RCL
Royal Caribbean Group
·
$286.96
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
Terminal终端 ↗
Royal Caribbean Group · Consumer Disc.
RCL
$286.96
Royal Caribbean Group, formerly known as Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., is a cruise holding company headquartered in Miami, Florida, United States and incorporated in Liberia. It is the world's second-largest cruise line operator, after Carnival Corporation & plc.RoyalCaribbeanGroup前身为皇家加勒比邮轮有限公司，是一家邮轮控股公司，总部位于美国佛罗里达州迈阿密，并在利比里亚注册。它是全球第二大邮轮运营商，仅次于嘉年华公司。
Rate-sensitive利率敏感
Large cap大盘
$78B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
You missed the bottoming entry — the low already formed and price is now extended (momentum is fading — the 3-day/weekly已错过筑底入场——低点已经形成，目前价格已拉伸（动量正在衰竭——3 日/周线动量已向下交叉）。不要追高；等待回调至 10 日均线或下一个周期低点。若已持有则继续持有。
Price Chart价格图表
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$286.96
20.2% below 52-week high低于52周高点 20.2%
Market Cap市值
$78B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
18.2x
20.2x sector median
Forward P/E预测市盈率
14.3x
EPS每股收益 $15.78
Beta贝塔
1.73
Moves about 1.7x the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.7 倍
Dividend Yield股息收益率
1.74%
RSI (14)RSI（14）
47
Neutral zone中性区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-08-04 (16d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
27th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
4.7% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | RCL | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +0.6% | -1.5% | Beat the index by 2.1 points跑赢指数 2.1 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | -4.8% | +0.6% | Lagged the index by 5.4 points落后指数 5.4 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | +1.0% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 3.7 points落后指数 3.7 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | +5.1% | +7.8% | Lagged the index by 2.7 points落后指数 2.7 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | +2.4% | +9.1% | Lagged the index by 6.7 points落后指数 6.7 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | -16.3% | +19.4% | Lagged the index by 35.7 points落后指数 35.7 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | +197.0% | +69.4% | Beat the index by 127.6 points跑赢指数 127.6 个百分点 |
| 5 Years近5年 | +307.6% | +83.9% | Beat the index by 223.7 points跑赢指数 223.7 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
Active signals活跃信号
MA Sell (7)1-Day Return (cross-sectional rank → top/bottom gainers)Valuation cheapness percentile (0–1, higher = cheaper vs peers)Insider Power (0–100) — quality-weighted Form-4 open-market trades (role × size × recency); 50 = neutralInsider Sell signal — fires when Insider Power ≤ 40 (net selling on quality-weighted basis)
RSI (14)RSI（14）
47
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线
+0.4% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+0.9% vs 200-day avg
Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度（ADX）
12
No clear trend无明显趋势
Volatility rank波动率分位
27th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$278.65
Don't chase above不追高于
$287.00
Stop止损
$280.90
Extended — wait for a pullback过度拉伸 — 等待回撤
Earnings财务业绩
16
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-08-04
Estimates being cut预期下调
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | RCL | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 18.19x | 20.23 | 57% |
| P/E (forward)市盈率（预测） | 14.3x | — | — |
| P/B市净率 | 7.73x | 2.97 | 20% |
| P/S市销率 | 4.33x | 1.23 | 6% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 5.50% | 4.53 | 62% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 1.59% | 5.69 | 14% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 1.49% | 4.31 | 17% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 12.07x | 11.48 | 44% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 62.81x | 16.53 | 7% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 52.0%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
42.5%Return on Equity股本回报率
10.3%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | 0.36 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 0.18 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $1.2B |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $175.0M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | +0.5% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 6/7
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: grey (2.2)
Clean稳健
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵
Cheaper than 28% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 28% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
1.73×
0.21×3×
Moves about 1.7× the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.7 倍
Financial Health财务健康
6/7
Altman阿尔特曼: grey
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
1.74%
Pays a dividend (1.74% yield)有分红（收益率 1.74%）
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Travel & Experiences theme — #19 of 46 themes「旅行与体验」主题 — 46 个主题中第 19 位
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
Golden cross on RCLRCL 金叉
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±3.37%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±7.53%
Call wall看涨密集区
$310
Put wall看跌密集区
$290
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-3.5%
Flow资金流向
$4M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 28 fresh positions; P/C 2.01; ~leans bearish/hedging (direction approx)成交权利金 $4M；0DTE占0%；28个新建仓；看跌看涨比 2.01；≈偏看跌/对冲（方向近似）
Skew: 偏斜：fear
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$627.0M net (0 buyers, 7 sellers)-$627.0M 净值（0 买家，7 卖家）
Signal History信号历史
TOP WATCH
NEARING A HIGH
Jul 16, 2026
Golden cross on RCLRCL 金叉
The 50-day average crossed above the 200-day — a slow, widely-watched bullish trend signal. $293.95.50日均线上穿200日均线 — 一个滞后但广受关注的看多趋势信号。$293.95。
Jul 15, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 15, 2026
RCL reclaimed its 200-day averageRCL 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $292.17.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$292.17。
Jul 15, 2026
RCL StochRSI turned up from oversoldRCL StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $292.17.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$292.17。
Jul 14, 2026
RCL lost its 200-day averageRCL 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $283.09.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$283.09。
Jul 9, 2026
RCL reclaimed its 200-day averageRCL 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $288.08.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$288.08。
Jul 7, 2026
RCL lost its 200-day averageRCL 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $282.26.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$282.26。
Jul 2, 2026
RCL daily MACD crossed downRCL 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $296.30.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$296.30。
Jul 1, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 2825 signals条信号
Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.32
Value价值
-0.6
Quality质量
+0.4
Investment资本投入
-0.2
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.7
Low volatility低波动
-0.6
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-1.2
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.1
Short interest空头兴趣
-0.0
Company Profile公司档案
Royal Caribbean Group, formerly known as Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., is a cruise holding company headquartered in Miami, Florida, United States and incorporated in Liberia. It is the world's second-largest cruise line operator, after Carnival Corporation & plc.RoyalCaribbeanGroup前身为皇家加勒比邮轮有限公司，是一家邮轮控股公司，总部位于美国佛罗里达州迈阿密，并在利比里亚注册。它是全球第二大邮轮运营商，仅次于嘉年华公司。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Capital intensity rising
Get the full picture获取完整视图
Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。