🔮 Anticipation预判

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Two separate reads per asset: (1) a RISK cone — the range of returns and the typical / worst drawdown over each horizon (always shown, the validated core); and (2) a DIRECTION lean — P(up), shown in color ONLY where it passed out-of-sample validation. Everywhere else, direction is the coin-flip it measurably is.每个标的有两类读数:(1) 风险锥 — 各周期的收益区间与常见/最坏回撤(始终显示,经验证的核心);(2) 方向倾向 — 上涨概率,仅在通过样本外验证处以彩色显示。其余皆为实测的抛硬币。

HOW TO READ如何阅读:   up-lean (green, validated)偏多(绿色,已验证)  ·  coin-flip (grey, not predictable)抛硬币(灰色,不可预测)  ·  down-lean (red, validated)偏空(红色,已验证)
Cone锥体 = return range p05–p95; the red lower half is the downside / drawdown.收益区间 p05–p95;红色下半部为下行 / 回撤。   Stretch / Fragility拉伸 / 脆弱度 = how stretched vs the asset’s OWN history → only WIDENS the cone (display-only, NOT a valuation or sell call).相对自身历史的拉伸程度 → 仅使锥体更宽(仅展示,并非估值或卖出信号)。

Drivers驱动因子 (★ = validated / scored · dashed = display-only★ = 已验证/计分 · 虚线 = 仅展示)

All assets — ranked by anticipation index (stress)全部标的 — 按预判指数(压力)排序

Higher index = more confluence stress (a wider, more left-skewed cone), NOT a sell call. Click a row to load its cone.指数越高 = 合流压力越大(锥体更宽、更左偏),并非卖出信号。点击行加载其锥体。

Asset标的 Stretch拉伸 Band区间 Short dip (typ/worst)短期回撤 常见/最坏 Med return / worst dip中期 收益/最坏回撤 Direction (validated)方向(已验证) Top driver首要驱动