🧭 Demand Desk 需求台
Shows where real demand signals look stronger or weaker than market expectations. Context only; not a buy or sell signal. 显示真实需求信号相对市场预期更强或更弱的位置。仅供参考，非买入或卖出信号。
· As of 截至 2026-07-16
The demand pools (independent signals) 需求来源（独立信号）
AI / datacenter AI／数据中心
leading 领先
+69% YoY 同比 · ~$379B
Hyperscaler capex 云厂商资本开支 · accelerating 加速 · FY2025 · n=5
FY23 $149.0B FY24 $224.1B FY25 $378.7B
Homebuilder demand 房屋建筑商需求
coincident 同步
-4% YoY 同比 · ~$113B
Homebuilder volume (revenue) 建筑商销量（营收） · contracting 收缩 · FY2025 · n=6
FY23 $111.7B FY24 $118.5B FY25 $113.3B
Software bookings (RPO) 软件已签约订单（RPO）
leading 领先
53 names 只
Contracted forward bookings 已签约前瞻订单
PLTR +141% XYL +111% TMDX +75%
Payer-side capex burden (spender cohorts) 支付方资本开支负担（需求链发起方）
?Annual company data, usually delayed. High capex plus negative free cash flow can flag funding stress. Context only. 年度公司数据，通常有滞后。高资本开支叠加负自由现金流，可能提示资金压力。仅供参考。
AI / datacenter spenders AI／数据中心支付方
Spender 支出方 Capex/OCF 资本开支/OCF Trend 趋势 FCF ($B) 自由现金流（十亿） Net-debt Δ ($B) 净债务变化（十亿） FY 财年 Flag 标记
MSFT
47%
rising rising
+71.6
-13.7
FY2025
GOOGL
56%
rising rising
+73.3
+29.4
FY2025
AMZN
94%
rising rising
+7.7
+2.7
FY2025
META
60%
rising rising
+46.1
+37.9
FY2025
ORCL
174%
rising rising
-23.7
-20.6
FY2026
FCF trap FCF陷阱
Homebuilder revenue spenders 建筑商营收来源方
Spender 支出方 Capex/OCF 资本开支/OCF Trend 趋势 FCF ($B) 自由现金流（十亿） Net-debt Δ ($B) 净债务变化（十亿） FY 财年 Flag 标记
DHI
4%
falling falling
+3.3
—
FY2025
LEN
87%
rising rising
+0.0
—
FY2025
PHM
7%
flat flat
+1.8
-0.3
FY2025
NVR
2%
flat flat
+1.1
—
FY2025
TOL
8%
flat flat
+1.0
—
FY2025
KBH
14%
rising rising
+0.3
—
FY2025
Annual XBRL (fingerprint-class); lag ~90 days from fiscal-year-end. Net-debt delta from balance-sheet YoY — may include acquisitions. Not a sell signal. Display-only. 年度XBRL（指纹级）；财年末后约90天滞后。净债务变化来自资产负债表同比——可能包含并购。非卖出信号。仅展示。
Ahead of consensus 领先共识 20 names 只
Independent demand running ahead of estimates — the variant list. Worth watching, not a buy signal. 独立需求跑在预期之前——变体清单。值得关注，非买入信号。
Name 标的 Chain 链条 Independent signal 独立信号 Consensus 共识
XYL own_rpo · bookings +111% decelerating 增速放缓 falling falling
TMDX own_rpo · bookings +75% accelerating 加速 falling falling
NRG ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 flat flat
DUK ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 flat flat
VST ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 flat flat
ACLS ai_datacenter · wfe +69% accelerating 加速 flat flat
TLN ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 falling falling
SO ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 flat flat
PCG ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 flat flat
GEV ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 flat flat
GLW ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 flat flat
TLN ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 falling falling
AVAV own_rpo · bookings +62% decelerating 增速放缓 falling falling
ORA own_rpo · bookings +59% decelerating 增速放缓 falling falling
MDT own_rpo · bookings +33% accelerating 加速 falling falling
BA own_rpo · bookings +31% accelerating 加速 flat flat
PANW own_rpo · bookings +24% accelerating 加速 falling falling
LDOS own_rpo · bookings +14% accelerating 加速 falling falling
LMT own_rpo · bookings +10% accelerating 加速 flat flat
ITRI own_rpo · bookings +7% accelerating 加速 falling falling
Consensus at risk 共识承压 10 names 只
Name 标的 Chain 链条 Independent signal 独立信号 Consensus 共识
INTU hiring · headcount -3% contracting 收缩 rising rising
LII housing · products -4% contracting 收缩 rising rising
CARR housing · products -4% contracting 收缩 rising rising
MAS housing · products -4% contracting 收缩 rising rising
ATI own_rpo · bookings -5% contracting 收缩 rising rising
CMC own_rpo · bookings -12% contracting 收缩 rising rising
WDC own_rpo · bookings -37% contracting 收缩 rising rising
MTRN own_rpo · bookings -44% contracting 收缩 rising rising
APP hiring · headcount -52% contracting 收缩 rising rising
ROK own_rpo · bookings -100% contracting 收缩 rising rising
In the price 已计入价格 — 88 names 只
Name 标的 Chain 链条 Independent signal 独立信号 Consensus 共识
PLTR own_rpo · bookings +141% accelerating 加速 rising rising
BWXT ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
LRCX ai_datacenter · wfe +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
VRT ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
KLAC ai_datacenter · wfe +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
ICHR ai_datacenter · wfe +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
D ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
COHR ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
AEP ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
ETN ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
HUBB ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
GNRC ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
AVGO ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
AEIS ai_datacenter · wfe +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
KLIC ai_datacenter · wfe +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
AMD ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
DELL ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
ONTO ai_datacenter · wfe +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
MU ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
SRE ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
ANET ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
TER ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
LITE ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
VECO ai_datacenter · wfe +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
CIEN ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
NXT ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
PWR ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
NVDA ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
FORM ai_datacenter · wfe +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
NVT ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
ENTG ai_datacenter · wfe +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
AMAT ai_datacenter · wfe +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
SMCI ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
FIX ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
EME ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
MKSI ai_datacenter · wfe +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
POWL ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
QCOM ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
MPWR ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
COHU ai_datacenter · wfe +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
NEE ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
MRVL ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
UCTT ai_datacenter · wfe +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
APH ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
AMD ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
PWR ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
D ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
FORM ai_datacenter · wfe +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
TER ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
CIEN ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
ONTO ai_datacenter · wfe +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
POWL ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
MRVL ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
COHU ai_datacenter · wfe +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
HUBB ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
UCTT ai_datacenter · wfe +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
NVDA ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
FIX ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
ANET ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
SMCI ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
VECO ai_datacenter · wfe +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
MU ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
ETN ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
MPWR ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
GNRC ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
VRT ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
SRE ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
EME ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
MKSI ai_datacenter · wfe +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
QCOM ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
BWXT ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
AEP ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
NXT ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
LRCX ai_datacenter · wfe +69% accelerating 加速 rising rising
DDOG own_rpo · bookings +52% accelerating 加速 rising rising
ZBRA own_rpo · bookings +48% decelerating 增速放缓 rising rising
ORCL own_rpo · bookings +41% decelerating 增速放缓 rising rising
CRWD own_rpo · bookings +38% expanding 扩张 rising rising
MSFT own_rpo · bookings +36% accelerating 加速 rising rising
GD own_rpo · bookings +30% accelerating 加速 rising rising
CRM own_rpo · bookings +27% accelerating 加速 rising rising
NOW own_rpo · bookings +26% accelerating 加速 rising rising
PTC own_rpo · bookings +26% accelerating 加速 rising rising
RTX own_rpo · bookings +23% accelerating 加速 rising rising
ENS own_rpo · bookings +22% accelerating 加速 rising rising
DHR own_rpo · bookings +21% accelerating 加速 rising rising
CW own_rpo · bookings +21% accelerating 加速 rising rising
V own_rpo · bookings +20% decelerating 增速放缓 rising rising
QLYS own_rpo · bookings +19% accelerating 加速 rising rising
PATH own_rpo · bookings +19% accelerating 加速 rising rising
TRMB own_rpo · bookings +18% accelerating 加速 rising rising
OKTA own_rpo · bookings +14% decelerating 增速放缓 rising rising
TMO own_rpo · bookings +13% accelerating 加速 rising rising
ADBE own_rpo · bookings +13% decelerating 增速放缓 rising rising
ILMN own_rpo · bookings +12% accelerating 加速 rising rising
FTNT own_rpo · bookings +12% accelerating 加速 rising rising
HII own_rpo · bookings +9% accelerating 加速 rising rising
KTOS own_rpo · bookings +9% decelerating 增速放缓 rising rising
NTAP own_rpo · bookings +8% accelerating 加速 rising rising
CTVA own_rpo · bookings +8% accelerating 加速 rising rising
A own_rpo · bookings +7% decelerating 增速放缓 rising rising
CF own_rpo · bookings +4% flat 持平 rising rising
GOOGL hiring · headcount +4% flat 持平 rising rising
DE own_rpo · bookings +4% flat 持平 flat flat
IQV own_rpo · bookings +2% flat 持平 falling falling
LH own_rpo · bookings -0% flat 持平 rising rising
OC housing · products -4% contracting 收缩 falling falling
SHW housing · products -4% contracting 收缩 flat flat
FBIN housing · products -4% contracting 收缩 falling falling
MHK housing · products -4% contracting 收缩 falling falling
BLDR housing · products -4% contracting 收缩 falling falling
SHW housing · products -4% contracting 收缩 flat flat
ENPH own_rpo · bookings -10% contracting 收缩 falling falling
PFE own_rpo · bookings -56% contracting 收缩 flat flat
GPN own_rpo · bookings -76% contracting 收缩 falling falling
DUOL hiring · headcount -81% contracting 收缩 falling falling
DOCU own_rpo · bookings +0% flat 持平 rising rising
MA own_rpo · bookings +0% flat 持平 rising rising
ZBH own_rpo · bookings n/a 不明 rising rising
Signal only 仅信号 — 21 names 只
Name 标的 Chain 链条 Independent signal 独立信号 Consensus 共识
ARM ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 none none
CORZ ai_datacenter · neocloud +69% accelerating 加速 none none
SMR ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 none none
BTDR ai_datacenter · neocloud +69% accelerating 加速 none none
LEU ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 none none
ALAB ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 none none
WULF ai_datacenter · neocloud +69% accelerating 加速 none none
CIFR ai_datacenter · neocloud +69% accelerating 加速 none none
OKLO ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 none none
NNE ai_datacenter · power +69% accelerating 加速 none none
APLD ai_datacenter · neocloud +69% accelerating 加速 none none
IREN ai_datacenter · neocloud +69% accelerating 加速 none none
NVMI ai_datacenter · wfe +69% accelerating 加速 none none
CRDO ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 none none
CAMT ai_datacenter · wfe +69% accelerating 加速 none none
NBIS ai_datacenter · neocloud +69% accelerating 加速 none none
HUT ai_datacenter · neocloud +69% accelerating 加速 none none
CBRS ai_datacenter · compute +69% accelerating 加速 none none
CRWV ai_datacenter · neocloud +69% accelerating 加速 none none
RIOT ai_datacenter · neocloud +69% accelerating 加速 none none
BLD housing · products -4% contracting 收缩 none none
Accountability — the variant calls are scored forward 可问责 — 变体判断前向评分
0 decided / 41 open. Need ≥20 decided before a verdict means anything; the forward record is still accruing (theses grade as their ~6-month horizons elapse). The signal is NOT back-testable historically (annual cadence, no point-in-time consensus history), so this forward ledger is the only honest path. 已判定 0 个／未结 41 个。需至少 20 个已判定才有意义；前向记录仍在累积（随约6个月持有期到期逐步判定）。该信号无法用历史数据回测（年度频率、无时点共识历史），故此前向记录是唯一诚实的验证路径。
Method: each chain aggregates a spender cohort's capex/revenue (or a name's own RPO) from SEC filings as the forward-demand pool, then compares its trend to the name's analyst-revision direction. Cross-company / annual / coarse — a divergence flag, not a forecast. The signal is NOT historically back-testable (annual cadence, no point-in-time consensus history), so the forward-scored ledger above is the only honest validation path. 方法：每条链条以卖方/客户群体的资本开支或营收（或个股自身RPO）作为前瞻需求来源（来自SEC财报），再将其趋势与该股分析师评级调整方向对比。跨公司／年度／粗粒度——是背离标记而非预测。该信号无法用历史数据回测（年度频率、无时点共识历史），故上方前向评分记录是唯一诚实的验证路径。