🏛️ PBoC & Policy Watch央行与政策观察
PBoC rate corridor · liquidity · FX · NBS prints · State-Council/NDRC policy · context only · as of央行利率走廊 · 流动性 · 外汇 · 统计局数据 · 国务院/发改委政策 · 仅供参考 · 截至 2026-06-22
Intel substrate情报底稿: 2026-06-20 (27d ago日前)
| Sector行业 | Stance立场 | Policy read政策解读 |
|---|---|---|
| Domestic semis / 信创国产半导体／信创 cn_semis |
Supportive支持 | National self-reliance mandate + big-fund capital; foreign-chip substitution in gov/SOE by 2027.国家自主可控指令＋大基金资本；2027年前政府/国企国产替代。 |
| AI computeAI算力 cn_ai_compute |
Supportive支持 | 'East-data-West-compute' national grid; domestic GPU (Ascend/Cambricon) push.『东数西算』国家算力网；国产GPU（昇腾/寒武纪）推进。 |
| EV & battery新能源车与电池 cn_battery |
Supportive支持 | Purchase-tax exemption extended to 2027 + trade-in subsidies; export expansion.购置税减免延至2027＋以旧换新补贴；出口扩张。 |
| Solar / wind / storage光储风 cn_solar |
Neutral中性 | Dual-carbon tailwind but acute overcapacity / price-war; policy now curbing irrational expansion.双碳顺风但产能过剩与价格战严重；政策转向遏制非理性扩张。 |
| Defense & military国防军工 cn_defense |
Supportive支持 | Defense budget +7.2% (above nominal GDP); self-reliance priority.国防预算+7.2%（高于名义GDP）；自主可控优先。 |
| SOE reform / 中特估国企改革／中特估 cn_soe_value |
Supportive支持 | CSRC market-cap-management directive: raise ROE, dividends, buybacks.证监会市值管理指引：提升ROE、分红、回购。 |
| Consumption / 以旧换新消费／以旧换新 cn_appliances · cn_autos · cn_food_bev |
Supportive支持 | ¥300B ultra-long bonds fund appliance/car/electronics trade-in; 'expand domestic demand' priority.3000亿超长期国债支持家电/汽车/电子以旧换新；扩内需优先。 |
| Property房地产 cn_property |
Supportive支持 | Mortgage-rate + down-payment cuts, purchase-restriction relaxation, urban-village renovation — stabilize, not re-inflate.降房贷利率与首付、放松限购、城中村改造——稳定而非再膨胀。 |
| Innovative pharma创新药 cn_pharma_cxo |
Supportive支持 | NMPA accelerated review + national biotech fund; oncology/biosimilar focus.药监局加速审评＋国家生物科技基金；肿瘤/生物类似药聚焦。 |
| Low-altitude economy低空经济 | Supportive支持 | CAAC + NDRC action plan 2024-2030; eVTOL / drone-logistics corridors; ¥1T-by-2030 goal.民航局＋发改委2024-2030行动计划；eVTOL／无人机物流走廊；2030年万亿目标。 |
| Platform / internet平台经济／互联网 | Neutral中性 | Crackdown normalized to predictable regulation; supported as an employment + AI engine.整顿转为可预期的常态监管；作为就业与AI引擎获支持。 |
| After-school education校外教培 | Restrictive限制 | 双减 regime intact; for-profit K-9 tutoring still curtailed.双减政策延续；营利性义务教育阶段培训仍受限。 |
| Property speculation房地产投机 | Restrictive限制 | 'Houses are for living, not speculation' frame persists alongside the stabilization push.『房住不炒』基调与稳楼市并存。 |
Dated, falsifiable PBoC / fiscal calls — accountability, not a forecast service.有日期、可证伪的央行／财政判断——问责，而非预测服务。
| Prediction预测 | Check by核查日 | Status状态 |
|---|---|---|
| PBoC cuts RRR by ≥25bp by 2026-09-30.央行在2026-09-30前降准≥25个基点。 | 2026-09-30 | Open未结 |
| 1Y LPR cut ≥10bp by 2026-12-31.1年期LPR在2026-12-31前下调≥10个基点。 | 2026-12-31 | Open未结 |
| Additional consumption trade-in / demand-side fiscal support announced in H2 2026.2026下半年出台追加的消费以旧换新／需求侧财政支持。 | 2026-12-31 | Open未结 |
Context only — not a signal, score or trade. PBoC corridor + NBS prints are point-in-time and may be revised; the sector matrix, NPC targets and prediction ledger are a hand-curated, dated intel substrate (data/china_policy/intel.json), not a model output.仅作背景，非信号、评分或交易。央行利率走廊与统计局数据为特定时点快照，可能修订；行业矩阵、两会目标与预测台账为人工整理、有日期的情报底稿（data/china_policy/intel.json），并非模型输出。