📰 Research Reports研究报告

Research Reports研究报告

In-depth, source-grounded reports on the market events that move the macro picture — FOMC days, regime shifts, cross-asset dislocations. Each is written from the dashboard’s own data plus primary sources, and read in either language.围绕撼动宏观全局的市场事件，撰写有据可查的深度报告 —— FOMC 决议日、范式转变、跨资产错位。每篇均结合本仪表盘数据与一手来源，支持中英双语阅读。

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All全部 AIAIEquities股票Macro宏观Midterms中期选举Energy能源China中国Crypto加密Fed美联储Credit信用Rates利率

The Haven Audition避险选角

Every correction has two havens: the consensus shelter the crowd already owns, and the asymmetric one that proof builds mid-storm — the role Google, then the most-hated megacap, played in Q4 2025 while the freshly-crowned defensive at its all-time high drew down double digits funding it. We measure the template from the price store, grade Meta's six-lever audition for the role — two levers already printing, a disclosure window that opens July 29 — and score the full cast: Meta, Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, and the dark horses. Plus the Washington question: an administration literally long the AI trade, down to equity stakes and a move against Chinese models — a tailwind, not a selector.每一轮调整都有两种避风港：人群早已持有的共识庇护所，与证据在风暴中途现造的不对称避风港——后者正是 2025 年四季度谷歌扮演的角色：当时它是最被憎恨的巨头，而刚加冕、正处历史高点的防御标的反而以两位数回撤为其供血。我们用本站价格库度量这一模板，为 Meta 的六杠杆试镜评级——两条杠杆已在打印收入、披露窗口 7月29日开启——并为全体候选人打分：Meta、Nvidia、Apple、Tesla 与几匹黑马。外加华盛顿之问：一个真金白银做多 AI 交易的政府——直至持有股权、直至对中国模型出手——它是顺风，不是选角人。

AIAIEquities股票Macro宏观Midterms中期选举

⏱ 26 min分钟 →

The Relapse复燃

A tactical companion to The Second Act. The Iran war restarted six weeks early, the disinflation glide path took a torpedo, and Hong Kong ripped 3% into a global risk-off tape — none of it breaks the 18-month map; it bends the schedule. We re-mark our own odds in public, then convert the week's tape into a ranked seven-idea buy list with entry timing, sizing, and the exact tripwire that proves each wrong: energy that now pays carry, the China platform leg with the 1260H caveat, Act II power into weakness, the first Mag-7 trough tranche, gold, Bitcoin, and copper — while memory-chip strength stays something you sell.《第二幕》的战术姊妹篇。伊朗战争提前六周复燃、反通胀滑翔路径中了一枚鱼雷，而恒指却顶着全球避险盘面大涨 3%——这一切都没有推翻 18 个月的路线图，只是弯曲了时间表。本文先公开重估我们自己的概率，再把本周盘面转译为一张排序的七点买入清单，附入场时点、仓位与每个观点被证伪的确切绊线：现在开始付息的能源、附 1260H 警示的中国平台、趁弱建仓的第二幕电力、Mag-7 第一批低谷仓、黄金、比特币与铜——而存储芯片的强势，仍然只能用来卖出。

Equities股票Energy能源China中国Macro宏观Crypto加密

⏱ 18 min分钟 →

The Second Act第二幕

The AI boom isn't ending — it's changing hands. Chips and memory had their run; the money now flows to power, cooling, optical networking, robots, and the payment rails underneath. A month-by-month map from July 2026 to December 2027: what to own, when to buy it, what the Mag 7 are really worth at their cash-flow low, and exactly what would prove us wrong. The best buying window on the map: October 2026.AI 热潮没有结束 —— 而是在换手。芯片与存储已经跑完了自己的一程；资金正流向电力、散热、光模块、机器人，以及底层的支付轨道。这是一份 2026年7月 → 2027年12月的逐月路线图：该持有什么、何时买入、七巨头在现金流低谷处的真实价值，以及什么情况会证明我们错了。全图最佳买入窗口：2026年10月。

AIAIMacro宏观Equities股票Crypto加密China中国

⏱ 45 min分钟 →

The AI Master PlanAI 总体规划

Strip the White House AI Action Plan to its mechanisms and it stops being industrial policy and becomes the refinancing of the United States — a physical-stock strategy that is bubble-dependent by design. A full decode of the five levers, why the state went long its own bubble, and where the losses are pre-routed — with a predictive pathway that maps how the market is front-running the administration’s schedule: distribution now, a midterm-year low, and the blow-off deferred to 2027.剥开白宫《AI 行动计划》看机制，它就不再是产业政策，而是美国的再融资工程 —— 一套在设计上依赖泡沫的“物理存量”战略。全面解码五个杠杆、国家为何做多自己的泡沫、损失被预先路由到何处 —— 并附一条预测路径，剖析市场如何抢跑政府的时间表：当下派发、中期选举年的低点，以及被推迟至 2027 年的“blow-off 冲顶”。

AIAIMacro宏观Fed美联储China中国Credit信用

⏱ 30 min分钟 →

The Bessent Bridge贝森特之桥

One week after the Warsh Shock, the hawkish reset has done the Fed's tightening for it — gold under $4,000, the dollar at a 13-month high, and the AI-and-semis leadership that led all year finally cracked. Then the Treasury Secretary said the quiet part out loud: you can have a strong dollar while the Fed cuts. A decode of the staged sequence — setup, not destination — and where the debasement trade bottoms.沃什冲击一周后，鹰派重置已替美联储完成了紧缩 —— 黄金跌破4000美元、美元创13个月新高、今年全程领涨的AI与半导体板块终于裂开。随后，财长道出了潜台词：美联储降息时也能维持强势美元。解码这套分阶段的序列 —— 是铺垫，而非终点 —— 以及去货币化交易将在何处筑底。

Fed美联储Rates利率Crypto加密Macro宏观

⏱ 12 min分钟 →

The Warsh Shock沃什冲击

Kevin Warsh's first FOMC as Fed Chair — the hawkish dot-plot turn, the press conference that removed forward guidance, the cross-asset reaction, and what it means for markets next.凯文·沃什出任美联储主席后的首次 FOMC —— 鹰派点阵图的转向、取消前瞻指引的发布会、跨资产反应，以及对后市的意义。

Fed美联储Rates利率Equities股票Macro宏观

⏱ 9 min分钟 →

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