China A-Share Market Structure中国A股市场机制 · as of截至 2026-07-17
The A-share market is in Policy Put for the past 17 sessions — selling looks exhausted and a policy floor arrives — early-cycle, driven by policy not broad money. Participation is led by no single group — domestic turnover is below its recent average. Fear (QVIX 22.7) is near-normal, and the broader risk read is low. Policy impulse is targeted support.A股市场目前处于政策托底阶段（已持续 17 个交易日）— 抛压趋于枯竭、政策底部显现 — 周期早段，由政策而非广义流动性驱动。参与方面，无单一主导方主导 — 境内成交低于近期均值。恐慌指标（QVIX 22.7）接近正常，整体风险环境为low。政策冲量为定向支持。
⚑Context only · not a signal or recommendation仅供参考 · 非信号或建议
Built生成 2026-07-17 10:11 UTC
QVIXQVIX 波动率
22.7
fear gauge恐慌指标
Southbound南向资金
+0.28
z-score HK→A港资南向z分数
Margin融资余额
2.86 万亿万亿
5d chg5日变化 -3.32%
Limit-Up涨停
8
of共 1,621 universe股
Limit-Down跌停
46
Failed seals炸板: 3
Market Cycle Position市场周期位置
POLICY PUT政策托底
Selling looks exhausted and a policy floor arrives — early-cycle, driven by policy not broad money.抛压趋于枯竭、政策底部显现 — 周期早段，由政策而非广义流动性驱动。
Confidence置信度
75%
Typical next in cycle: Liquidity Ignition — Money floods in — turnover explodes and limit-ups spike as the first move ignites.周期下一阶段：流动性点火 — 资金涌入 — 成交激增、涨停井喷，首波行情点火。
Typical cycle ordering — not a forecast or signal典型周期顺序 — 非预测或信号
Participation — Who's Trading & How Hot参与度 — 谁在交易、热度几何
as of截至 2026-07-17
Participation tells you whether real money is in the room and who's driving. Turnover z-scores compare today's volume to its recent history; margin balance (融资余额) is borrowed money used to buy stocks; southbound flow is Hong Kong money buying A-shares; QVIX is the market's fear gauge.参与度告诉你是否有真实资金入场、由谁主导。成交额Z分数将当日成交量与近期历史对比；融资余额是借钱买股的杠杆资金；南向资金是港资买入A股；QVIX是市场恐慌指标。
Market Heat市场热度
DormantDormant
regime制度
Participation regime: Dormant. Who controls: mixed. Risk: low.参与制度：Dormant。控盘方：中性。风险：low。
Limit Mechanics — Daily Price Limits涨跌停板机制?CN-SYS-R3: Limit-up/down data is market-structure context only. BUY-direction use is forbidden (standing kill). Lianban (连板) = consecutive limit-up sessions.CN-SYS-R3：涨/跌停板数据仅作市场结构背景，禁止用于买入方向（已裁定禁止）。
2026-07-17
China caps how far a stock can move in a day. 涨停 (limit-up) is the daily ceiling, 跌停 (limit-down) the floor. 连板 (lianban) counts consecutive limit-up days — the mark of speculative streaks. A 'failed seal' touched limit-up but couldn't hold it. When limit-ups outnumber limit-downs, net limit activity leaned to the upside that day.中国对个股单日涨跌幅设有上限。涨停为当日上限，跌停为下限。连板统计连续涨停的天数——投机热潮的标志。开板指触及涨停却未能封住。当涨停多于跌停时，当日净涨停偏多。
Limit-Up涨停
8
of共 1,621 stocks只股票
Limit-Down跌停
46
hit the daily floor触及跌停
Sealed Up封单
5
closed on limit收盘封涨停
Failed Seals炸板
3
touched then fell触及后回落
Lianban 2+连板≥2
1
consecutive up days连续涨停天数
Max Streak最高连板
2
max lianban count最高连板数
Breadth Thermometer — % of universe涨跌比（占全市场比例）
0.49%
2.84%
Green = limit-up breadth · Red = limit-down breadth, as a share of the ~1,585-name universe (limits are rare, so the bar sits low).绿色=涨停广度 · 红色=跌停广度，占约1,585只全市场股票的比例（涨跌停罕见，故占比很低）。
Limit-Up / Down History (90-day)涨跌停历史（近90日）
Notable Events — Latest Session今日涨跌停事件
Ticker代码
Board板块
Event事件
Close off %距限价%
CN-SYS-R3: this panel is market-structure context only. Limit-up as a BUY trigger is a standing kill.CN-SYS-R3：本面板仅作市场结构背景。以涨停作为买入触发器已被永久禁止。
Cycle Phase Memory周期阶段记忆?Current phase classification with confidence and a 90-session strip. Behind the scenes, pre-committed checks grade every phase call; the track record below is the receipt. CN-SYS-R5.含置信度的当前阶段分类和90交易日图条。后台以预先提交的条件对每次阶段判断进行评分，下方跟踪记录即为凭证。CN-SYS-R5。
Markets move through repeating phases — quiet repair, a policy floor, ignition, mania, and eventual unwind. This names where we are now, and every call is graded against the track record below.市场沿着重复的阶段演进——平静修复、政策托底、点火、亢奋，直至去杠杆。本面板标明当前所处阶段，每次判断都会计入下方的跟踪记录。
Current Phase当前阶段
POLICY PUT政策托底
as of截至 2026-07-17
Days in phase已持续天数: 17
Phase Description阶段描述
Selling looks exhausted and a policy floor arrives — early-cycle, driven by policy not broad money.抛压趋于枯竭、政策底部显现 — 周期早段，由政策而非广义流动性驱动。
turnover_z20_nullqvix_z_elevated (1.98)
Confidence置信度
75%
90-Session Phase Strip近90个交易日阶段图条
~90 sessions ago约90个交易日前Today今日
Repair修复期
Policy Put (current)政策托底（当前）
Liquidity Ignition流动性点火
Broadening全面扩散
Theme Leadership题材领涨
Euphoria亢奋期
Distribution派发期
Deleveraging去杠杆
Capitulation恐慌宣泄
Grinding Bear阴跌熊市
Phase-Call Track Record阶段判断跟踪记录
22709
Total Graded总评分
8041
Held持守
1953
Fired触发
"Held" = condition not triggered — phase call consistent with evidence. "Fired" = condition met — phase was subsequently updated. CN-SYS-R5."持守"=条件未触发——阶段判断与证据一致。"触发"=条件满足——阶段随后更新。CN-SYS-R5。
Historical ERA Table (A-Share Market Phases since 2005)历史ERA对照表（2005年以来A股市场阶段）
Era时代
Period时期
Phases Observed经历阶段
Notes注释
Policy Tape政策磁带
In China, policy often drives the market. This reads the current policy impulse — from broad easing to targeted support to tightening — and lists recent moves by the PBoC, State Council, CSRC and others, with how fresh each source is.在中国，政策常常主导市场。本磁带解读当前政策冲量——从全面宽松、定向支持到收紧——并列出央行、国务院、证监会等近期动作及各来源的数据时效。
Current Impulse当前政策冲量
Targeted Supporttargeted_supporttargeted_support
Transmission Channels传导渠道
Fiscal Or StructuralLiquidity
Data Freshness数据时效
lpr: 25d天rrr: 436d天fr007: 0d天communiques: 80d天
Recent Events近期事件
Official policy moves are rare — quarterly meetings, rate and reserve-ratio changes, big liquidity swings. A quiet stretch means no new events, not missing data; freshness per source is stamped above.官方政策事件本就稀少——季度例会、利率与存准调整、大额流动性操作。近期安静意味着没有新事件，而非数据缺失；各来源的数据时效见上方标注。
Cross-Market Context跨市场背景?CGB (China Government Bond) curve from the yield store. USDCNH is the offshore renminbi rate. All staleness-stamped (CN-SYS-R4).CGB（中国国债）收益率曲线。USDCNH为离岸人民币汇率。所有数据均有时效标记（CN-SYS-R4）。
CGB国债 1d stale天前
Bonds and the currency frame the backdrop for stocks. A steep government-bond curve (long yields above short) usually points to easing and reflation ahead; a rising offshore yuan (USDCNH) means capital is leaving.债券与汇率构成股市的背景。国债收益率曲线陡峭（长端高于短端）通常预示宽松与再通胀；离岸人民币（USDCNH）走高意味着资本外流。
China Govt Bond Yield Curve中国国债收益率曲线as of截至 2026-07-17
participation: snapshot_staleness:published row 2026-07-16 is 1d behind tape tail 2026-07-17; tail row missing core legs (turnover_z20, margin_chg_5d) — union-index freshness lag
external: DXY not in current forex/latest.json (no dedicated store)
Glossary术语表
涨停 Limit-Up涨停 Limit-Upzhǎng tíng
A stock hits its maximum daily gain — +10% on the main board, +20% on STAR Market, +30% on ChiNext. The stock cannot trade above this price for the day. A hallmark of A-share market microstructure.股票触及每日最大涨幅——主板+10%，科创板+20%，创业板+30%。当日不得以高于此价格交易。这是A股市场微观结构的标志性机制。
跌停 Limit-Down跌停 Limit-Downdiē tíng
The mirror: maximum daily loss floor. Unlike most markets, A-shares enforce hard daily bands. High limit-down counts signal broad selling pressure or panic.对应的跌幅下限。与大多数市场不同，A股执行严格的每日涨跌幅限制。高跌停数量反映大范围抛压或恐慌情绪。
连板 Lianban连板 Lianbanlián bǎn
Consecutive limit-up days. A "3-board" stock (三板) hits limit-up three days in a row. Retail speculators prize high-lianban names as momentum vehicles.连续涨停板。"三板"股票连续三日涨停。散户投机者视高连板个股为动量载体。
炸板 Failed Seal炸板 Failed Sealzhà bǎn
A stock touches the limit-up price intraday but falls back below it by close — the "seal" broke. High failed seals relative to hits = weak speculative conviction.股票盘中触及涨停价，但收盘前回落——"封板"失败。相对于涨停数的高炸板比例 = 投机意愿薄弱。
QVIX 波动率QVIX 波动率
China's implied volatility index, analogous to VIX. Unlike US VIX where high = fear: in A-shares, high QVIX can co-exist with upside moves.中国隐含波动率指数，类似美国VIX。与美国VIX不同（高=恐惧），A股中高QVIX可与上涨并存。
南向资金 Southbound南向资金 Southbound
Hong Kong → A-share capital flows via Stock Connect. Southbound = HK/offshore investors buying mainland China stocks.通过沪深港通从香港流入A股的资金。南向 = 港澳离岸投资者买入内地股票。
融资余额 Margin Balance融资余额 Margin Balance
Total outstanding margin loan balance across the A-share market (in 亿¥). Rising margin = leverage build-up; falling margin = deleveraging.A股市场融资余额总量（亿元）。余额上升=杠杆积累；余额下降=去杠杆。
CGB 国债 China Govt BondCGB 国债
Yield curve for PBoC-influenced government bonds. A steep upward slope (short rates low, long rates higher) typically indicates normal easing conditions.人民银行影响下的国债收益率曲线。陡峭向上的斜率（短端低、长端高）通常表明正常的宽松环境。