Today's read · Bitcoin今日判断 · 比特币
Big-picture backdrop大背景
-18
Bearish偏空Bullish偏多
RISK-OFF偏空
5 signals up项看多 · 7 down项看空 (of(共 17 tracked)维)
$63,474 -1.58% 24h24小时 Start trimming开始减仓 🔥 Overheated · too many traders long过热 · 多头持仓拥挤 CAUTION谨慎
Strategic regime reads risk off. Supported by Miner economics, Coinbase premium. Held back by BFI fundamentals, Momentum. Direction over days stays a coin-flip — the drawdown card leads tactically.战略格局:支撑:矿工经济、Coinbase 溢价。拖累:BFI 基本面、动量。数日方向仍接近抛硬币 — 战术上以回撤卡片为准。
Supporting a buy / hold支持买入/持有
Miner economics矿工经济 · Capitulation (bottoming)投降(筑底)
Coinbase premiumCoinbase 溢价 · Healthy demand健康需求
Conditional beta条件贝塔 · Limited downside下行受限
Leverage stress杠杆压力 · Low
Urging caution提示谨慎
BFI fundamentalsBFI 基本面 · Negative负向
Momentum动量 · Bearish看空
Stablecoin tide稳定币潮汐 · Contracting收缩
CME positioningCME 持仓 · Crowded long多头拥挤
Risk level (0–100)风险程度(0–100)
24
High Risk高风险
Expected dip (next 7 days)预期回撤(未来 7 天)
-3.0%
worst极端 -14.2%
Model allocation模型仓位
0%
timing model择时模型
Trend by timeframe各周期趋势
Unconfirmed turn within a bearish bigger picture偏空大格局内的未确认转向
D 3D W 2W M · short ↑ · mid ↓ · long
Cycle stage周期阶段
Defensive防御 Fragile (watch)脆弱(观望) Recovery复苏 Expansion扩张
Vol · Flow波动 · 流量
Vol波动: Low · Upside上行 Flow流量: Sweet spot理想区间
🧭 Macro backdrop · advanced宏观背景 · 进阶 Five market dimensions · context only, does not drive position size五个市场维度 · 仅供参考,不决定仓位
42
NEUTRAL中性
0 = very unfavourable backdrop · 100 = very favourable backdrop0 = 背景很不利 · 100 = 背景非常有利
Context only — does not set position size仅供参考 — 不决定仓位大小
mode模式: +flow+flow
Reference level (not what to hold):参考水位(非实际持仓): 32% · 9 factors active项有效
What feeds the score分数构成
T1 LiquidityLiquidity +0
T2 Rates / DollarRates / Dollar -6
T3 Curve / FedCurve / Fed -2
T4 Equity / VIXEquity / VIX +0
T5 Crypto-nativeCrypto-native +2
Net-liquidity impulseNet-liquidity impulse aprioriapriori +0 Global M2 YoY + slopeGlobal M2 YoY + slope aprioriapriori -2 Real 10Y yieldReal 10Y yield aprioriapriori +0 US dollar (DXY)US dollar (DXY) aprioriapriori -1 Yield-curve regimeYield-curve regime aprioriapriori +0 Fed pathFed path aprioriapriori +0 Equity / VIX regimeEquity / VIX regime aprioriapriori Spot-ETF net flowsSpot-ETF net flows contextcontext +0 Stablecoin supply ΔStablecoin supply Δ aprioriapriori +0 Trend vs 200D/200WTrend vs 200D/200W aprioriapriori +1 On-chain valuationOn-chain valuation aprioriapriori
Extreme signal cluster极端信号集群
No extreme cluster active无极端集群触发 · 3/8 extreme conditions firing项极端条件触发?
Stay away回避3/8
Net liquidity contracting / QTNet liquidity contracting / QT
Real 10Y high & risingReal 10Y high & rising
Dollar strong & risingDollar strong & rising
Price below a down-sloping 200DPrice below a down-sloping 200D
ETF sustained outflowETF sustained outflow
Curve bear-flat or Fed higher-for-longerCurve bear-flat or Fed higher-for-longer
On-chain stretched & rolling overOn-chain stretched & rolling over
VIX spike + HY-OAS widening (accelerant)VIX spike + HY-OAS widening (accelerant) (shared共享)
Double down加倍0/8 · Required condition:前提条件:not met未满足
Net liquidity expanding & accelerating (prerequisite)Net liquidity expanding & accelerating (prerequisite)
Real yields falling / negativeReal yields falling / negative
Dollar weak / fallingDollar weak / falling
Reclaiming the 200D from below, MA turning upReclaiming the 200D from below, MA turning up
ETF flipping to sustained inflowETF flipping to sustained inflow
Fed pivot / bull-steepening curveFed pivot / bull-steepening curve
On-chain depressed (panel-confirmed cheap)On-chain depressed (panel-confirmed cheap)
Post-capitulation flushPost-capitulation flush
On-chain reads:链上读数: mixed混合 ?
🌊 Net-liquidity净流动性: Expanding (accelerating)扩张(加速) Leverage杠杆: Low
Fixed weights.固定权重。 ?

BTC Allocation · Optimal strategyBTC 仓位 · 最优策略

Staying out · timing model says avoid BTC for now回避中 · 择时模型建议暂时回避 BTC
Our timing model says avoid BTC until around择时模型建议在 2026-10-01. Allocation is set to 0%. 前回避 BTC,仓位设为 0%。
100% Cash现金
Mode:模式: Short-term (Tactical)短期(战术) · Leading now:当前领涨: ETHETH
Upcoming event:即将到来: FOMC美联储 in还有 12 days (Jul 29)
Full allocation strategy — BTC · ETH · alts · cash完整仓位策略 — BTC · ETH · 山寨 · 现金

What BTC did next · on days like today类似今日的历史日 · BTC 后续走势

matched to匹配 Distribution days派发日
History, not a forecast.是历史,不是预测。
rare罕见 typical常见 midpoint中间值 ?
What happened next后续走势 Most likely result最可能结果 Chance of being higher收高概率
7d
-0.2% -5…+6%
49% vs history对比历史 54%
30d
-2.7% -15…+10%
43% vs history对比历史 56%
90d
-8.6% -30…+22%
40% vs history对比历史 58%
−105%0+105%
Small gaps between "chance of being higher" and the history baseline mean no direction edge — don't read more into them.若"收高概率"与历史基准差距小,表示无方向优势,不要过度解读。 ?
Signal Board · every axis at a glance信号面板 · 一览全维度

Trend & Momentum趋势与动量

Momentum动量 Directional方向信号 Bearish看空
Structure结构 Directional方向信号 Broken走坏
Impulse脉冲 Directional方向信号 Neutral中性

Risk & Volatility风险与波动

Risk Index风险指数 Proven已证实 Neutral中性
Leverage stress杠杆压力 At extremes极值有效 Low
Conditional beta条件贝塔 Proven已证实 Limited downside下行受限
Attention (Wikipedia)关注度 New早期数据 Apathy (bottoming)冷清(筑底)

Valuation & Cycle估值与周期

Valuation估值 At extremes极值有效 Neutral中性
Capitulation/euphoria投降/亢奋 At extremes极值有效 Neutral中性
Cycle phase周期相位 Directional方向信号 Markdown下行
Miner economics矿工经济 New早期数据 Capitulation (bottoming)投降(筑底)

Demand & Flows需求与资金流

BFI fundamentalsBFI 基本面 Directional方向信号 Negative负向
Stablecoin tide稳定币潮汐 Directional方向信号 Contracting收缩
Coinbase premiumCoinbase 溢价 At extremes极值有效 Healthy demand健康需求
Holder spread (STH/LTH)持有者价差 New早期数据 Distribution派发

Macro & Positioning宏观与持仓

Macro liquidity宏观流动性 Proven已证实 Neutral中性
CME positioningCME 持仓 At extremes极值有效 Crowded long多头拥挤
Track record: Proven · Suggestive · Too early to tell历史记录:已证实 · 仅参考 · 历史尚短

Impulse Radar · forward pressure脉冲雷达 · 前瞻压力

Early warning tracker — shows whether pressure is building or fading. Watch; don't act on background readings alone.早期预警追踪 — 显示压力是否正在积累或消退。观察即可,仅凭背景读数不宜行动。
Down下行-impulse脉冲 Building蓄势
Pressure压力 15/100 · no action threshold crossed未触发行动级别
US spot selling (Coinbase premium)US spot selling (Coinbase premium) (Background signal背景信号) today今日?
Up上行-impulse脉冲 Calm平静
Pressure压力 0/100 · no action threshold crossed未触发行动级别
no live legs无活跃因子
🔋 Fuel燃料?: normal正常
🌊 Intraday buy–sell pressure日内买卖压力: accumulationaccumulation · +165M · context背景
Read this as early pressure, not a top or bottom call.把它当作早期压力读数,不是顶部或底部预言。
? 3 signal(s) lost follow-through个信号未能持续
🧠 AI Daily Brief · Bitcoin & cross-asset synthesisAI 每日简报 · 比特币与跨资产综合 AI summary of today's Bitcoin signals — research context only, not a trade call.AI 总结今日比特币信号 — 仅供研究参考,不是交易建议。
Next 3–7 days · drawdown risk未来 3–7 天 · 回撤风险
Mid term · 7-day outlook中期 · 7 天展望 ?
CALM · next 7 days平静 · 未来 7 天
Typical dip:常见回撤: -3.0% · Worst case:极端情形: -14.2% · In quiet markets:平静市场下: -3.0% / -14.2%
-14.2%-3.0%now当前+3.2%
Direction unclear方向不明
47% up偏多 / 53% down偏空?
“Worst-case” is the 1-in-20 (5%) dip, “typical” is the average — from 2,063 similar windows, and it holds in both halves of history. Worst-case -14.2% (calm -14.2%) · typical -3.0% (calm -3.0%), next 7 days.“极端”为二十中取一(5%)的回撤,“常见”为平均值 — 取自 2,063 个相似窗口,且在历史两半段均成立。极端 -14.2%(平静 -14.2%)· 常见 -3.0%(平静 -3.0%),未来 7 天。
Sits under the overall从属于整体 CAUTION谨慎 view — think of this as the near-term detail判断 — 视为近期细节
Short term · 3-day outlook短期 · 3 天展望 ?
CALM · next 3 days平静 · 未来 3 天
Typical dip:常见回撤: -1.2% · Worst case:极端情形: -8.4% · In quiet markets:平静市场下: -1.2% / -8.4%
-8.4%-1.2%now当前+1.4%
Direction unclear方向不明
48% up偏多 / 52% down偏空?
“Worst-case” is the 1-in-20 (5%) dip, “typical” is the average — from 2,065 similar windows, and it holds in both halves of history. Worst-case -8.4% (calm -8.4%) · typical -1.2% (calm -1.2%), next 3 days.“极端”为二十中取一(5%)的回撤,“常见”为平均值 — 取自 2,065 个相似窗口,且在历史两半段均成立。极端 -8.4%(平静 -8.4%)· 常见 -1.2%(平静 -1.2%),未来 3 天。
Sits under the overall从属于整体 CAUTION谨慎 view — think of this as the near-term detail判断 — 视为近期细节
If it resolves down若向下
Target目标$61,852 → $57,718
Invalidation失效位$65,127
If it resolves up若向上
Target目标$65,096 → $66,177
Invalidation失效位$61,821
Levels to watch, not a direction call.关注的价位,而非方向判断。?
Risk Index vs Strategy · backtested风险指数 vs 策略 · 已回测

BTC price, Risk Index & allocationBTC 价格、风险指数与仓位 · Optimal variant· 最优变体

Loading interactive chart…加载交互图表…
BTC price (log)BTC 价格(对数) Strategy equity策略净值 buy / add买入 / 加仓 sell / trim卖出 / 减仓 lower panes:下方面板: Risk level (blue = low risk / red = elevated risk)风险水平(蓝 = 低风险 / 红 = 偏高风险) · allocation %仓位 %
Yearly return年化收益
71%
Buy-and-hold买入持有 52%
Return per unit of risk风险调整后收益
1.6
Buy-and-hold买入持有 0.96
Worst peak-to-trough drop最大回撤
-32%
Buy-and-hold买入持有 -84%
Time fully invested满仓时间占比
68%
4.15× buy-and-hold买入持有
Long-only, acts the day after each signal — every version beat buy-and-hold on risk-adjusted return with smaller drops.仅做多,信号次日生效 — 每个版本的风险调整后收益均优于买入持有,回撤更小。
Cycle Time Machine · scrub 10+ years of point-in-time history周期时光机 · 回溯十余年实时历史
Accumulation吸筹 Markup拉升 Recovery修复 Markdown派发下行
cycle stage周期阶段 Cycle phase周期相位 ladder阶梯 momentum动量 valuation估值 stance立场 model alloc模型仓位
Risk Index (0–100)风险指数(0–100)
Drag to replay what the dashboard showed on that day. We don't use future data.拖动可回放当日看板读数。我们不使用未来数据。
Technicals · daily → monthly技术指标 · 日线 → 月线

Where Bitcoin is in its short cycle (~8 weeks)比特币当前所处短周期位置(约 8 周) · BEARISHBEARISH

Daily cycle state日线周期状态NEARING A LOWNEARING A LOW · todaytoday
Short-term (daily): nearing a low. Bigger picture (counter-trend): bearish.短期(日线):接近低点。大局(逆势):看空。
A normal mid-cycle dip below the 10-day average — the real cycle low isn't due for ~5+ trading days. Wait for support to hold, or for the next low to set up.这是跌破 10 日均线的正常周期中段回调——真正的周期低点要到约 5+ 个交易日后才会到来。等待支撑站稳,或等下一个低点构筑成形。
Bitcoin short cycle: typically 56–70 days.比特币短周期:通常 56–70 天。?

Technicals across timeframes跨周期技术指标

TF周期RSIStochRSIMACDTrend趋势
Daily日线 50.0 70.0 Pos多头
3-Day3日 43.0 95.0 Up转多
Weekly周线 38.0 34.0 Neg空头
Biweekly双周 38.0 24.0 Neg空头
Monthly月线 44.0 7.0 Up转多
RSI/StochRSI mark overbought and oversold. Trend dot = MACD direction for that timeframe.RSI/StochRSI 标记超买超卖。趋势圆点 = 该周期 MACD 方向。
Core signals · momentum, structure, impulse, fundamentals核心信号 · 动量·结构·脉冲·基本面

Momentum动量 -0.37

Above +0.5 = momentum is with us · Below −0.5 = momentum is against us · Now:高于 +0.5 = 动量顺势 · 低于 −0.5 = 动量逆势 · 当前: bear看空

Structure Shift结构转变 -0.28

Above +0.5 = structure is supportive · Below −0.5 = structure is broken · Now:高于 +0.5 = 结构支撑 · 低于 −0.5 = 结构走坏 · 当前: neutral中性

Impulse脉冲 · NEUTRAL中性 0.01

Positive participation (14d)正向占比(14 天)100.0%
Trend clarity趋势清晰度0.02 (0 = choppy, 1 = clear trend)(0 = 震荡,1 = 单边趋势)
Momentum's acceleration, chop-filtered — it flags when a move starts or burns out.动量的加速度,经震荡过滤 — 捕捉走势启动或衰竭的时机。

Bitcoin Fundamental Index (BFI) — Network growth × Liquidity比特币基本面指数(BFI)— 网络增长 × 流动性

Above 60 = supportive environment · Below 40 = challenging environment · Now:高于 60 = 有利环境 · 低于 40 = 不利环境 · 当前: 28 (negative负向)
Network Growth网络增长40
Liquidity流动性18
BFIBFI28
Never turned negative through the 2025 stress — a long-term anchor.2025 年压力期间从未转负 — 一个长期锚点。
Cycle & valuation周期与估值

Valuation anchors估值锚点 · FairFair

Market vs cost base (MVRV-Z)市价对比成本(MVRV-Z)0.37 ?
Profit in market (NUPL)市场整体盈亏状态(NUPL)0.18
Price vs 200-day average价格对比 200 日均线0.87
Deep value supports adding; overheated supports trimming. Reserve Risk low = accumulation, high = top risk.深度低估支持加仓;过热支持减仓。储备风险低 = 累积,高 = 顶部风险。

Miner cycle & cost basis矿工周期与成本基准

Miner income signal (Hash Ribbons)矿工收入信号(哈希丝带)CapitulationCapitulation
Miner revenue ratio (Puell)矿工收入比率(Puell)0.71
Price vs recent buyers' average cost价格对比近期买入者成本-6.9%
Miner income signals flag stress early. Recent buyer cost is the key support / resistance level.矿工收入信号能早期标记压力。近期买入者成本是关键支撑/阻力位。

Cycle clock周期时钟 · MARKDOWN下跌

Halving clock减半时钟
Cycle progress (since halving)周期进度(自减半起)56.0% (818.0d)
Phase timer相位计时
Phase progress相位进度78.0%
Next likely turning point下一个可能的价格转折点 (bottom底部)2026-10-05 (80d away天后)
Post-halving phases are historically bullish — useful context, not a trigger.减半后历史上偏多 — 仅供参考,不触发操作。?

Cycle Thesis Monitor周期论点监测 · INTACT成立 ?

Drawdown from cycle peak较周期顶部回撤 (2025-10-06)-49% vs对比 -80% prior-bear avg历史熊市均值
Projected bottom window预测底部窗口2026-10-01 → 2026-12-10
Drawdown -49% so far vs ~-80% prior-bear avg (bear still developing).目前回撤 -49%,历史熊市均值约 -80%(熊市仍在发展中)。
Pre-bottom: ~76d until the projected window opens (Oct 2026). Scale in, don't lump in.底部前:距预测窗口开启约 76 天(2026-10)。分批建仓,勿一次性。
1064/364 down-leg on track.1064/364 下跌腿按节奏。
Halving and midterm clocks aligned this cycle (halving-anchored bottom ~Sep 2026, midterm Nov 2026).本轮减半与中期周期一致(减半锚定底部约 2026-09,中期 2026-11)。

CME positioning & correlationCME 持仓与相关性 · CROWDED LONG多头拥挤

Large-traders net position (CME)大型交易商净持仓(CME)2.81 ?
BTC↔S&P 500 correlation (90d)BTC↔标普 500 相关性(90 天)0.33 MixedMixed
BTC↔Gold correlation (90d)BTC↔黄金 相关性(90 天)0.37
When big traders are very long, it often marks a top. BTC also tends to do better when it's moving independently of stocks.当大型交易商大幅净多时,往往接近高点。BTC 与股市脱钩时通常表现更好。?
Options & leverage · advanced期权与杠杆 · 进阶 volatility, skew, funding, open interest波动率、偏斜、资金费率、持仓

Implied volatility隐含波动率

Calm平静
Options are pricing a ±期权定价的未来 30 天波幅约为 ±10.3% move over 30 days波幅(30 天) ($56,926 – $70,021)
Price tends to pin here (low volatility likely)价格倾向于在此黏滞(低波动可能) · key level关键价位: $61,569
?
Options tell you how big moves might be, not which way.期权反映波幅大小,不预测方向。

Skew & positioning (snapshot)偏斜与持仓(快照)

25Δ risk reversal25Δ 风险逆转-5.1 (<0 = downside bid)(<0 = 下行需求)
Put/Call OI ratio看跌/看涨 持仓比0.51
Max pain最大痛点$64,000
Futures basis (annualized)期货基差(年化)+4.0% (>15 froth, <0 stress)(>15 过热,<0 承压)
Skew term (7d−90d)偏斜期限(7天−90天)-0.064 (>0 = acute near-term fear)(>0 = 近端急性恐慌)
IV term structureIV 期限结构Contango (calm)正向(平静) (+3.6pt 90d−30d)
Options traders are paying up for downside protection — puts cost more than calls.期权交易者正在为下行保护支付溢价 — 看跌期权比看涨期权更贵。 ?

Leverage state杠杆状态

Leverage stress杠杆压力33.0/100
Aggregate open interest总持仓量?$27.8B
Funding rate (annualized)资金费率(年化)?+4.9%
Retail long/short ratio (OKX accounts)散户多空比(OKX 账户数)?1.24
OKX aggressive buy shareOKX 主动买盘占比?52%
CME futures basis (carry)CME 期货基差(套利)?+0.45% flat持平
Open interest vs price divergence (14d)持仓量 vs 价格背离(14 天)-1.5%
Consolidated futures carry综合期货套利?Neutral中性
Crowding makes the tape fragile. When traders are very short, it can mark a bottom.拥挤使行情脆弱。交易者高度做空时,往往接近底部。?
The backdrop · liquidity & breadth大背景 · 流动性与广度

Macro backdrop宏观背景 · NEUTRAL中性 (+0.05)

Fed net money supplyFed 净流动性?
Global M2 growth (US+China)全球 M2 增速(美+中)7.0% YoY (ExpandingExpanding)
Stablecoin supply (crypto-native liquidity)稳定币供应(加密原生流动性)?ContractingContracting
Stablecoin peg health (USDT/USDC/DAI)稳定币锚定健康(USDT/USDC/DAI)?Stable稳定
10y real yield10 年期实际收益率2.33%
Junk bond stress (credit spread)垃圾债利差2.72%
Fear index / Dollar (VIX / DXY)恐慌指数 / 美元指数16.5 / 100.7
BTC follows the change in liquidity — a months-out tide, not a trigger.BTC 跟随流动性变化 — 数月维度的潮汐,而非触发器。?

Market breadth市场广度 · Mixed混合 (36/100)

How spread the rally is涨势广度36/100 (0 = Bitcoin only · 100 = broad market)(0 = 仅比特币 · 100 = 普涨)
ETH/BTC (alt-cycle core)ETH/BTC(山寨周期核心)0.0291 (+5.5% 8w) · 23%ile
SOL/ETH (high-beta appetite)SOL/ETH(高贝塔偏好) NEW新增0.0406 · flat走平 · 9%ile
BTC dominanceBTC 占比56.2% · ETH 10.0%
Shows how far out the risk curve money is going. Confirms the mood; doesn't lead it.显示资金在风险曲线上走多远。确认市场情绪,并非领先指标。
On-chain & ETF demand链上与 ETF 需求

Coinbase PremiumCoinbase 溢价 · DEEP DISCOUNT深度折价 Proven record实测记录

US buyer premium (7-day average)美国买家溢价(7 日均值)?-0.62%
Smart-money divergence聪明钱背离US selling strength美国逢高卖出
Shows whether US buyers are paying a premium. Extreme readings matter most; divergence flags when price and US demand disagree.显示美国买家是否愿意付溢价。极端读数最重要;背离提示价格与美国需求不一致。

Dry powder & miners (context)场外资金与矿工(背景)

Stablecoin buying potential (SSR)稳定币购买力(SSR)1.05 (high = more potential buying power)(高 = 潜在买盘更强)
Miner selling pressure (MPI)矿工出售压力(MPI)0.14
Context only. These free versions are useful color, not trade signals.仅作背景。免费版本可作参考,不是交易信号。

Risk Index & ETF Net Flows风险指数与 ETF 净流入 · NEUTRAL中性 · as of截至 Jul 13

Price shaded by flow regime:价格按资金流状态着色: Accumulation (net inflows)吸筹(净流入) Distribution (net outflows)派发(净流出) inflow day流入日 outflow day流出日
5-day net flow5 日净流入
-7,828 BTC
?
Latest day最新一日
$-479M
net flow净流入
Net since launch上线以来净流入
$35.4B
568,490 BTC
ETF flows are useful risk context, but the ETF era is short. They confirm the read; they do not set allocation.ETF 资金流是有用风险背景,但 ETF 时代样本较短。它用于确认读数,不决定仓位。
Net flow (USD, latest)净流入(美元,最新)
$-425M
as of截至 Jul 13
5-day net (USD)5 日净流入(美元)
$-430M
?
Net $ since launch上线以来净流入
$50.9B
ex-GBTC剔除 GBTC $78.2B
Top fund's share of inflows (21-day)头部基金资金流占比(21 天)
59.0%
high = one fund dominates高 = 单一基金主导
Issuer发行人5-day ($m)5 日(百万)Since launch ($m)上线以来(百万)
iShares (IBIT) -103 +60,100
Fidelity (FBTC) -349 +9,914
Grayscale Mini (BTC) +106 +2,525
Bitwise (BITB) +0 +1,977
ARK 21Shares (ARKB) -48 +1,251
VanEck (HODL) +15 +1,142
Morgan Stanley (MSBT) +2 +408
Valkyrie (BRRR) +0 +329
Franklin (EZBC) +0 +328
Invesco (BTCO) +0 +166
WisdomTree (BTCW) +0 +96
Grayscale (GBTC) -117 -27,332
Per-issuer data from Farside Investors (USD, since Jan 2024) — short track record, treat as context only.按发行人明细来自 Farside Investors(美元,2024 年 1 月起)— 历史较短,仅供参考。
Advanced factors · miners, beta, holders, attention, flow高阶因子 · 矿工·贝塔·持有者·关注度·主动盘

Miner economics · hashprice矿工经济 · 哈希价格 · CAPITULATION投降(筑底) deep 2010→深度 2010→

Miner profit margin (vs history)矿工利润率(vs 历史)?5.0%
Miner stress矿工压力87.0/100
Recent hashrate change (14d)近期算力变化(14 天)-11.9% / diff -5.0%
Low miner margins historically mark cycle bottoms.矿工利润低历史上对应周期底部。?

Conditional beta · NDX downside vs upside条件贝塔 · 纳指下行 vs 上行 · MIXED混合

Downside beta (on NDX down-days)下行贝塔(纳指下跌日)0.55 (22.0%ile)
Upside beta (on NDX up-days)上行贝塔(纳指上涨日)0.79
Asymmetry (up − down)不对称(上 − 下)+0.24 (<0 = couples harder down)(<0 = 下跌时耦合更强)
Downside beta to gold对黄金的下行贝塔0.72
When stocks fall, Bitcoin falls harder (amplifier) or holds up better (diversifier). Downside risk:股市下跌时,比特币跌得更多(放大器)或相对抗跌(分散器)。下行贝塔: 0.55× Nasdaq.纳指。?

Holder spread持有者价差 · Distribution派发

Recent buyers vs long-term holders: who is taking profit?近期买家 vs 长期持有者:谁在获利了结??+0.211
How much did recent buyers pay vs current price近期买入成本与现价对比+30.0%
Shows whether short-term holders are taking profit or accumulating. Context only.显示短期持有者是在获利了结还是累积。仅背景。

Attention · Wikipedia关注度 · 维基百科 · Apathy冷清

Pageviews (7d avg)页面浏览(7天均)4,772
Interest level vs normal关注度 vs 正常水平-1.7 (above +2 = mania, below −1 = ignored)(超过 +2 = 狂热,低于 −1 = 无人关注)
Attention predicts volatility, not direction. Extremes matter most.关注度预测波动,不预测方向。极值最重要。

Taker flow · buy/sell balance主动盘 · 买卖失衡 · Aligned一致

Taker buy share主动买盘占比?52%
30-day buy/sell balance30 天买卖失衡+0.19 (positive = more buying pressure)(正值 = 买盘更强)
Shows who is driving trades. Background only — not a buy or sell signal.显示谁在主动推动交易。仅背景 — 不是买卖信号。
Markets at a glance · 3-day direction & signal strength市场一览 · 3 天方向与信号强度
Index指数
S&P 500 Bull看多
Nasdaq Bear看空
Russell 2000 Bull看多
Dow Jones Bull看多
DXY Bear看空
Commodities大宗商品
Gold Bear看空
Silver Bear看空
Brent Oil Bull看多
Crypto加密货币
BTC Bear看空
ETH Bear看空
SOL Bear看空
Alert Timeline · last警报时间线 · 最近 45 days · 8 alerts条警报
Fri Jul 177月17日 周五
Structure结构 Structure Shift: neutral结构转变:中性
Structure oscillator now -0.28 (broken → neutral).结构振荡器现为 -0.28(走坏 → 中性)。
Conviction:可信度: Lower conviction — the edge weakened after 2021 (ETF era).信心较低 — 该优势在 2021 年(ETF 时代)后减弱。
Flips 20% of the time historically (whipsaw rate).历史上约 20% 的时间会反转(来回波动率)。
View on dashboard →在仪表盘查看 →
Sat Jul 117月11日 周六
Oi crowding deriskOi crowding derisk OI crowding building — de-risk context持仓拥挤升高 — 减仓背景
Open interest crossed into elevated (funding-independent). Leverage fuel loading, not a crash call. BTC $63,773.未平仓合约升至偏高(与资金费率无关)。杠杆燃料堆积,并非下跌信号。 BTC $63,773.
Conviction:可信度: OI-crowding de-risk nudge — funding-INDEPENDENT (breaks the cascade AND-gate). LOW-CONVICTION: open interest is anti-predictive standalone (measured lift ~0.36) — a 'fuel building' context flag, not a validated crash call.持仓拥挤减仓提示 — 与资金费率无关(突破连环清算的与门)。低信心:未平仓合约单独使用为反向指标(实测 lift 约 0.36)— 仅为“燃料堆积”背景标记,而非经验证的下跌信号。
View on dashboard →在仪表盘查看 →
Mon Jul 067月6日 周一
Leadership领涨 Leadership rotated to ETH领涨轮动至 ETH
Relative-strength leadership moved BTC → ETH.相对强弱领涨从 BTC 转为 ETH。
Flips 21% of the time historically (whipsaw rate).历史上约 21% 的时间会反转(来回波动率)。
View on dashboard →在仪表盘查看 →
Fri Jul 037月3日 周五
Oi crowding deriskOi crowding derisk OI crowding building — de-risk context持仓拥挤升高 — 减仓背景
Open interest crossed into stretched (funding-independent). Leverage fuel loading, not a crash call. BTC $62,520.未平仓合约升至极度拥挤(与资金费率无关)。杠杆燃料堆积,并非下跌信号。 BTC $62,520.
Conviction:可信度: OI-crowding de-risk nudge — funding-INDEPENDENT (breaks the cascade AND-gate). LOW-CONVICTION: open interest is anti-predictive standalone (measured lift ~0.36) — a 'fuel building' context flag, not a validated crash call.持仓拥挤减仓提示 — 与资金费率无关(突破连环清算的与门)。低信心:未平仓合约单独使用为反向指标(实测 lift 约 0.36)— 仅为“燃料堆积”背景标记,而非经验证的下跌信号。
View on dashboard →在仪表盘查看 →
Mon Jun 296月29日 周一
Impulse warn downImpulse warn down Down-impulse pressure: vol-of-vol jolt下行脉冲压力:波动率跳升
DVOL intraday-range spike (z≥2) — the options market is repricing risk. BTC $60,163.DVOL 日内振幅骤升(z≥2)— 期权市场正在重新定价风险。 BTC $60,163.
Conviction:可信度: Forward de-risk window from a verified LEADING precursor cross (impulse radar). Holdout-validated, leak-free; act early — the edge decays in ~2-4 days. BLIND to slow/options-calm flushes (e.g. it did NOT lead the 2026-06-24 cascade).来自经验证的领先前兆突破的前瞻减仓窗口(脉冲雷达)。已通过留出样本、无前视;应尽早行动 — 优势在约 2-4 天内衰减。对缓慢/期权平静式下跌无效(例如未能领先 2026-06-24 的下跌)。
View on dashboard →在仪表盘查看 →
Wed Jun 246月24日 周三
Impulse warn downImpulse warn down Down-impulse pressure: vol-of-vol jolt下行脉冲压力:波动率跳升
DVOL intraday-range spike (z≥2) — the options market is repricing risk. BTC $60,983.DVOL 日内振幅骤升(z≥2)— 期权市场正在重新定价风险。 BTC $60,983.
Conviction:可信度: Forward de-risk window from a verified LEADING precursor cross (impulse radar). Holdout-validated, leak-free; act early — the edge decays in ~2-4 days. BLIND to slow/options-calm flushes (e.g. it did NOT lead the 2026-06-24 cascade).来自经验证的领先前兆突破的前瞻减仓窗口(脉冲雷达)。已通过留出样本、无前视;应尽早行动 — 优势在约 2-4 天内衰减。对缓慢/期权平静式下跌无效(例如未能领先 2026-06-24 的下跌)。
View on dashboard →在仪表盘查看 →
Sat Jun 206月20日 周六
Oi crowding deriskOi crowding derisk OI crowding building — de-risk context持仓拥挤升高 — 减仓背景
Open interest crossed into elevated (funding-independent). Leverage fuel loading, not a crash call. BTC $64,223.未平仓合约升至偏高(与资金费率无关)。杠杆燃料堆积,并非下跌信号。 BTC $64,223.
Conviction:可信度: OI-crowding de-risk nudge — funding-INDEPENDENT (breaks the cascade AND-gate). LOW-CONVICTION: open interest is anti-predictive standalone (measured lift ~0.36) — a 'fuel building' context flag, not a validated crash call.持仓拥挤减仓提示 — 与资金费率无关(突破连环清算的与门)。低信心:未平仓合约单独使用为反向指标(实测 lift 约 0.36)— 仅为“燃料堆积”背景标记,而非经验证的下跌信号。
View on dashboard →在仪表盘查看 →
Mon Jun 086月8日 周一
Impulse warn downImpulse warn down Down-impulse pressure: vol-of-vol jolt下行脉冲压力:波动率跳升
DVOL intraday-range spike (z≥2) — the options market is repricing risk. BTC $63,063.DVOL 日内振幅骤升(z≥2)— 期权市场正在重新定价风险。 BTC $63,063.
Conviction:可信度: Forward de-risk window from a verified LEADING precursor cross (impulse radar). Holdout-validated, leak-free; act early — the edge decays in ~2-4 days. BLIND to slow/options-calm flushes (e.g. it did NOT lead the 2026-06-24 cascade).来自经验证的领先前兆突破的前瞻减仓窗口(脉冲雷达)。已通过留出样本、无前视;应尽早行动 — 优势在约 2-4 天内衰减。对缓慢/期权平静式下跌无效(例如未能领先 2026-06-24 的下跌)。
View on dashboard →在仪表盘查看 →
Intraday alerts update during the day; regime and on-chain signals update daily. Built日内警报盘中更新;周期与链上信号每日更新。生成于 2026-07-17 17:33 UTC.
How much to trust this · measured records可信度如何 · 实测记录 Signal verdicts & ensemble test信号评定与集成检验

Signal verdicts信号评定 2015-01-01..2026-07-01

Signal信号Verdict评定What's measured测量内容
risk_indexrisk_index CONFIRMED已确认 how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
momentummomentum DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)DIRECTIONAL (one half weak) how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
structurestructure DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)DIRECTIONAL (one half weak) how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
risk_oscillatorrisk_oscillator CONTEXT-ONLYCONTEXT-ONLY how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
bfibfi DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)DIRECTIONAL (one half weak) how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
mvrv_zmvrv_z EXTREMES — low <0: +40.5%/90d 71.9% hit (n=356) [BOTTOM]; high >3.5: +27.1%/90d 57.8% hit (n=277) [weak]EXTREMES — low <0: +40.5%/90d 71.9% hit (n=356) [BOTTOM]; high >3.5: +27.1%/90d 57.8% hit (n=277) [weak] how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
nuplnupl EXTREMES — low <0: +28.0%/90d 66.5% hit (n=603) [BOTTOM]; high >.65: +25.8%/90d 58.5% hit (n=265) [weak]EXTREMES — low <0: +28.0%/90d 66.5% hit (n=603) [BOTTOM]; high >.65: +25.8%/90d 58.5% hit (n=265) [weak] how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
mayermayer EXTREMES — low <0.8: +11.4%/90d 48.5% hit (n=633) [weak]; high >2.4: -13.9%/90d 33.9% hit (n=62) [TOP]EXTREMES — low <0.8: +11.4%/90d 48.5% hit (n=633) [weak]; high >2.4: -13.9%/90d 33.9% hit (n=62) [TOP] how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
puellpuell EXTREMES — low <0.5: +15.8%/90d 59.5% hit (n=153) [weak]EXTREMES — low <0.5: +15.8%/90d 59.5% hit (n=153) [weak] how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
sth_cb_ratiosth_cb_ratio EXTREMES — low <-10%: -1.1%/90d 33.1% hit (n=320) [weak]EXTREMES — low <-10%: -1.1%/90d 33.1% hit (n=320) [weak] how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
hash_ribbon_capithash_ribbon_capit CONTEXT-ONLYCONTEXT-ONLY how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
dvoldvol EXTREMES — low <40: +8.4%/90d 46.8% hit (n=224) [weak]; high >90: +15.8%/90d 71.4% hit (n=168) [weak]EXTREMES — low <40: +8.4%/90d 46.8% hit (n=224) [weak]; high >90: +15.8%/90d 71.4% hit (n=168) [weak] how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
vrpvrp EXTREMES — low <-5: +17.2%/90d 77.8% hit (n=203) [weak]; high >15: +7.2%/90d 53.9% hit (n=484) [TOP]EXTREMES — low <-5: +17.2%/90d 77.8% hit (n=203) [weak]; high >15: +7.2%/90d 53.9% hit (n=484) [TOP] how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
leverage_stressleverage_stress EXTREMES — low 0-25: +12.3%/90d 61.1% hit (n=639) [weak]EXTREMES — low 0-25: +12.3%/90d 61.1% hit (n=639) [weak] how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
funding_zfunding_z EXTREMES — low <-1: +17.4%/90d 67.7% hit (n=152) [weak]EXTREMES — low <-1: +17.4%/90d 67.7% hit (n=152) [weak] how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
oi_price_divergenceoi_price_divergence EXTREMES — low <-10%: +14.8%/90d 70.4% hit (n=159) [weak]EXTREMES — low <-10%: +14.8%/90d 70.4% hit (n=159) [weak] how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
net_liq_rocnet_liq_roc DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)DIRECTIONAL (one half weak) how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
macro_scoremacro_score CONFIRMED已确认 how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
coinbase_premium_emacoinbase_premium_ema EXTREMES — low <-.3: +34.5%/90d 57.1% hit (n=184) [BOTTOM]EXTREMES — low <-.3: +34.5%/90d 57.1% hit (n=184) [BOTTOM] how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
ssr_oscillatorssr_oscillator CONTEXT-ONLYCONTEXT-ONLY how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
mpimpi INVERTEDINVERTED how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
etf_flow_zetf_flow_z DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)DIRECTIONAL (one half weak) how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
reserve_riskreserve_risk EXTREMES — low <.0015: +18.0%/90d 67.2% hit (n=979) [weak]; high >.02: -42.5%/90d 4.2% hit (n=48) [TOP]EXTREMES — low <.0015: +18.0%/90d 67.2% hit (n=979) [weak]; high >.02: -42.5%/90d 4.2% hit (n=48) [TOP] how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
impulseimpulse DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)DIRECTIONAL (one half weak) how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
cycle_pctcycle_pct DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)DIRECTIONAL (one half weak) how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
cot_zcot_z EXTREMES — low <-1.5: +13.2%/90d 47.8% hit (n=224) [weak]; high >1.5: -5.9%/90d 34.1% hit (n=611) [TOP]EXTREMES — low <-1.5: +13.2%/90d 47.8% hit (n=224) [weak]; high >1.5: -5.9%/90d 34.1% hit (n=611) [TOP] how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
corr_spxcorr_spx CONFIRMED已确认 how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
vdd_multiplevdd_multiple EXTREMES — low <.5: +7.5%/90d 42.5% hit (n=779) [weak]; high >2.9: +35.2%/90d 59.1% hit (n=154) [weak]EXTREMES — low <.5: +7.5%/90d 42.5% hit (n=779) [weak]; high >2.9: +35.2%/90d 59.1% hit (n=154) [weak] how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
global_m2_yoyglobal_m2_yoy DIRECTIONAL (full only)DIRECTIONAL (full only) how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
rv_cone_pctilerv_cone_pctile EXTREMES — low 0-25: +24.8%/90d 70.6% hit (n=1206) [weak]; high 75-100: +30.1%/90d 63.8% hit (n=831) [weak]EXTREMES — low 0-25: +24.8%/90d 70.6% hit (n=1206) [weak]; high 75-100: +30.1%/90d 63.8% hit (n=831) [weak] how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
vov_pctilevov_pctile EXTREMES — low 0-25: +12.5%/90d 53.0% hit (n=1160) [weak]; high 75-100: +36.6%/90d 73.8% hit (n=826) [weak]EXTREMES — low 0-25: +12.5%/90d 53.0% hit (n=1160) [weak]; high 75-100: +36.6%/90d 73.8% hit (n=826) [weak] how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
stbl_growth_zstbl_growth_z DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)DIRECTIONAL (one half weak) how well past readings predicted returns历史读数预测收益的效果
Risk Index (as risk signal)风险指数(风险信号) CONFIRMED near-term risk gauge (7d drawdown)CONFIRMED near-term risk gauge (7d drawdown) how well past readings predicted 7-day dips历史读数预测 7 天回撤的效果
We test each signal on how well past readings predicted future results. We only call a signal reliable if it worked in both the first and second half of history. Results below.我们检验每个信号是否能预测后续走势。只有在历史前后两半段均有效的信号才会被采用。

Does blending signals beat our main strategy?信号组合能否超过主策略?

Six uncorrelated signals, tested after costs in both halves of history. Result: the hand-crafted strategy wins.六个独立信号扣除成本后在历史前后两段检验。结论:人工调优策略更优。
KEEP-HEURISTIC — the hand-tuned composite_state is NOT beaten by the fixed-form ensembleKEEP-HEURISTIC — the hand-tuned composite_state is NOT beaten by the fixed-form ensemble
Read读数Return per risk (full)风险调整收益(全样本)pre-20212021 前post-20212021 后
Our main strategy主策略 1.181.480.64
Combined signals信号组合 1.251.480.54
Single best signal单一最优信号 (net_liq_roc) 0.961.190.39
The ensemble beats any single signal, but not the shipped hand-tuned stance. So the stance stays.集成优于任何单一信号,但未超过当前采用的手调立场。因此保留现有立场。
Bitcoin Vector · built生成于 2026-07-17 17:33 UTC · data as of数据截至 Jul 17, 2026
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