MCD McDonald's · $267.71 Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势 Terminal终端 ↗

McDonald's · Consumer Disc.

MCD

$267.71

McDonald's Corporation is an American multinational fast food restaurant chain. As of 2024, it is the second-largest by number of locations in the world, behind the Chinese chain Mixue Ice Cream & Tea.麦当劳公司是一家美国跨国快餐连锁餐厅。截至2024年，它是全球门店数量第二大的快餐连锁店，仅次于中国连锁品牌蜜雪冰城。

Cyclical周期股 Large cap大盘 $190B

Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20

Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势

Daily low forming, but the bigger trend is still bearish. Small size only; stop below 264.54.日线低点正在形成，但大趋势仍偏空。只适合小仓位；止损设于 264.54 下方。

Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗ All coverage所有股票 Data through数据截至 2026-07-20 · regenerated nightly每日更新

Price Chart价格图表

Full chart in Terminal终端完整图表 ↗

Key Statistics关键统计

Price价格

$267.71

20.5% below 52-week high低于52周高点 20.5%

Market Cap市值

$190B

Normal volume正常成交量

P/E Ratio市盈率

22.2x

20.2x sector median

Forward P/E预测市盈率

18.9x

EPS每股收益 $12.05

Beta贝塔

-0.00

Moves about -0.0x the market波动幅度约为市场的 -0.0 倍

Dividend Yield股息收益率

2.78%

RSI (14)RSI（14）

Neutral zone中性区域

Next Earnings下次财报

2026-08-05 (17d)

Volatility Rank波动率分位

100th pctile

hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数

Short Interest空头兴趣

1.6% of float

Performance价格表现

Period周期	MCD	S&P 500	vs Index对比指数
1 Week近1周	-2.5%	-1.5%	In line with the index与指数基本持平
1 Month近1月	-5.7%	+0.6%	Lagged the index by 6.3 points落后指数 6.3 个百分点
3 Months近3月	-13.4%	+4.7%	Lagged the index by 18.1 points落后指数 18.1 个百分点
6 Months近6月	-11.8%	+7.8%	Lagged the index by 19.6 points落后指数 19.6 个百分点
Year to date年初至今	-10.6%	+9.1%	Lagged the index by 19.7 points落后指数 19.7 个百分点
1 Year近1年	-8.7%	+19.4%	Lagged the index by 28.1 points落后指数 28.1 个百分点
3 Years近3年	-2.2%	+69.4%	Lagged the index by 71.6 points落后指数 71.6 个百分点
5 Years近5年	+27.9%	+83.9%	Lagged the index by 56.0 points落后指数 56.0 个百分点

Technicals技术面

Active signals活跃信号

MA Sell (7)Short-term Falling Trend1-Day Return (cross-sectional rank → top/bottom gainers)Valuation cheapness percentile (0–1, higher = cheaper vs peers)Insider Power (0–100) — quality-weighted Form-4 open-market trades (role × size × recency); 50 = neutral

RSI (14)RSI（14） 43 Neutral zone中性区域

vs 50-day相对50日均线 -3.1% vs 50-day avg

vs 200-day相对200日均线 -10.5% vs 200-day avg

Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度（ADX） 14 No clear trend无明显趋势

Volatility rank波动率分位 100th percentile 分位

Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议

Buy zone买入区间

$262.10

Don't chase above不追高于

$267.70

Stop止损

$264.50

Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望

Earnings财务业绩

days until next report天后公布财报

2026-08-05

Estimates being cut预期下调

Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线

Valuation估值

Multiple指标	MCD	Sector median行业中位	Cheaper than相对便宜
P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史）	22.21x	20.23	42%
P/E (forward)市盈率（预测）	18.9x	—	—
P/S市销率	7.07x	1.23	1%
Earnings yield盈利收益率	4.50%	4.53	48%
FCF yield自由现金流收益率	3.78%	5.69	33%
Shareholder yield股东收益率	3.77%	4.31	44%
EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA	17.91x	11.48	24%
P/FCF市值/自由现金流	26.47x	16.53	27%

Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线

Financials财务数据

Revenue营业收入

$19.2B

2020

$23.2B

2021

$23.2B

2022

$25.5B

2023

$25.9B

2024

$26.9B

2025

5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 7.0%

Earnings Per Share每股收益

$6.31

2020

$10.04

2021

$8.33

2022

$11.56

2023

$11.39

2024

$11.95

2025

5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 13.6%

Free Cash Flow自由现金流

$4.6B

2020

$7.1B

2021

$5.5B

2022

$7.3B

2023

$6.7B

2024

$7.2B

2025

Margins利润率

Operating margin营业利润率

46.1%

Net margin净利率

31.9%

FCF margin自由现金流利润率

39.2%

-478.1%Return on Equity股本回报率

14.4%Return on Assets资产回报率

Leverage杠杆

Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA	3.11
Current ratio流动比率	0.95

Capital Allocation资本配置

Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）	$2.1B
Stock-based comp股权薪酬	$165.0M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）	-0.6%

Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 4/7 Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (4.7) Clean稳健

Snapshot Gauges综合指标

Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业

Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵

Cheaper than 25% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 25% 的公司

Beta市场敏感度

-0.00×

0.21×3×

Has tended to move opposite the market (factor-adjusted)经因子调整后常与大盘反向波动

Financial Health财务健康

4/7

Altman阿尔特曼: safe

Weak financial health财务健康状况偏弱

Dividend分红

2.78%

Pays a dividend (2.78% yield)有分红（收益率 2.78%）

Why Is It Moving为何波动

Sector / Theme行业/主题 Consumer Discretionary (Equal-Weight) theme — #34 of 46 themes「非必需消费（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 34 位

Macro宏观 Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。

Positioning持仓 Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易

Technical技术面 MCD broke down vs the marketMCD 相对市场走弱

Options Positioning期权持仓

Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大

Expected daily move预期日波动

±1.75%

Expected weekly move预期周波动

±3.90%

Call wall看涨密集区

$285

Put wall看跌密集区

$260

Gamma flip伽玛翻转

$268

25d risk reversal25d风险逆转

0.4%

Skew: 偏斜：balanced

Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱

Insider activity内部人员活动: -$37.3M net (0 buyers, 8 sellers)-$37.3M 净值（0 买家，8 卖家）

Concentrated ownership集中持仓

Fund基金	Grade评级	Activity动作	% of portfolio组合占比	As of截至
Soros Fund Management	B	New position新建仓	0.5%	2026-03-31
Viking Global (Halvorsen)	B	Holding持有	3.1%	2026-03-31
Gates Foundation Trust	D	Holding持有	0.3%	2026-03-31

Signal History信号历史

TOPPING → UNCONFIRMED TURN做顶中 → 未确认转向

HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY. A daily bottoming setup is forming (swing low in, momentum turned up) — but the higher timeframes haven't confirmed it: the bigger picture is still bearish (weekly momentum negative; investor cycle failed (broke its start low); last cycle left-translated (topped early)). This is an UNCONFIRMED TURN, not a confirmed buy. Weekly confirmation lags price, so this exact reading covers BOTH bounces that fail AND the first leg of a genuine new cycle — you can't tell which in real time, so treat it as a risk/size signal, not a direction call. Measured: weekly-unconfirmed bottoming setups held the low ~49% of the time vs ~68% once the weekly turns up. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell高风险 · 仅限灵活操作。正在形成日线筑底形态（摆动低点已现、动量转向上行）——但更高周期尚未确认：大局仍偏空（周线动量为负；投资者周期失败（跌破起始低点）；上一周期左移（见顶偏早））。这是「未确认转向」，并非已确认的买入。周线确认滞后于价格，因此同样的读数既涵盖最终失败的反弹，也涵盖真正新周期的第一段——实时无法判定属于哪一种，故应将其视为风险/仓位信号，而非方向判断。实测：周线未确认的筑底形态约 49% 守住低点，周线转向后升至约 68%。上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号

COUNTERTREND BOUNCE UNCONFIRMED TURN

Jul 17, 2026

MCD broke down vs the marketMCD 相对市场走弱

Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $267.71.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$267.71。

Jul 15, 2026

NEARING A LOW → TOPPING接近低点 → 做顶中

SELL SETUP卖出预备

Jul 14, 2026

MCD broke down vs the marketMCD 相对市场走弱

Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $268.94.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$268.94。

Jul 14, 2026

MCD daily MACD crossed downMCD 日线MACD下穿

The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $268.94.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$268.94。

Jul 10, 2026

NEARING A HIGH → NEARING A LOW接近高点 → 接近低点

GET READY准备

Jul 10, 2026

MCD broke down vs the marketMCD 相对市场走弱

Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $274.60.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$274.60。

Jul 9, 2026

BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点

TAKE PROFITS止盈

Jul 2, 2026

DOWNTREND → BOTTOMING下跌趋势 → 筑底中

BUY SETUP买入预备

Jul 2, 2026

MCD daily MACD crossed upMCD 日线MACD上穿

The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $280.63.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$280.63。

Jun 30, 2026

MCD StochRSI turned up from oversoldMCD StochRSI自超卖区上行

StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $270.31.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$270.31。