Ride gold's trend; step to T-bills when momentum turns down and volatility spikes.顺黄金趋势持有；动量转跌、波动飙升时退守短债。
Gold's drivers, modelled: own it when real yields are falling and the dollar is weak; lean out when real yields rise, the dollar firms, disinflation sets in, or speculators are over-crowded.为黄金的驱动因素建模：实际收益率下行、美元走弱时持有；实际收益率上行、美元走强、通缩或投机过度拥挤时减仓。
Trend-first, vol-targeted, lightly levered — beats gold buy-&-hold on CAGR, Sharpe and drawdown by levering pristine uptrends and stepping aside in chop.趋势优先、波动率目标、轻杠杆——通过在干净上行趋势中加杠杆、震荡中退避，在年化、夏普与回撤上跑赢黄金买入持有。
Trend + vol guard on silver — kept as the honest baseline: on silver, this does NOT beat buy-&-hold (silver's whippy tape punishes a pure trend timer).白银的趋势 + 波动护栏——作为诚实基准保留：在白银上，它并不跑赢买入持有（白银的剧烈走势惩罚纯趋势择时）。
Silver = high-beta gold + an industrial kicker. Combine gold's monetary legs with copper-led growth, gold/silver-ratio mean-reversion and a positioning guard — this beats the trend swap and buy-&-hold on Sharpe and drawdown.白银 = 高贝塔黄金 + 工业属性。将黄金的货币腿与铜主导的增长、金银比均值回归及持仓护栏结合——在夏普与回撤上跑赢趋势开关与买入持有。
Driven off the GOLD regime + the gold/silver-ratio mean-reversion (cheap silver → catch-up) — a robust edge levered into a big CAGR beat (16% vs 11%), in both OOS halves.由黄金regime + 金银比均值回归驱动（白银便宜→补涨）——将稳健优势加杠杆放大为显著的年化跑赢（16% vs 11%），且在两个样本外半段均成立。
Trend + vol guard on copper — cuts the brutal cyclical drawdowns while keeping most of the upside.铜的趋势 + 波动护栏——削减残酷的周期性回撤，同时保留大部分上行。
Dr. Copper, modelled: own it when the copper/gold ratio is firm, China's credit impulse and US industrial production are accelerating, and the dollar is soft; step aside when growth rolls over.为‘铜博士’建模：铜金比走强、中国信用脉冲与美国工业生产加速、美元偏弱时持有；增长回落时退避。
The graded-trend backbone amplified by a global-growth tilt (China credit impulse, copper/gold, US industrial production, dollar) — robustly beats copper buy-&-hold on CAGR, Sharpe and drawdown.以分级趋势为骨架，由全球增长倾斜放大（中国信用脉冲、铜金比、美国工业生产、美元）——在年化、夏普与回撤上稳健跑赢铜买入持有。
Trend + vol guard on Brent — oil is a brutal buy-and-hold (it crashed in 2008, 2014-16 and 2020), so even the simple swap transforms the return profile.布伦特原油的趋势 + 波动护栏——原油买入持有极其惨烈（2008、2014-16、2020 均暴跌），因此即便简单开关也能重塑收益曲线。
A USD-led oil model: a rising broad dollar is the cleanest fundamental headwind, backwardation flags a physically tight market, and trend carries the crash-avoidance. Inventory & positioning were tested and dropped (no forward edge).以美元主导的原油模型：广义美元走强是最干净的基本面逆风，现货升水（backwardation）标志现货市场紧张，趋势承担避免暴跌的职责。库存与持仓经检验后剔除（无前瞻性）。