World markets — turns & rotation全球市场 — 拐点与轮动?State machine per market: crash/breaking/topping (memory-aware, not snapshot); extended/parabolic; uptrend/downtrend/recovery. Urgency-sorted — hottest markets first. Stance line = what to do. Pullback-risk chip: separate leading-risk radar per market (US rates, currency, price extension); odds measured from own-market history; display-only while its live forward log accrues. Display-only, not a forecast.每个市场的状态机：崩跌/破位/拐顶（有记忆，非快照）；偏高/抛物线；上行趋势/下行趋势/修复。按紧迫度排序——最热市场在前。立场行 = 操作建议。回撤风险标签：各市场独立的领先风险雷达（美债利率、汇率、价格伸展）；概率测自该市场自身历史；前向日志累积期间仅作展示。仅展示，非预测。
Pullback odds are each market's own long-run odds — this radar's live track record is still building, so no extra lift is added yet. Risk chips are context only — they never rank or exclude markets.回撤概率为各市场自身的长期基础概率——该雷达的实时跟踪记录仍在累积，暂未叠加额外调整。风险标签仅供参考——不参与排名或筛选。
What changed近期变化
2026-07-16🇮🇳India印度
— Reclaimed its 20-day average收复20日均线
2026-07-14🇮🇳India印度
— Lost its 20-day average跌破20日均线
2026-07-14🇦🇺Australia澳大利亚
— Reclaimed its 20-day average收复20日均线
2026-07-14🇬🇧United Kingdom英国
— Reclaimed its 20-day average收复20日均线
🌍 Global Macro Compass全球宏观罗盘
International Economies国际经济体
7 economies; most read growth OK, inflation calm. In USD, South Korea leads (+98% 12m) and India lags (-12% 12m). Mixed — no decisive US/ex-US rotation. Cross-market risk appetite risk-on (74/100).7 个经济体，多数为增长尚可、通胀温和。以美元计，韩国 领先（+98% 12m），印度 落后（-12% 12m）。分化 — 美国与非美无明显轮动。跨市场风险偏好风险偏好（74/100）。
Dominant regime主导周期
growth OK, inflation calm增长尚可、通胀温和
7 economies经济体?Internal quad label: Goldilocks. Hysteresis-smoothed regime score. May lag fast market turns by 4–6 weeks.内部四象限标签：Goldilocks。含滞后平滑的周期评分。在市场快速转向时可能滞后4–6周。
Risk appetite风险偏好
74 /100
Risk-on风险偏好 · 6/7 above 200d站上200日
US vs World美国 vs 全球
Mixed — no decisive US/ex-US rotation分化 — 美国与非美无明显轮动
3/7 ex-US markets gaining非美市场占优
USD leader美元领涨
🇰🇷 KR
KR leads on 12m but is crashing nowKR 12个月涨幅居前，但目前崩跌中
Recession-watch衰退观察
1
of共 7 · drawdown-watch回撤观察 2
Avg correlation平均相关性
0.52
cross-market, USD跨市场，美元
data through数据截至 2026-07-16 · built生成 2026-07-17 17:37 UTC · context only仅作背景
· Stock dashboard股票看板 →
Performance in US dollars以美元计的表现?Shows each market in USD, split into local stock return and currency effect. Price return only. Default sort: rotation rank (fast 20d momentum, state-gated). 12m sort still available via buttons.以美元看各市场表现，并拆成股市涨跌与汇率影响。仅价格回报。默认排序：轮动排名（20日快速动能，受状态约束）。12月排序仍可通过按钮切换。
local equity本币股票currency tailwind货币顺风currency drag货币拖累net USD return美元净收益
US vs the World — capital rotation美国 vs 全球 — 资本轮动?Maps who is beating the US and whether that lead is improving or fading. Display-only.显示谁跑赢美国，以及领先是在增强还是减弱。仅展示。
Mixed — no decisive US/ex-US rotation分化 — 美国与非美无明显轮动
↖ Improving改善
Leading领先 ↗
↙ Lagging落后
Weakening走弱 ↘
behind US落后美国
ahead领先
🇹🇼
TW
🇯🇵
JP
🇰🇷
KR
🇪🇺
EZ
🇬🇧
GB
🇦🇺
AU
🇮🇳
IN
Market市场
Phase阶段
vs US 3m对美3月
6m6月
12m12月
🇹🇼Taiwan台湾
Leading领先
+14.2%
+35.6%
+52.0%
🇯🇵Japan日本
Leading领先
+5.4%
+12.9%
+27.8%
🇰🇷South Korea韩国
Leading领先
+3.8%
+33.1%
+64.4%
🇪🇺Eurozone欧元区
Lagging落后
-5.7%
-4.3%
-3.9%
🇬🇧United Kingdom英国
Lagging落后
-7.5%
-3.6%
-1.7%
🇦🇺Australia澳大利亚
Lagging落后
-10.0%
-3.3%
-9.3%
🇮🇳India印度
Lagging落后
-10.3%
-18.9%
-29.2%
Positive = beat the S&P 500 over that window. Relative-strength lens only.正值 = 该周期跑赢标普500。仅相对强弱视角。
Cross-country comparison跨国对比?Same scorecard for every economy: regime, recession risk, rates, CPI, FX, and equity stretch.每个经济体用同一套表：周期、衰退风险、利率、CPI、汇率与股市拉伸。
Economy经济体
1Y · USD1年 · 美元
Regime周期
State状态
Recession衰退
Policy政策利率
10y10年
Curve曲线
Real 10y实际10年
CPICPI
GDPGDP
Unemp失业
FX 3m汇率3月
Off high距高点
Drawdown回撤?Realized damage from the 252-day high — how much has already been lost, not a forward risk estimate.距252日高点的已实现回撤——衡量已损失多少，而非前瞻风险预估。
Market state市场状态
🇯🇵Japan日本
Goldilocks理想增长0.05
Turn risk拐点风险
16
1.24%
2.65%
1.41
—
-0.5% 2021-06
0.3%
2.5%
-1.2%
-7.2%
29
Turn risk拐点风险
🇰🇷South Korea韩国
Goldilocks理想增长0.05
Crash in progress崩跌进行中
55
2.82%
4.08%
1.26
0.79
2.0% 2025-04
3.8%
2.8%
0.2%
-24.9%
70
Crash in progress崩跌进行中
🇹🇼Taiwan台湾data-limited数据有限
Goldilocks理想增长0.17
Turn risk拐点风险
16
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
-1.6%
-4.0%
17
Turn risk拐点风险
🇮🇳India印度
Goldilocks理想增长0.17
Quiet平静
34
—
7.02%
—
3.36
3.0% 2025-03
—
—
-1.5%
-8.4%
47
Quiet平静
🇦🇺Australia澳大利亚
Goldilocks理想增长0.10
Quiet平静
27
4.43%
4.99%
0.56
1.87
2.4% 2025-01
2.5%
4.5%
-1.8%
-4.0%
8
Quiet平静
🇬🇧United Kingdom英国
Goldilocks理想增长0.10
Healthy trend趋势健康
14
3.71%
4.94%
1.23
1.12
3.4% 2025-03
0.9%
4.9%
-0.9%
-3.6%
7
Healthy trend趋势健康
🇪🇺Eurozone欧元区
Reflation再通胀0.43
Turn risk拐点风险
6
2.25%
3.22%
1.19
0.08
3.1% 2026-05
0.3%
6.7%
-2.5%
-1.5%
3
Turn risk拐点风险
Descriptive only. Equity stretch uses each market's own history.仅描述。股市拉伸按各市场自身历史衡量。
Rates & curve desk利率与曲线室?Compares yield curves, real yields, 10-year yield drift, and carry vs the US.比较收益率曲线、实际利率、10年利率变化，以及相对美国的套息。
US anchor美国锚: 4.58% 10y · 4.18% 2y · curve曲线 +0.40
🇯🇵Japan日本normal正常
3m 1.2
10y 2.6
Curve 10y−3m曲线 10年−3月1.41Real 10y实际10年—Carry vs US对美套息-1.9310y · 3m drift10年 · 3月漂移+0.1310y vel 20d10年20日速度
↑ +180bp
(z+2.8)
🇰🇷South Korea韩国normal正常
3m 2.8
10y 4.1
Curve 10y−3m曲线 10年−3月1.26Real 10y实际10年0.79Carry vs US对美套息-0.5010y · 3m drift10年 · 3月漂移+0.3410y vel 20d10年20日速度
↑ +106bp
(z+1.4)
🇹🇼Taiwan台湾——
No keyless yield curve for this market — read leans on the equity tape.该市场无免密钥收益率曲线 — 读数依赖股市行情。
🇮🇳India印度——
3m —
10y 7.0
Curve 10y−3m曲线 10年−3月—Real 10y实际10年3.36Carry vs US对美套息+2.4410y · 3m drift10年 · 3月漂移-0.0310y vel 20d10年20日速度
↑ +19bp
(z+0.4)
🇦🇺Australia澳大利亚normal正常
3m 4.4
10y 5.0
Curve 10y−3m曲线 10年−3月0.56Real 10y实际10年1.87Carry vs US对美套息+0.4110y · 3m drift10年 · 3月漂移+0.0210y vel 20d10年20日速度
↑ +107bp
(z+1.0)
🇬🇧United Kingdom英国normal正常
3m 3.7
10y 4.9
Curve 10y−3m曲线 10年−3月1.23Real 10y实际10年1.12Carry vs US对美套息+0.3610y · 3m drift10年 · 3月漂移+0.1210y vel 20d10年20日速度
↑ +104bp
(z+1.1)
🇪🇺Eurozone欧元区normal正常
3m 2.0
10y 3.2
Curve 10y−3m曲线 10年−3月1.19Real 10y实际10年0.08Carry vs US对美套息-1.3610y · 3m drift10年 · 3月漂移+0.0010y vel 20d10年20日速度
↑ +10bp
(z+0.4)
🇪🇺 Eurozone fragmentation — peripheral spreads over Bund欧元区分化 — 外围国相对德债利差?Wider spreads mean more Eurozone stress; tighter spreads mean calmer conditions.利差走阔代表欧元区压力上升；收窄代表环境更稳。
Spread利差
bps基点
3m3月
Read读数
🇮🇹Italy (BTP)意大利 (BTP)
77 bps
-26
tightening收窄
🇪🇸Spain (Bonos)西班牙 (Bonos)
44 bps
-24
tightening收窄
🇫🇷France (OAT)法国 (OAT)
70 bps
+40
widening走阔
As of截至 2026-05-01
🏦ECB balance-sheet impulse欧央行资产负债表脉冲QT缩表
Total assets总资产€5.97T13-week13周-4.4%52-week52周-2.7%As of截至2026-07-12
As of 2026-07-17 · context only, not a forecast截至 2026-07-17 · 仅作背景，非预测
Contagion board传导看板?How tightly are global markets linked right now? The score (0–100) measures how far a shock in one market travels to others, using a rolling 150-day window. Higher = shocks spread faster. Top shock senders are markets that export the most stress to peers. US receiving share = how much of international stress eventually reaches the S&P 500 — this is a transmission read, not a causal share. Source: daily ETF returns.全球市场目前关联程度如何？得分（0–100）衡量某市场冲击向其他市场的传导程度，使用150日滚动窗口。数值越高，冲击传播越快。前三大冲击输出方是最多向同伴输出压力的市场。美国接收份额 = 国际压力最终传导至标普500的比例——这是传导读数，非因果占比。数据来源：ETF日度收益。
Above 80: stress in any market can quickly reach others. Below 60: markets absorb their own shocks.超过80：任意市场的压力可快速蔓延。低于60：市场能消化自身冲击。
Top 3 shock senders前三大冲击输出方
#1🇦🇺Australia澳大利亚
131 pts
#2🇨🇭Switzerland瑞士
126 pts
#3🇿🇦South Africa南非
110 pts
71.5%
US markets partially exposed to global moves美国市场对全球走势有一定敞口?US receiving share (precise: 71.5%): what fraction of global shock variance is absorbed by the US index. Source: 150-day rolling VAR, 10-step horizon. This is a transmission read — not a statement that X% of US price moves are caused by overseas markets.美国接收份额（精确值：71.5%）：全球冲击方差中有多大比例被美国指数吸收。数据来源：150日滚动VAR，10步预测。这是传导读数——并非X%的美国价格走势由海外市场引起。
5 US transmission channels5个美国传导渠道
US credit spreads美国信用利差Bank shares银行股Bond-market volatility债市波动Money-market plumbing货币市场管道Dollar safety bid美元避险需求
Data as of 2026-07-16数据截至 2026-07-16.
Central bank desk央行动态台?Rates from public data. Stance = realized rate changes over the trailing 3 months — not forward guidance or market pricing. Balance sheet: available for Fed, ECB, and BoJ only (public weekly data); others are honest nulls. Next meeting dates are calendar-only. Descriptive only — no policy-intent projection.利率来自公开数据。立场 = 过去3个月已实现的利率变动——非前瞻指引或市场定价。资产负债表：仅限美联储、欧央行和日本央行（公开周度数据）；其他为诚实缺失。下次会议日期仅为日历。仅描述，不预测政策意图。
What the major central banks are actually doing主要央行的实际政策动向
Bank央行
Rate利率
Stance立场
Last move近期动向
Balance sheet资产负债表
Next meeting下次会议
🇺🇸 Federal Reserve (FOMC)美联储（FOMC）
3.63%
Holding按兵不动
↓
2026-5
Adding扩表
07-29 · 12d
🇪🇺 European Central Bank欧洲央行
2.25%
Raising加息
↑
2026-6
Draining缩表
07-23 · 6d
🇯🇵 Bank of Japan日本银行
0.73%
Cutting降息
↑
2026-1
Draining缩表
07-31 · 14d
🇬🇧 Bank of England英格兰银行
3.71%
Cutting降息
↓
2026-1
—
07-30 · 13d
🇨🇭 Swiss National Bank瑞士国家银行
-0.04%
Raising加息
↑
2025-11
—
09-17 · 62d
🇨🇦 Bank of Canada加拿大央行
2.29%
Raising加息
↑
2026-5
—
09-02 · 47d
🇦🇺 Reserve Bank of Australia澳大利亚储备银行
4.43%
Raising加息
↑
2026-5
—
08-11 · 25d
Balance-sheet data available for Fed, ECB, and BoJ only — others are honest nulls. Rate data as of 2026-07-15资产负债表数据仅限美联储、欧央行和日本央行——其余为实际缺失。利率数据截至2026-07-15
Credit & bond stress信用与债券压力?Credit spreads = the extra yield emerging-market bonds pay above comparable Treasuries, in percentage points. Velocity arrow = direction of 20-day move (↑ widening = more stress, ↓ tightening = easing). EM high-yield source: BAML EM High Yield index. Regional spreads: BAML regional subindices. Inversion board: 10yr minus 3-month yield for 6 major curves. EM spread history collected since Jul 2023 (data-vendor cap) — long-run comparisons build up over time.信用利差 = 新兴市场债券相对同期美债的超额收益率（百分点）。速度箭头 = 20日走势方向（↑走阔 = 压力上升，↓收窄 = 压力减轻）。新兴市场高收益来源：美银美林新兴市场高收益指数。地区利差：美银美林地区子指数。倒挂看板：6个主要收益率曲线的10年减3月期利差。新兴市场利差数据自2023年7月起收集（数据供应商限制）——长期比较随时间积累。
Are lenders charging more for risk?贷款方是否在为风险索取更高溢价？
EM high-yield spreads新兴市场高收益利差
3.09%
↑
Widening (20d)走阔（20日）
Asia credit spreads亚洲信用利差
0.84%
↑
Widening (20d)走阔（20日）
LatAm credit spreads拉美信用利差
2.27%
↑
Widening slowly (20d)缓慢走阔（20日）
EMEA credit spreads欧非中东信用利差
1.45%
↑
Widening (20d)走阔（20日）
0 / 6
Yield curves inverted收益率曲线倒挂 All 6 tracked curves positively sloped — no recession signal from bond markets所有6条跟踪曲线均正斜率——债市无衰退信号
EM bonds vs US Treasuries — last 120 days新兴市场债 vs 美债——过去120天
EM spread history collected since Jul 2023 (data-vendor cap) — long-term comparisons build up over time.新兴市场利差数据自2023年7月起收集（数据供应商限制）——长期比较数据将随时间积累。Spread data as of 2026-07-14利差数据截至2026-07-14.
What's driving the dollar?美元走势的驱动因素?Dollar read updates nightly from the forex desk. The regime is determined by a 120-day rolling decomposition comparing rate-differential vs risk-off vs residual drivers. When data is fresh, this panel shows the dominant regime and a one-sentence explanation.美元读数每晚从外汇台更新。制度由120日滚动分解确定，比较利差、避险与残差驱动因素。数据刷新后，本面板显示主导制度及一句话说明。
Watch — don't chase dollar strength until the read is fresh等待最新读数后再追美元强势
Not enough fresh data — the dollar read updates after tonight's build.数据暂不足——美元读数将在今晚构建后更新。
Dollar regime read not yet available — updates nightly.美元制度读数暂不可用——每晚更新。
Fragility map脆弱性地图?Flags countries where structural vulnerabilities coincide: debt-to-GDP above 70% and rising, fiscal deficit below −5% of GDP, or current account deficit below −3% of GDP. BIS credit gap where available. Source: IMF WEO 2025. Annual data — updates with IMF WEO releases. Berg & Pattillo (1999) criterion adapted. Presence of a flag = vulnerabilities exist, not that a crisis is imminent; most historically flagged countries did not experience a crisis.标记存在结构性脆弱因素的国家：债务/GDP超过70%且上升、财政赤字低于GDP的−5%，或经常账户赤字低于GDP的−3%。BIS信用缺口（可用时）。来源：IMF WEO 2025。年度数据——随IMF WEO发布更新。改编自Berg & Pattillo（1999）标准。有标记 = 脆弱性存在，不代表危机即将发生；历史上大多数预警未演变为危机。
Slow-moving structural vulnerabilities — not a timing signal缓慢变化的结构性脆弱因素——非择时信号
🇬🇧
United Kingdom英国
3 of 4 structural warnings concurrent4项结构性预警中3项并发
Debt 102% of GDP & rising债务占GDP 102% 且上升Current account -3.1% of GDP经常账户 -3.1% GDPFiscal balance -5.4% of GDP财政余额 -5.4% GDP
🇺🇸
United States美国
3 of 4 structural warnings concurrent4项结构性预警中3项并发
Debt 124% of GDP & rising债务占GDP 124% 且上升Current account -3.6% of GDP经常账户 -3.6% GDPFiscal balance -6.8% of GDP财政余额 -6.8% GDP
Slow-moving fundamentals — flags fragility, not timing; most historical warnings did not become crises.缓慢变化的基本面指标——揭示脆弱性，非择时信号；历史上大多数预警并未演变为危机。?Berg & Pattillo (1999) criterion adapted: debt >70% GDP and rising, fiscal balance <−5%, current account <−3%. Source: IMF WEO 2025. BIS credit gap where available. Annual data — updates with IMF WEO releases.Berg & Pattillo（1999）改编标准：债务>70% GDP且上升，财政余额<−5%，经常账户<−3%。来源：IMF WEO 2025。BIS信用缺口（可用时）。年度数据——随IMF WEO发布更新。Data as of IMF WEO 2025 (where available)数据来源：IMF WEO 2025（可用时）
Where crash pressure is flowing now冲击压力的实时流向?How much inbound pressure each market is absorbing from markets that are actually falling — measured from economic linkages and current crash depth. Low / Building / High reflects the severity relative to the past two years. Top sources show which markets are driving the pressure. Source: trade, financial and supply-chain linkages blended with recent price action. Display only — not a signal to trade.每个市场正在吸收多少来自真实下跌市场的输入压力——由经济联系与当前跌幅共同衡量。低/升温/高反映过去两年的相对严重程度。压力来源显示哪些市场是主要驱动力。数据来源：贸易、金融与供应链联系，结合近期价格走势。仅作展示，非交易信号。
Measured from market connections and who is actually falling由市场关联与实际下跌方共同衡量
Taiwan台湾Building升温
South Korea (24%)韩国 (24%)Japan (18%)日本 (18%)China (9%)中国 (9%)
Japan日本Building升温
South Korea (21%)韩国 (21%)China (8%)中国 (8%)Taiwan (14%)台湾 (14%)exporting risk风险输出方
Australia澳大利亚Building升温
China (14%)中国 (14%)Japan (16%)日本 (16%)South Korea (11%)韩国 (11%)
Hong Kong香港Building升温
China (15%)中国 (15%)Japan (12%)日本 (12%)South Korea (9%)韩国 (9%)
United States美国Building升温
China (12%)中国 (12%)South Korea (8%)韩国 (8%)Japan (11%)日本 (11%)
United Kingdom英国Low低
Japan (15%)日本 (15%)South Korea (10%)韩国 (10%)China (7%)中国 (7%)
Euro area欧元区Low低
South Korea (11%)韩国 (11%)Japan (13%)日本 (13%)China (6%)中国 (6%)
Canada加拿大Low低
China (12%)中国 (12%)South Korea (8%)韩国 (8%)Japan (10%)日本 (10%)
South Korea韩国Low低
Japan (20%)日本 (20%)China (8%)中国 (8%)Taiwan (18%)台湾 (18%)exporting risk风险输出方
India印度Low低
China (12%)中国 (12%)South Korea (7%)韩国 (7%)Japan (9%)日本 (9%)
China中国Low低
Japan (10%)日本 (10%)South Korea (6%)韩国 (6%)Taiwan (9%)台湾 (9%)exporting risk风险输出方
Regime map — growth × inflation周期图 — 增长 × 通胀?Places each economy on the growth/inflation clock. Right side = better growth; top = more inflation pressure.把每个经济体放在增长/通胀时钟上。右侧增长更好；上方通胀压力更高。
↖ Stagflation滞胀
Reflation再通胀 ↗
↙ Growth-scare增长恐慌
Goldilocks金发女孩 ↘
🇯🇵
JP
🇰🇷
KR
🇹🇼
TW
🇮🇳
IN
🇦🇺
AU
🇬🇧
GB
🇪🇺
EZ
Snapshot only, not a forecast.仅快照，非预测。
Cross-market correlation跨市场相关性?Shows whether markets are moving together. Lower correlation means better diversification.显示各市场是否同涨同跌。相关性越低，分散越好。
avg平均0.52 · 252d
🇯🇵 JP
🇰🇷 KR
🇹🇼 TW
🇮🇳 IN
🇦🇺 AU
🇬🇧 GB
🇪🇺 EZ
🇺🇸 US
🇯🇵 JP
1
0.82
0.85
0.38
0.70
0.36
0.48
0.52
🇰🇷 KR
0.82
1
0.83
0.33
0.63
0.28
0.43
0.48
🇹🇼 TW
0.85
0.83
1
0.24
0.67
0.31
0.44
0.45
🇮🇳 IN
0.38
0.33
0.24
1
0.28
0.31
0.45
0.40
🇦🇺 AU
0.70
0.63
0.67
0.28
1
0.66
0.70
0.54
🇬🇧 GB
0.36
0.28
0.31
0.31
0.66
1
0.91
0.49
🇪🇺 EZ
0.48
0.43
0.44
0.45
0.70
0.91
1
0.67
🇺🇸 US
0.52
0.48
0.45
0.40
0.54
0.49
0.67
1
Moderately correlated — some diversification on offer中度相关 — 有一定分散空间 · Red = more correlated; green = more diversifying. Display-only.红 = 相关更高；绿 = 更能分散。仅展示。