合+0.74 · risk-on
Variance risk premium方差风险溢价+5.4
VIX termVIX 期限0.86
Stock-bond corr股债相关+0.57
Capitulation投降 · 0/3
Measured bounce实测反弹+4.5%
📊 Fear / Greed composite — full breakdown恐惧/贪婪合成 — 完整拆解
Composite dial合成指针52/100Neutral中性11 legs qualifying分量入合成
← Extreme Fear极度恐惧Extreme Greed极度贪婪 →
Qualifying legs (entered composite)入合成分量z-score is greed-positive; orientation shown per legz 分数以贪婪为正；每项方向各标注
Context tiles (series too young to z-score)背景小块（序列过短，无法计算 z 分数）
CBOE put/call ratioCBOE 看跌/看涨比率
1.231
28 obs · raw context only条 · 仅原始参考
2026-07-13
AAII sentiment (bullish %)AAII 情绪（看多占比）
36.3
23 obs · raw context only条 · 仅原始参考
2026-07-08
Sentiment context only — display-only composite of public market indicators. Never scored, never feeds the regime engine, no forward claim. Greed/fear readings are not contrarian signals without regime context.仅为情绪参考 — 公开市场指标的仅展示合成。不计分，不进入周期引擎，无前瞻性判断。贪婪/恐惧读数若无周期背景，不构成反向信号。
Regime internals — the two dials周期内部 — 两个刻度盘?The regime label comes from two scores between −1 and +1, built from market prices (lead) plus a small weight on economic data (confirm). The chips show which indicators agree (green) vs disagree (red) with the call.周期标签来自两个介于 −1 与 +1 之间的分数，由市场价格（领先）加上经济数据（确认）的小幅权重构建。标签显示哪些指标与判断同向（绿）或反向（红）。
Watch how many S&P 500 stocks are in uptrends — of everything supporting the current call, it's the one closest to flipping sides. If it fades, the growth dial (and possibly the regime) goes with it.关注 how many S&P 500 stocks are in uptrends — 在支撑当前判断的所有因素中，它最接近翻转。若其转弱，growth 刻度（乃至周期）也会随之改变。
Does the market agree?市场是否认同？
framework and tape agree
Commodities & macro tape大宗商品与宏观盘面
instrument标的
trend趋势
RSI
off 52w距52周高
3mo3月
Gold黄金
✗200 ✗50
39
-24.9%
-15.4%
Crude Oil原油
✓200 ✗50
55
-29.9%
-16.1%
Copper铜
✓200 ✗50
51
-5.9%
+3.9%
US Dollar美元
✓200 ✓50
51
-0.9%
+2.0%
Who's positioned how — the crowd meter谁如何持仓 — 拥挤度计
who / what谁／什么
where they stand当前位置
S&P 500 futures speculators标普500 期货投机者
normal正常— nothing notable无显著
10-yr Treasury futures speculators10年期美债 期货投机者
crowded short拥挤做空— everyone is already short — stretched; squeezes start here大家都已做空 — 已拉伸；逼空由此开始
Fed liquidity — the money tide美联储流动性 — 资金潮?Net money in the system (Fed balance sheet − reverse-repo − Treasury account), in billions, plus its 4-week change. Expanding (green) is historically the most reliable tailwind; contracting (red) is a headwind.系统内净资金（美联储资产负债表 − 逆回购 − 财政部账户），单位十亿，及其 4 周变化。扩张（绿）历史上最可靠的顺风；收缩（红）为逆风。
Credit stress & market breadth信用压力与市场广度?High-yield spread (the market's early smoke detector) over % of the S&P above its 50-day average (participation). Strong index + collapsing breadth = fragile.高收益利差（市场早期烟雾探测器）叠加标普中高于50日均线的股票占比（参与度）。指数强而广度崩塌 = 脆弱。
VIX monitorVIX 监测
16.73+1.06 (+6.8%)normal正常
Term structure期限结构0.86contango正向 · percentile百分位 45