Our proprietary multi-year cycle timer: go fully risk-on at each projected cycle bottom, ride the up-phase to the projected top, then sit in cash through the down-phase and re-enter at the next projected bottom. The down-phase has historically bottomed into the US midterm elections — the post-election fiscal impulse throws off inflation the Fed tightens into ~18–24 months later, with BTC capitulating in the trough — so the timer is in cash through midterm years until the vote. The exact timing model is proprietary.
Includes ~10%/yr borrow cost on the levered portion + margin liquidation when position equity hits zero.含杠杆部分约10%/年借贷成本，及保证金归零时强平。
Cycle pivots · projected周期拐点 · 预测
Date日期
Pivot拐点
BTCBTC
Jan 2015
bottom
$178
Dec 2017
top
$16,690
Dec 2018
bottom
$3,430
Nov 2021
top
$64,912
Nov 2022
bottom
$15,892
Oct 2025
top
$123,343
Oct 2026
bottom
projected预测
How it works运作方式
Anchor on a confirmed cycle bottom; the timer projects every pivot forward.
At a projected bottom: allocate 100% (optionally leveraged).
Hold through the projected up-phase to the projected top — no mid-cycle trimming.
At the top: sell to cash and sit out the projected down-phase (it bottoms into the US midterms).
Re-enter at the next projected bottom. Repeat.
⚠ Honest caveats诚实警示
Walk-forward, but seeded from one known bottom and only a few completed cycles — small sample, high overfitting risk.
Holds through brutal mid-cycle drawdowns (≈ −62% even unlevered, e.g. the 2021 −55% crash).
Leverage is dangerous: 2× ran a −94% drawdown; 3× was LIQUIDATED to $0 by a single ~−37% day (the Mar-2020 COVID crash). Borrow cost (~10%/yr) is included.
The cycle is a historical regularity, not a law — ETF/institutional flows may stretch it.
Stay invested while the trend is intact and value is reasonable, de-risk as price stretches above its long-term mean, and step aside when the trend breaks. Exposure is scaled by a 200-day trend filter and a 350-day stretch throttle rather than by calendar timing — and, reflecting the house view, it stands aside through US midterm-election years until the vote, the period that has been hardest on BTC.
Trend gate: invested only while price > 200-day SMA.
Risk throttle: 100% when price < 2× the 350-day SMA…
…60% when 2–3.5×, 30% when > 3.5× (overheated).
Flat when the 200-day trend breaks down.
Stand aside (cash) through US midterm-election years until ~election day.
⚠ Honest caveats诚实警示
Trend-following: gives back part of every top and re-enters late after bottoms.
Parameters (200/350-day, 2×/3.5×) are sensible but not exhaustively tuned.
The midterm-election blackout is a deterministic calendar rule on only a few cycles of history.
Backtests use real daily BTC closes from 2014-09. Cycle pivots are projected walk-forward by our proprietary cycle timer — not placed with hindsight. Both strategies stand aside through US midterm-election years until the vote. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not financial advice.回测使用 2014-09 起的真实 BTC 日收盘价。周期拐点由我们专有的周期计时器前向推算，非事后标注。两种策略在美国中期选举年均回避至投票前后。过往表现不代表未来。非投资建议。