📡 Signal Intelligence Desk信号情报台

Alternative Data替代数据

Where independent public-record channels — congressional & insider buying, federal-contract acceleration, lobbying, dark-pool flow, smart-money 13F, app-store demand, patents — and the affiliations of influential actors line up on the same name. We surface the connection, score the conviction, grade every call against the tape, and emit it to the portfolio bot.当多条独立的公开记录信号——国会与内部人买入、联邦合同加速、游说、暗池资金流、聪明钱13F、应用商店需求、专利——与有影响力人物的关联在同一标的上对齐时浮现出来。我们呈现关联、评估置信、用市场检验每个判断,并将其传输给组合机器人。

Quiver Quantitative (Trader plan) As of截至 2026-07-17 22 actors人物 · 105 edges关系 mastermind.json ↗ feed.json ↗ early — 14d of evidence早期积累 — 14天数据
Actionable signals可操作信号
107
ranked, ≥2 channels or an affiliation已排名,≥2通道或一项关联
Top conviction最高置信
NVDA
score评分 69 · high
Affiliated tickers关联标的
33
actor → name connections人物→标的连接
Ledger战绩
accruing累积中 · 311 open未到期

🎯 Conviction board置信榜 deterministic convergence only — AI read unavailable; nothing graded yet仅确定性汇聚——AI解读不可用;尚无对标普评分 early — 14d of evidence早期积累 — 14天数据

69
score评分
NVDA WATCH high -3pp 60d
Influence link影响力关联CNBC pickCNBC推荐Dark-pool accum暗池吸筹hf_model_momentumhf_model_momentumPatent cluster专利集群Retail buzz散户热度special_situationspecial_situation
🔗 Jensen Huang (controls) · Nancy Pelosi (holds stake) · Marjorie Taylor Greene (holds stake) · Michael McCaul (holds stake) · Jim Cramer (talks about) · Paul Pelosi (affiliates with)
61
score评分
MSFT WATCH high -10pp 60d
Influence link影响力关联App demand应用需求github_momentumgithub_momentumGov contracts政府合同Patent cluster专利集群
🔗 Sam Altman (partners with) · Bill Ackman (affiliates with)
58
score评分
AAPL WATCH medium ⚡ T2 Trump-linked特朗普关联 +16pp 60d
Influence link影响力关联Patent cluster专利集群Trump trade特朗普交易
🔗 Dan Crenshaw (holds stake) · Paul Pelosi (affiliates with) · Marjorie Taylor Greene (affiliates with) · Warren Buffett (affiliates with)
57
score评分
GOOGL WATCH high -1pp 60d
Influence link影响力关联App demand应用需求hf_model_momentumhf_model_momentumspecial_situationspecial_situation
🔗 Nancy Pelosi (holds stake) · Paul Pelosi (affiliates with)
53
score评分
LUV WATCH medium +13pp 60d
activist_13dactivist_13dInfluence link影响力关联App demand应用需求
🔗 Paul Singer (affiliates with)
52
score评分
LILA WATCH medium +22pp 60d
Insider cluster-buy内部人集群买入special_situationspecial_situation
51
score评分
AMZN WATCH medium ⚡ T2 Trump-linked特朗普关联 -5pp 60d
Influence link影响力关联special_situationspecial_situationTrump trade特朗普交易
🔗 Nancy Pelosi (holds stake) · Paul Pelosi (affiliates with) · Dan Crenshaw (affiliates with) · Bill Ackman (affiliates with)
49
score评分
PLTR WATCH medium -14pp 60d
Influence link影响力关联Contracts accelerating合同加速Retail buzz散户热度
🔗 Marjorie Taylor Greene (holds stake) · Cathie Wood (affiliates with)
48
score评分
AMD WATCH high extended已拉伸 +76pp 60d
Congress cluster-buy国会集群买入github_momentumgithub_momentumRetail buzz散户热度special_situationspecial_situation
48
score评分
F WATCH medium +6pp 60d
activist_13dactivist_13dContracts accelerating合同加速
48
score评分
MRK WATCH medium +4pp 60d
clinical_phase3_startclinical_phase3_startfda_label_expansionfda_label_expansionspecial_situationspecial_situation
47
score评分
DHR WATCH medium Trump-linked特朗普关联 -1pp 60d
Influence link影响力关联special_situationspecial_situationTrump trade特朗普交易
🔗 Jim Cramer (affiliates with)
47
score评分
GOOG WATCH medium Trump-linked特朗普关联 -0pp 60d
Influence link影响力关联special_situationspecial_situationTrump trade特朗普交易
🔗 Dan Crenshaw (affiliates with)
45
score评分
N/A WATCH medium price n/a无价格
Insider cluster-buy内部人集群买入special_situationspecial_situation

signal_score = weighted convergence + AI conviction + price confirmation − extension. action/direction from the Opus brain when present; otherwise a deterministic WATCH. Never an order — the bot sizes it through its own risk framework.signal_score = 加权汇聚 + AI置信 + 价格确认 − 拉伸。存在时由Opus大脑给出action/direction;否则为确定性WATCH。绝非下单——机器人通过自身风险框架进行仓位管理。

Attention on broken names — crowd activity, NOT entries问题标的受关注——仅为人气聚焦,非入场信号 rolling-over: off 252d high ≤ −15% AND 20d return < 0 AND below 50dma — conviction-ranked but excluded from the main board下行趋势:较252日高点 ≤ −15% 且20日收益<0 且低于50日均线——已按置信度排序但排除在主榜之外

54
score评分
IBM rolling over下行 -19pp 60d
CNBC pickCNBC推荐github_momentumgithub_momentumGov contracts政府合同hf_model_momentumhf_model_momentumPatent cluster专利集群unusual_optionsunusual_options
54
score评分
INTC rolling over下行 +42pp 60d extended已拉伸
Dark-pool accum暗池吸筹gov_grantgov_grantPatent cluster专利集群special_situationspecial_situation
50
score评分
TSLA rolling over下行 -6pp 60d
13F add机构加仓Influence link影响力关联Retail buzz散户热度special_situationspecial_situation
43
score评分
BA rolling over下行 -11pp 60d
Influence link影响力关联gov_grantgov_grantPatent cluster专利集群
42
score评分
MSTR rolling over下行 -51pp 60d
Influence link影响力关联material_8kmaterial_8kspecial_situationspecial_situation
39
score评分
AZN rolling over下行 -22pp 60d
clinical_phase3_startclinical_phase3_startfda_label_expansionfda_label_expansionspecial_situationspecial_situation
38
score评分
ACN rolling over下行 -32pp 60d
Contracts accelerating合同加速material_8kmaterial_8k
37
score评分
CNTM rolling over下行 -36pp 60d
Insider cluster-buy内部人集群买入special_situationspecial_situation

🕸️ Influence graph影响力图谱 important actors → the names they control, hold, talk about, or partner with重要人物→他们控制、持有、谈论或合作的标的

Trump family · Eric Trump, Donald Trump Jr.Eric Trump、Donald Trump Jr.
Influencer · Paul Pelosi, Jim CramerPaul Pelosi、Jim Cramer
Politician · Nancy Pelosi, Tommy Tuberville, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Ro Khanna, Dan Crenshaw, Michael McCaulNancy Pelosi、Tommy Tuberville、Marjorie Taylor Greene、Ro Khanna、Dan Crenshaw、Michael McCaul
Founder / exec · Elon Musk, Jensen Huang, Michael Saylor, Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, Larry EllisonElon Musk、Jensen Huang、Michael Saylor、Mark Zuckerberg、Sam Altman、Larry Ellison
Fund / activist · Warren Buffett, Bill Ackman, Carl Icahn, Cathie Wood, Michael Burry, Paul SingerWarren Buffett、Bill Ackman、Carl Icahn、Cathie Wood、Michael Burry、Paul Singer
🔁 American Bitcoin (ABTC)branded标榜为 Crypto / digital assets, but value accrues to但价值归属于 AI power & data-center infrastructure via经由 Hut 8 Corp → HUT. Owns ~80% of American Bitcoin + is its exclusive infrastructure/operations partner. PIVOTED to AI power/data-center infra (Anthropic/Fluidstack 245MW $7B Dec-2025; $9.8B Beacon Point lease May-2026; >$16.8B pipeline; 8.6GW in development).
🔁 CVR Energy (CVI)branded标榜为 Energy transition & oil majors, but value accrues to但价值归属于 Activist value investing via经由 Icahn Enterprises → IEP. Carl Icahn's diversified holding company; operates energy (CVR Energy), automotive, real estate segments
Ticker标的Connected actors关联人物 Actors人数Alt-data替代数据Top holder最大股东
NVDA Jensen Huang controls; Nancy Pelosi holds stake; Marjorie Taylor Greene holds stake; Michael McCaul holds stake; Jim Cramer talks about; Paul Pelosi affiliates with 6 corroborated已印证 7ch VANGUARD GROUP INC
META Mark Zuckerberg controls; Mark Zuckerberg controls; Dan Crenshaw holds stake; Bill Ackman affiliates with 4 corroborated已印证 2ch VANGUARD GROUP INC
AMZN Nancy Pelosi holds stake; Paul Pelosi affiliates with; Dan Crenshaw affiliates with; Bill Ackman affiliates with 4 corroborated已印证 3ch BEZOS JEFFREY P
AAPL Dan Crenshaw holds stake; Paul Pelosi affiliates with; Marjorie Taylor Greene affiliates with; Warren Buffett affiliates with 4 corroborated已印证 3ch VANGUARD GROUP INC
TSLA Elon Musk controls; Larry Ellison holds stake; Cathie Wood affiliates with 3 corroborated已印证 4ch Musk Elon
MSTR Michael Saylor controls; Michael Saylor controls 2 corroborated已印证 3ch
MSFT Sam Altman partners with; Bill Ackman affiliates with 2 corroborated已印证 5ch BARCLAYS PLC
ORCL Larry Ellison controls; Larry Ellison controls 2 corroborated已印证 2ch VANGUARD GROUP INC
IEP Carl Icahn controls; Carl Icahn affiliates with 2 corroborated已印证 2ch
GOOGL Nancy Pelosi holds stake; Paul Pelosi affiliates with 2 corroborated已印证 4ch VANGUARD GROUP INC
PLTR Marjorie Taylor Greene holds stake; Cathie Wood affiliates with 2 corroborated已印证 3ch VANGUARD GROUP INC
DJT Eric Trump controls 1 corroborated已印证 2ch Trump Donald J. JR
BRK.B Warren Buffett controls 1 corroborated已印证 2ch
BA Jim Cramer endorses 1 corroborated已印证 3ch VANGUARD GROUP INC
QCOM Tommy Tuberville holds stake 1 corroborated已印证 2ch VANGUARD GROUP INC
MU Ro Khanna affiliates with 1 corroborated已印证 2ch VANGUARD GROUP INC
Actor → theme chains人物→主题链条 — 20
Actor人物Theme主题Proxy投资标的Conf置信
Mark ZuckerbergSocial media platforms & AI integration META0.95
Elon MuskElectric vehicles & autonomous driving 0.95
Jensen HuangAI compute & data centers 0.95
Michael SaylorCrypto & digital assets 0.93
Michael SaylorBitcoin treasury corporate strategy MSTR0.92
Eric TrumpCrypto / digital assets ABTC0.9
Donald Trump Jr.Crypto / digital assets ABTC0.9
Sam AltmanAI compute & data centers 0.9
Larry EllisonCloud infrastructure & enterprise software ORCL0.9
Carl IcahnActivist value investing IEP0.88
Cathie WoodCrypto & digital assets ARKK0.88
Ro KhannaSemiconductors & chip supply chain 0.88
Eric TrumpAI power & data-center infrastructure HUT0.85
Donald Trump Jr.AI power & data-center infrastructure HUT0.85

📊 Track record战绩 every convergence logged as a dated, falsifiable thesis vs SPY每次汇聚记为带日期、可证伪的对标普论点

0 scored已评分 311 open未到期

No theses scored yet — the track record begins once the first check-by dates pass. Keep conviction modest until it does.尚无判断被评分 —— 待首批核查日到期后开始累积战绩;在此之前置信保持克制。

🔬 Signal feeds信号源 each feed as its derived signal — Quiver + federal grants · SEC 8-K · FDA · clinical · options · AI-adoption每个数据源呈现为其衍生信号 —— Quiver + 联邦补助 · SEC 8-K · FDA · 临床 · 期权 · AI采用

📜 Gov-contract leaders政府合同领先 30d

Ticker标的Awarded授予Accel加速Top agency主要机构
DELL$211,803,198 Department of Homeland Security
PLTR$86,884,454 20.6×Department of Homeland Security
MDLN$84,504,639 1.0×Department of Veterans Affairs
ACN$29,242,266 40.6×Department of the Treasury
LUMN$23,762,300 48.9×Department of Homeland Security
MSFT$22,858,532 Department of State
GD$14,746,762 0.1×Department of Health and Human Services
LUNR$13,724,539 National Aeronautics and Space Administration
FLY$13,295,829 National Aeronautics and Space Administration
CDW$12,509,058 0.7×Department of Transportation

🏛️ Congress net buying国会净买入 90d

Ticker标的NetMembers人数Est.$估值
HUBB+222$225,011
AMD+143$112,007
LPLA+141$112,007
TDG+141$112,007
STE+123$96,006
ENTG+122$96,006
BEP+101$129,005
FSV+101$80,005
GIL+101$80,005
T+84$303,506

👔 Insider net buying内部人净买入 90d

Ticker标的Net $净额Buyers买家
FINS$1,600,000,000,000,0001
SVRE$7,977,148,4166
PBLS$434,498,5298
N/A$187,491,15430
SMMT$103,255,9005
KARD$90,000,0003
DPC$75,821,49311
COE$58,791,13742
CNTM$53,623,73916
AVO$52,565,56617

📱 App-store demand应用商店需求

Ticker标的Rating评分Reviews评论App应用
UBER4.84★29,626,299Uber - Request a ride
GOOGL4.71★25,832,561Google Drive
MSFT4.77★19,771,151Microsoft Outlook
WMT4.82★18,646,212Walmart: Shopping & Savings
LYFT4.91★17,713,858Lyft
SBUX4.89★8,099,840Starbucks
Z4.8★7,631,477Zillow Real Estate & Rentals
ETSY4.92★7,231,067Etsy: Shop Home, Style & More
LUV4.84★7,111,028Southwest Airlines: Travel App
DAL4.85★7,005,725Fly Delta

🔬 Patent clusters专利集群

Ticker标的Grants授权IPC分类
QCOM39735
TSM32039
IBM24436
AAPL22252
INTC17533
MU15017
MSFT14923
LPL11413
NVDA9015
SONY8731

💼 Lobbying spend游说支出 45d

Ticker标的Spend支出Spike激增
AMAT$780,000
MSI$570,000
CRMD$380,000
QVCGB$220,000
UNM$200,000
BC$191,000
BLSH$182,500
PCAR$180,000
NTRA$170,000
HRL$160,000

🏦 Institutional 13F adds机构13F加仓

Ticker标的Fund基金Δ $变化
VOOCurated Wealth Partners LLC$2,377,297,348
UNPCurated Wealth Partners LLC$2,030,517,264
AZOCurated Wealth Partners LLC$1,929,062,992
SPGICurated Wealth Partners LLC$1,428,889,629
ANETCurated Wealth Partners LLC$1,373,111,500
TDGCurated Wealth Partners LLC$1,309,918,812
BRK.BCurated Wealth Partners LLC$1,101,868,287
PMCurated Wealth Partners LLC$1,066,355,904
TRVCurated Wealth Partners LLC$910,028,599
PKGCurated Wealth Partners LLC$674,974,088

📑 Bill catalysts法案催化

Sector板块Bill法案Action进展
DefenseHRES13982026-06-30
SemiconductorsHR95422026-06-30
Technology / AIHR95012026-06-29
TradeHR78902026-06-29
DefenseHR94952026-06-26
FinancialsHR88842026-06-25
FinancialsHR82782026-06-24
HealthcareHR94182026-06-24

🏗️ Federal grants / loans联邦补助/贷款 CHIPS·DOE·IRA

Ticker标的Amount金额Accel加速
RIVN$333,365,319
ALB$8,998,861 1.7×
INTC$7,937,735 0.1×
BA$6,540,488 0.3×
GEV$5,696,134 0.6×
IONQ$5,613,017 0.2×
MU$4,694,384 3.8×
NOC$1,398,803 1.5×
TLN$245,334 0.3×
LDOS$10,532

💊 FDA catalystsFDA催化

Ticker标的Event事件Drug药物
MRK Label exp.适应症扩展 KEYTRUDA QLEX
NVS Label exp.适应症扩展 KISQALI FEMARA CO-PACK (COPACKAGED)
PFE Label exp.适应症扩展 IBRANCE
GSK New approval新批准 UTEBZI
AZN Label exp.适应症扩展 TRUQAP
ABBV Label exp.适应症扩展 LINZESS
RHHBY Label exp.适应症扩展 PERJETA
BMY Label exp.适应症扩展 ONUREG
BIIB Label exp.适应症扩展 SPINRAZA

🧬 Phase-3 pipeline三期管线

Ticker标的P3 starts三期启动Halts中止
AZN23 1
GSK14
NVO10 1
PFE10 1
NVS10 7
MRK8 2
LLY7
AMGN6 1
REGN5 1
ABBV4 2

📄 Material 8-K clusters重大8-K集群 30d

Ticker标的Count数量Items条目
NWS188.01
JPM45.02, 7.01, 8.01
MSTR45.02, 7.01, 8.01
O41.01, 2.03, 8.01
PSA41.01, 2.03, 5.02, 7.01
PSKY47.01, 8.01
QBTS47.01
ASPI31.01, 7.01, 8.01
AVAV35.02, 7.01
BLD31.01, 2.01, 2.03, 5.02, 7.01, 8.01

🧲 Unusual options flow异常期权流

Ticker标的Vol/OI ×量/持仓×Lean倾向
FHN 6.7× call-skew
EQT 6.4× put-skew
NXE 6.0× put-skew
PYPL 5.2× call-skew
CLX 4.3× call-skew
POWL 4.2× call-skew
IBM 4.0× balanced
SGML 4.0× call-skew
UROY 3.9× put-skew
ROST 3.9× put-skew

🤖 AI model adoptionAI模型采用 HF dl WoW

Ticker标的Downloads下载量WoW周环比
GOOGL255,814,012 +12.3%
NVDA38,222,539 +8.5%
IBM11,729,094 +6.3%
MSFT30,674,830 +4.8%
META100,243,037 +1.3%
BABA205,712,997 +0.2%
AMZN24,912,233 -2.2%
CRM5,990,344 -5.4%
AAPL4,331,104 -20.9%

Developer adoption开发者采用 GitHub stars WoW

Ticker标的Stars星标WoW周环比
NET14,868 +0.78%
IBM7,602 +0.46%
GTLB24,584 +0.43%
SNOW338 +0.3%
DDOG3,673 +0.27%
AMD6,689 +0.25%
ESTC77,649 +0.24%
MSFT187,623 +0.21%
NVDA17,775 +0.17%
PLTR21,923 +0.14%

📰 Bullish news flow看多新闻流

Ticker标的Bullish看多占比Articles文章
NVMI100%8
POWL100%12
MCHP92%50
MMC92%13
CINF91%11
PWR91%34
AIT90%10
CRDO90%50
PH90%50
TMO90%50
🟥 Donald Trump trades特朗普交易 · 562 🏛️ Congress trading国会交易 · 99,119 🏛️ Senate trading参议院交易 · 4,647 🏛️ House trading众议院交易 · 4,945 📜 Government contracts政府合同 · 13,665 💼 Corporate lobbying企业游说 · 20,399 🌑 Off-exchange / dark pool场外/暗池 · 32,874 👔 Insider trading内部人交易 · 35,718 🏦 Institutional 13F机构13F · 107,544 🏦 13F position changes13F持仓变化 · 104,912 📺 CNBC stock picksCNBC选股 · 633 🦍 WallStreetBetsWSB热度 · 6,754 🐦 Twitter following推特关注 · 1 🛰️ SPAC sentimentSPAC情绪 · 2 🔬 US patents美国专利 · 4,341 ✈️ Corporate flights企业航班 · 53 💸 Corporate donors企业捐赠 · 1,614 📰 Quiver news feedQuiver新闻 · 940 📁 Congress holdings国会持仓 · 4,554 📑 Bill summaries法案摘要 · 1,017 📱 App ratings应用评分 · 60,308 🏛️ Top shareholders主要股东 · 113,082 💰 Executive comp高管薪酬 · 1,212

Sources: Quiver Quantitative + federal grants/loans (USAspending) · SEC 8-K material events · openFDA approvals · ClinicalTrials.gov · Polygon options/news · Finnhub · Hugging Face · GitHub + curated influence graph. Public-record alt-data; the actionable axis is calibrated by the falsifiable ledger, not assumed right.数据来源:Quiver Quantitative + 联邦补助/贷款(USAspending)· SEC 8-K 重大事件 · openFDA 批准 · ClinicalTrials.gov · Polygon 期权/新闻 · Finnhub · Hugging Face · GitHub + 精选影响力图谱。公开记录替代数据;可操作轴由可证伪战绩校准,而非假定正确。

📊 Desk scorecard — is this desk beating the market?研究台记分卡 —— 本台是否跑赢大盘? every name this desk surfaces is graded against realized SPY-relative forward returns · context-only 本台每个入选标的均以实际相对标普前瞻收益评分 · 仅作参考

Measuring测量中matured observations accruing; no horizon has cleared the significance bar yet. 到期观测持续累积;尚无周期通过显著性检验。 686 live snapshots · 74 departures tracked 686 条在册快照 · 已追踪 74 次离场
Horizon周期 n样本 IC · levelIC · 水平 IC · velocityIC · 速度 on-desk在台 departed离台 coverage覆盖 status状态
5d 260 -0.029~ -2.9% +2.1% 68.8% measuring测量中
10d 0 0.0% measuring测量中
20d 0 measuring测量中
30d 0 measuring测量中
60d 0 measuring测量中
90d 0 measuring测量中

~ = provisional pooled IC (single cross-section); the daily Newey-West HAC IC that the "proven" gate trusts needs ≥6 grading dates. Velocity IC = the change in the desk's own score, the owner's second axis. ~ = 暂定合并信息系数(单一横截面);"已验证"门槛所依赖的日度 Newey-West HAC 信息系数需≥6个评分日。速度信息系数 = 本台评分自身的变化,即所有者的第二维度。

Notes & lessons笔记与经验 — what we've learned, so the desk's engine keeps improving as data accrues—— 已学到的经验,使本台引擎随数据累积持续改进

  • 2026-07-04 PRICE LESSON: grade off data/yahoo/<T>.parquet adjusted closes ONLY. The S&P-1500 breadth close cache (data/breadth/_closes_cache.parquet) is SPLIT-CORRUPTED — using it silently poisons every RS / forward-return number. A name missing from yahoo is a coverage skip here, never a wrong return.PRICE LESSON: grade off data/yahoo/<T>.parquet adjusted closes ONLY. The S&P-1500 breadth close cache (data/breadth/_closes_cache.parquet) is SPLIT-CORRUPTED — using it silently poisons every RS / forward-return number. A name missing from yahoo is a coverage skip here, never a wrong return.

A falsifiable scorecard of this desk's own surfaced names — its ranking score (level AND velocity) graded against realized SPY-relative forward returns at 5/10/20/30/60/90 trading days, split on-desk vs after-leaving. A signal is 'proven' only past n>=40 with a significant Newey-West t of the right sign; a significant negative IC is an 'alarm'. Context-only — nothing here sizes a position.

📰 News on these names这些标的的新闻 the demand-side tape beside the supply-side signal — context only, never blended需求侧舆情与供给侧信号并列——仅作背景,绝不混合

Loading…加载中…