IPO Radar · context, not a crystal ball新股雷达 · 背景，而非水晶球
Is the IPO window open — and is it worth chasing?新股窗口是否开启 —— 值得追吗？
As of截至 2026-07-16
Display-only · avoidance + context, never a buy signal仅供参考 · 规避与背景，绝非买入信号
The day-1 IPO “pop” is genuinely predictable — but it is measured from the rationed OFFER price, and the opening trade already prices it in (Ritter–Welch). Without an offer-price allocation (which retail and small funds structurally cannot get), it is NOT capturable. Held from the first close, IPOs underperform (Ritter: median 3-year return ≈ −26%). So this page does not predict pops. It reads whether the issuance window is open and shows what buying new issues in the secondary market has actually returned — an avoidance + context tool.新股上市首日的“爆涨”确实可预测 —— 但它是相对被配售的发行价计量的，而开盘价已将其计入（Ritter–Welch）。没有发行价配售（散户与小型基金在结构上拿不到），这部分收益无法捕获。若从首日收盘买入并持有，新股长期跑输（Ritter：3 年中位回报约 −26%）。因此本页不预测爆涨，而是判断发行窗口是否开启，并展示在二级市场买入新股的真实回报 —— 一个规避与背景工具。
Is the issuance window open?发行窗口是否开启？
OPEN开启
5/6 risk-appetite legs constructive风险偏好分项为偏好
Coincident read — it describes whether the window is open NOW; it does not forecast it, and it is never scored.同步读数 —— 它描述窗口当前是否开启，并不预测，且从不计分。
Reality check: “buy new IPOs” in the aftermarket现实检验：在二级市场“买新股”
-2.4%
IPO ETF新股ETF trails跑输 the S&P标普
Renaissance IPO ETF, 5-yr annualised复兴新股ETF，5年年化: -2.4% vs S&P对比标普 +13.2% (-15.6 pp/yr)
What the window read is made of窗口读数的构成
| Risk-appetite leg风险偏好分项 | Reading读数 | State状态 |
|---|
| Macro risk backdrop宏观风险背景 validated de-risk score (reused, not new)复用已验证的降险评分（非新建） |
13/100 |
constructive偏好 |
| Volatility (VIX)波动率（VIX） low vol = receptive tape低波动 = 接纳新股的盘面 |
16.7 |
neutral中性 |
| Credit appetite (HY vs IG)信用偏好（高收益 vs 投资级） high-yield leading = risk-on credit高收益领先 = 信用风险偏好 |
+1.7% |
constructive偏好 |
| Small-cap leadership (IWM vs SPY)小盘领先（IWM vs SPY） small-caps leading = appetite for risk/new names小盘领先 = 对风险/新名的偏好 |
+2.3% |
constructive偏好 |
| Speculative appetite (high-beta vs low-vol)投机偏好（高贝塔 vs 低波） high-beta leading = speculative bid高贝塔领先 = 投机性买盘 |
+6.7% |
constructive偏好 |
| IPO basket trend (IPO vs SPY)新股篮子趋势（IPO vs SPY） recent-IPO ETF leading = aftermarket demand新股ETF领先 = 二级市场需求 |
+3.3% |
constructive偏好 |
Legs reuse existing market reads (the validated macro de-risk score, VIX, HY-vs-IG credit, small-cap & high-beta leadership, the IPO ETF trend). The window is a description of risk appetite, not a forecast of it — and nothing here feeds any score or allocation.各分项复用既有市场读数（已验证的宏观降险评分、VIX、高收益对投资级信用、小盘与高贝塔领先、新股ETF趋势）。窗口是对风险偏好的描述而非预测 —— 且此处任何内容都不进入任何评分或仓位。
The aftermarket trade · IPO & IPOX vs the S&P (5y, rebased)二级市场交易 · 新股与IPOX对比标普（5年，归一）
| Basket篮子 | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y |
|---|
| Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO) | +19.9% | +15.4% | -2.4% |
| First Trust IPOX-100 (FPX) | +26.2% | +26.5% | +9.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +21.3% | +20.0% | +13.2% |
This is the crux: the day-1 pop accrues to offer-price allocants, not to anyone buying in the open market. A mechanical “own recent IPOs” basket (the Renaissance IPO ETF) has trailed the S&P over five years; the quality-tilted IPOX (FPX) does better but is a large-cap/quality factor tilt, not underpricing capture. The honest edge in IPOs is discipline about what to AVOID.这是关键：首日爆涨归于发行价配售者，而非任何在公开市场买入的人。机械式“持有近期新股”篮子（复兴新股ETF）五年来跑输标普；偏质量的 IPOX（FPX）表现较好，但那是大盘/质量因子倾斜，并非对低定价的捕获。新股中诚实的优势在于对“应当规避什么”的纪律。
Lock-up expiry overhang · the most watchable leg禁售期到期压力 · 最值得关注的一环
When a fresh IPO's ~180-day lock-up expires, insider / VC / PE supply hits a thin float — a documented one-sided overhang (Field & Hanka: ~−1.5% / −3% VC-backed 3-day drift, ~+40% volume). The date is deterministic and free from the prospectus. Honest framing: this is an AVOID / don't-add-into-the-cliff flag, NOT a tradeable short — borrow is scarce and the drift is small net of cost.当新股约180天的禁售期到期时，内部人／风投／私募的供给会冲击稀薄的流通盘 —— 有据可查的单边压力（Field & Hanka：约 −1.5%／风投支持 −3% 的三日漂移，成交量约 +40%）。该日期可从招股书免费且确定地获得。诚实说明：这是“临近解禁回避／勿加仓”的提示，而非可交易做空 —— 借券稀缺，且扣成本后漂移很小。
Phase-0 event studyPhase-0 事件研究 (77 recent IPOs近期新股, 2026-06-16): the [-1,+3]-day abnormal return vs the S&P averaged解禁日 [-1,+3] 相对标普的超额收益平均为 +0.9% (44.2% negative为负, t=0.812) — no measurable, tradeable edge on our (survivorship-biased) sample. This is a deterministic supply-event calendar, NOT a forecast — and it is never scored.在我们（含幸存者偏差的）样本上没有可测量、可交易的优势。这是一个确定的供给事件日历，而非预测 —— 且从不计分。
24 approaching (≤45d)临近（≤45天）
3 overhang active (≤30d)解禁压力中（≤30天）
37 prospectus-confirmed招股书已确认
| Lock-up expiry禁售期到期 | Ticker代码 | Company公司 | Priced定价 | Lock-up禁售 | Status状态 |
|---|
| 2026-07-07 · 10d ago10天前 |
BUDA |
BUDA JUICE, INC. |
2026-01-08 |
180d |
📉 overhang active📉 解禁压力中 |
| 2026-07-08 · 9d ago9天前 |
AKTS |
Aktis Oncology, Inc. |
2026-01-09 |
180d |
📉 overhang active📉 解禁压力中 |
| 2026-07-12 · 5d ago5天前 |
GCDT |
Green Circle Decarbonize Technology Ltd |
2026-01-13 |
180d |
📉 overhang active📉 解禁压力中 |
| 2026-07-21 · in 4d4天后 |
BTGO |
BITGO HOLDINGS, INC. |
2026-01-22 |
180d |
⚠ approaching⚠ 临近解禁 |
| 2026-07-22 · in 5d5天后 |
EQPT |
EquipmentShare.com Inc |
2026-01-23 |
180d |
⚠ approaching⚠ 临近解禁 |
| 2026-07-26 · in 9d9天后 |
VTIX |
Virtuix Holdings Inc. |
2026-01-27 |
180d |
⚠ approaching⚠ 临近解禁 |
| 2026-07-27 · in 10d10天后 |
PPHC |
Public Policy Holding Company, Inc. |
2026-01-28 |
180d |
⚠ approaching⚠ 临近解禁 |
| 2026-07-28 · in 11d11天后 |
LIFE |
Ethos Technologies Inc. |
2026-01-29 |
180d |
⚠ approaching⚠ 临近解禁 |
| 2026-07-28 · in 11d11天后 |
YSS |
York Space Systems Inc. |
2026-01-29 |
180d |
⚠ approaching⚠ 临近解禁 |
| 2026-07-28 · in 11d11天后 |
PICS |
PicS N.V. |
2026-01-29 |
180d |
⚠ approaching⚠ 临近解禁 |
| 2026-07-29 · in 12d12天后 |
VHUB |
VenHub Global, Inc. |
2026-01-30 |
180d est估 |
⚠ approaching⚠ 临近解禁 |
| 2026-08-01 · in 15d15天后 |
PLYX |
Polaryx Therapeutics, Inc. |
2026-02-02 |
180d |
⚠ approaching⚠ 临近解禁 |
| 2026-08-03 · in 17d17天后 |
OBAI |
Our Bond, Inc. |
2026-02-04 |
180d |
⚠ approaching⚠ 临近解禁 |
| 2026-08-04 · in 18d18天后 |
EIKN |
Eikon Therapeutics, Inc. |
2026-02-05 |
180d |
⚠ approaching⚠ 临近解禁 |
| 2026-08-04 · in 18d18天后 |
FPS |
Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. |
2026-02-05 |
180d |
⚠ approaching⚠ 临近解禁 |
| 2026-08-04 · in 18d18天后 |
BOBS |
Bob's Discount Furniture, Inc. |
2026-02-05 |
180d |
⚠ approaching⚠ 临近解禁 |
| 2026-08-04 · in 18d18天后 |
CEPS |
Cantor Equity Partners VI, Inc. |
2026-02-05 |
180d est估 |
⚠ approaching⚠ 临近解禁 |
| 2026-08-05 · in 19d19天后 |
OFRM |
Once Upon a Farm, PBC |
2026-02-06 |
180d |
⚠ approaching⚠ 临近解禁 |
| 2026-08-05 · in 19d19天后 |
AGMB |
Agomab Therapeutics NV |
2026-02-06 |
180d |
⚠ approaching⚠ 临近解禁 |
| 2026-08-05 · in 19d19天后 |
SGP |
SpyGlass Pharma, Inc. |
2026-02-06 |
180d |
⚠ approaching⚠ 临近解禁 |
| 2026-08-10 · in 24d24天后 |
MWH |
SOLV Energy, Inc. |
2026-02-11 |
180d |
⚠ approaching⚠ 临近解禁 |
| 2026-08-10 · in 24d24天后 |
AGBK |
AGI Inc |
2026-02-11 |
180d |
⚠ approaching⚠ 临近解禁 |
| 2026-08-11 · in 25d25天后 |
BRAI |
Braiin Ltd |
2026-02-12 |
180d |
⚠ approaching⚠ 临近解禁 |
| 2026-08-11 · in 25d25天后 |
APC |
ARKO Petroleum Corp. |
2026-02-12 |
180d |
⚠ approaching⚠ 临近解禁 |
Operating companies only (SPACs excluded — different mechanics). Lock-up length is parsed from the final S-1/424B prospectus where confirmed, else the 180-day market standard ('est'). Display-only, never scored — there is no validated forecast here, only a deterministic supply-event calendar.仅营运公司（剔除 SPAC —— 机制不同）。禁售期长度在已确认处取自最终 S-1／424B 招股书，否则取 180 天市场标准（“估”）。仅供展示，从不计分 —— 此处没有经验证的预测，只有一个确定的供给事件日历。
Issuance pipeline · how busy & how frothy发行管道 · 繁忙度与泡沫度
Priced · 30d定价 · 30天
31
new deals priced新交易定价
Priced · 90d定价 · 90天
113
pace节奏: busy繁忙
SPAC share · 90dSPAC占比 · 90天
50%
56/113 blank-checks空白支票
Upcoming / Filed即将 / 已申报
2 / 329
expected · on file (S-1)预期 · 在档（S-1）
Withdrawn · 90d撤回 · 90天: 21
Median operating-co deal · 90d营运公司交易中位 · 90天: $280M
⚠ elevated SPAC shareSPAC占比偏高
Recently priced · last 120 days近期定价 · 最近120天
| Priced定价日 | Ticker代码 | Company公司 | Offer发行价 | Size规模 | Demand (vs range)需求（对比区间） | vs offer对比发行 |
|---|
| 2026-07-16 · d+1 |
QMLS |
QumulusAI, Inc. |
$nan |
$nan |
— |
— |
| 2026-07-16 · d+1 |
STDN |
Standard Nuclear, Inc. |
$15.00 |
$150M |
— |
— |
| 2026-07-16 · d+1 |
CSQR |
Csquare, Inc. |
$21.00 |
$1.1B |
— |
— |
| 2026-07-14 · d+3 |
JONEU |
Jones Ventures INTL Acquisition1 CorpSPAC |
$10.00 |
$200M |
— |
— |
| 2026-07-13 · d+4 |
RACD |
Research Alliance Corp IV |
$10.00 |
$75M |
— |
— |
| 2026-07-10 · d+7 |
SKHY |
SK hynix Inc. |
$149.00 |
$26.5B |
— |
— |
| 2026-07-10 · d+7 |
SAMOU |
Samos Energy Acquisition CorpSPAC |
$10.00 |
$200M |
— |
— |
| 2026-07-09 · d+8 |
MRCOU |
Mercator Acquisition Corp.SPAC |
$10.00 |
$150M |
— |
— |
| 2026-07-09 · d+8 |
CCCTU |
Columbus Circle Capital Corp IIISPAC |
$10.00 |
$200M |
— |
— |
| 2026-07-08 · d+9 |
FDMMU |
Freedom Metals Acquisition Corp.SPAC |
$10.00 |
$275M |
— |
— |
| 2026-07-07 · d+10 |
BCCQU |
Bleichroeder Acquisition Corp. IIISPAC |
$10.00 |
$300M |
— |
— |
| 2026-07-02 · d+15 |
VIIU |
Viking Acquisition Corp. IISPAC |
$10.00 |
$200M |
— |
— |
| 2026-07-02 · d+15 |
MIACU |
Meridian3 Industrials Acquisition CorpSPAC |
$10.00 |
$175M |
— |
— |
| 2026-07-01 · d+16 |
LIME |
Neutron Holdings, Inc. |
$25.00 |
$174M |
— |
— |
| 2026-07-01 · d+16 |
OSPRU |
Osprey Acquisition Corp. IIISPAC |
$10.00 |
$261M |
— |
— |
| 2026-07-01 · d+16 |
BSP |
Bending Spoons S.p.A. |
$29.00 |
$1.7B |
— |
— |
| 2026-07-01 · d+16 |
ITG |
ITG, Inc./DE/ |
$16.00 |
$312M |
— |
— |
| 2026-06-30 · d+17 |
AAC'U |
Ares Acquisition Corp IIISPAC |
$10.00 |
$345M |
— |
— |
| 2026-06-26 · d+21 |
SIND |
Sinda Ltd. |
$12.00 |
$213M |
bottom of range区间下沿 -2% |
— |
| 2026-06-25 · d+22 |
ALPXU |
Alpex Acquisition CorpSPAC |
$10.00 |
$100M |
— |
— |
| 2026-06-25 · d+22 |
DSC |
DSC Holdings Ltd. |
$17.00 |
$51M |
— |
— |
| 2026-06-25 · d+22 |
DPC |
DPC Holdings Ltd |
$33.00 |
$919M |
— |
— |
| 2026-06-25 · d+22 |
FWACU |
Futurewave Acquisition CorpSPAC |
$10.00 |
$75M |
— |
— |
| 2026-06-25 · d+22 |
CGCFU |
Cartesian Growth Corp IVSPAC |
$10.00 |
$250M |
— |
— |
| 2026-06-23 · d+24 |
GHXIU |
Gores Holdings XI, Inc.SPAC |
$10.00 |
$312M |
— |
— |
| 2026-06-18 · d+29 |
TVIVU |
Texas Ventures Acquisition IV CorpSPAC |
$10.00 |
$150M |
— |
— |
| 2026-06-18 · d+29 |
WLCOU |
Wilco 63 CorpSPAC |
$10.00 |
$200M |
— |
— |
| 2026-06-18 · d+29 |
KARD |
Kardigan, Inc. |
$16.00 |
$400M |
— |
— |
| 2026-06-18 · d+29 |
FCBM |
First Carolina Financial Services, Inc. |
$12.50 |
$69M |
— |
— |
| 2026-06-18 · d+29 |
FISN |
DEEP FISSION, INC. |
$16.00 |
$40M |
— |
— |
“vs offer” shows only where we already hold the price series — most fresh IPOs are outside our coverage universe, so it is usually blank by design (we do not chase per-name quotes for a context page). SPACs are flagged, never dropped: they price at $10, rarely pop, and distort IPO base rates. Post-listing quality/factor coverage (accruals, profitability, valuation-vs-comps) only switches on after a name has its first annual report (~12 months) or joins an index — so fresh IPOs sit in a deliberate coverage hole rather than getting a fabricated quality score.“对比发行”仅在我们已持有该价格序列时显示 —— 多数新上市公司不在我们的覆盖范围内，故通常按设计留空（背景页不逐一抓取报价）。SPAC 被标记而非剔除：它们以 $10 定价、极少爆涨，会扭曲新股基准比率。上市后的质量/因子覆盖（应计、盈利能力、相对估值）只有在公司发布首份年报（约12个月）或被纳入指数后才会启用 —— 因此新上市公司处于刻意的覆盖空窗，而非被赋予虚构的质量评分。
“Demand (vs range)” = the final offer price vs the marketed range (partial-adjustment, Hanley) — the single strongest day-1 predictor, but it is finalised the night before trading and is not capturable without an allocation, so it is context, never a buy signal. It accrues forward as deals move from the upcoming calendar to priced.“需求（对比区间）” = 最终发行价相对营销区间（部分调整，Hanley）—— 单日最强的预测因子，但在交易前夜才敲定，且没有配售便无法捕获，故为背景而非买入信号。它随着交易从“即将”日历转为“已定价”而向前累积。
Expected to price soon预计即将定价
| Expected预期日 | Ticker代码 | Company公司 | Range区间 | Size规模 |
|---|
| 2026-07-17 |
AMACU |
AMR Resources Acquisition Corp.SPAC |
$10 |
$250M |
| 2026-07-17 |
NCOU |
Southern Cross Acquisition I Corp.SPAC |
$10 |
$115M |
Hong Kong IPO backdrop · the more retail-tradeable market香港新股背景 · 更适合散户参与的市场
MIXED混合
Liquidity-backdrop read流动性背景读数 · as of截至 2026-07-17
| Backdrop leg背景分项 | Reading读数 | State状态 |
|---|
| Southbound flow (20d net)南向资金（20日净额） mainland capital into HK = primary-market fuel |
+74,524 HK$mn+74,524 HK$mn |
constructive偏好 |
| Subscription funding (1M HIBOR)认购融资成本（1个月 HIBOR） cheap HK$ funding = leveraged retail subscription |
2.83%2.83% |
neutral中性 |
| HKD peg pressure港元联系汇率压力 inflow side supports issuance |
weak-side (outflow)弱方（资金流出） |
cautious谨慎 |
| HK risk appetite香港风险偏好 risk-on tape welcomes new issues |
Neutral中性 |
neutral中性 |
Liquidity backdrop only — HK is structurally more retail-tradeable (public-offer tranche + clawback, published subscription multiple, grey market) but those keyless primary-market feeds are currently broken/blocked, so this is the issuance environment, not a deal signal. Never scored.仅为流动性背景 —— 香港在结构上更适合散户参与（公开发售部分＋回拨机制、公开的超额认购倍数、暗盘），但这些免密钥的一级市场数据目前失效／受阻，故此处是发行环境而非交易级信号。从不计分。
Why this is context, not a prediction — and US vs Hong Kong为何这是背景而非预测 —— 以及美国 vs 香港
The pre-pricing public-data edge on day-1 underpricing is real and replicated out-of-sample (Huang–Jiang–Li–Wu; Çolak–Fu–Hasan find XGBoost predicts the direction well) — its strongest input is the bookbuilding price revision, finalised the night before trading. But it is an allocation good we cannot capture, so we never turn it into a score or a buy signal here.发行前公开数据对首日低定价的预测优势是真实且经样本外复现的（Huang–Jiang–Li–Wu；Çolak–Fu–Hasan 发现 XGBoost 能较好预测方向）—— 其最强输入是簿记建档中的定价修正，在交易前夜才敲定。但这是我们无法捕获的配售品，因此本页绝不将其转化为评分或买入信号。
Hong Kong is structurally more retail-tradeable (a mandatory public-offer tranche with a clawback, a published over-subscription multiple, and a grey market that trades the night before listing) — but the keyless data for those signals is currently broken/blocked, so an HK leg is deferred. The next, more capturable leg is the 180-day LOCKUP-EXPIRY overhang: a deterministic, free-from-the-prospectus date with documented one-sided supply pressure — an avoid/de-risk-into-the-cliff flag rather than a tradeable short.香港在结构上对散户更可交易（强制公开发售部分与回拨机制、公开的超额认购倍数，以及上市前夜交易的暗盘）—— 但这些信号的免密钥数据目前失效/受阻，故香港分项暂缓。下一个更可捕获的分项是 180 天禁售期到期的供给压制：一个确定的、可从招股书免费获取的日期，且有据可查的单边供给压力 —— 属于“临近解禁回避/降险”的提示，而非可交易的做空。