CarMax, Inc. · Consumer Disc.
KMX
$57.33
CarMax, Inc. is a used vehicle retailer based in the United States.CarMax,Inc.是一家总部位于美国的二手车零售商。
Distressed困境股
Mid cap中盘
$8B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
You missed the bottoming entry — the low already formed and price is now extended (momentum is fading — the daily moment已错过筑底入场——低点已经形成，目前价格已拉伸（动量正在衰竭——日线动量已开始掉头向下）。不要追高；等待回调至 10 日均线或下一个周期低点。若已持有则继续持有。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$57.33
9.8% below 52-week high低于52周高点 9.8%
Market Cap市值
$8B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
33.2x
20.2x sector median
Beta贝塔
1.43
Moves about 1.4x the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.4 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
66
Elevated偏高
Volatility Rank波动率分位
63th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
8.8% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | KMX | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +7.2% | -1.5% | Beat the index by 8.7 points跑赢指数 8.7 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | +20.9% | +0.6% | Beat the index by 20.3 points跑赢指数 20.3 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | +40.2% | +4.7% | Beat the index by 35.5 points跑赢指数 35.5 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | +17.4% | +7.8% | Beat the index by 9.6 points跑赢指数 9.6 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | +45.9% | +9.1% | Beat the index by 36.8 points跑赢指数 36.8 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | -7.9% | +19.4% | Lagged the index by 27.3 points落后指数 27.3 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | -33.2% | +69.4% | Lagged the index by 102.6 points落后指数 102.6 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
66
Elevated偏高
vs 50-day相对50日均线
+21.3% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+33.1% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
63th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$53.69
Don't chase above不追高于
$57.33
Stop止损
$47.43
Extended — wait for a pullback过度拉伸 — 等待回撤
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates being raised — 9 analysts预期上调 — 9 位分析师
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | KMX | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 33.21x | 20.23 | 20% |
| P/S市销率 | 0.32x | 1.23 | 89% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 3.01% | 4.53 | 28% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 15.15% | 5.69 | 94% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 7.84% | 4.31 | 80% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 6.60x | 16.53 | 93% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 6.4%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: -18.0%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
1.0%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Current ratio流动比率 | 2.20 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $642.8M |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $99.0M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | -7.0% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 6/9
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: distress (1.6)
Watch关注
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜
Cheaper than 68% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 68% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
1.43×
0.21×3×
Moves about 1.4× the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.4 倍
Financial Health财务健康
6/9
Altman阿尔特曼: distress
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Short interest changed -15.6%空头仓位变动 -15.6%
Technical技术面
KMX daily MACD crossed upKMX 日线MACD上穿
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: +$0.6M net (2 buyers, 0 sellers)+$0.6M 净值（2 买家，0 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Activity动作 | % of portfolio组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starboard Value | B | New position新建仓 | 5.6% | 2026-03-31 |
| Akre Capital Management | C | exitexit | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal History信号历史
TOP WATCH
NEARING A HIGH
Jul 15, 2026
KMX daily MACD crossed upKMX 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $58.94.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$58.94。
Jul 15, 2026
KMX RSI reached overboughtKMX RSI进入超买
RSI(14) crossed above 70 — stretched to the upside; context, not a timing trigger alone. $58.94.RSI(14)上穿70 — 上行过度；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$58.94。
Jul 13, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 10, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 10, 2026
KMX took relative-strength leadershipKMX 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $53.49.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$53.49。
Jul 10, 2026
KMX StochRSI turned up from oversoldKMX StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $53.49.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$53.49。
Jul 1, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jun 30, 2026
UPTREND → NEARING A HIGH上涨趋势 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jun 30, 2026
KMX daily MACD crossed downKMX 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $52.89.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$52.89。
Jun 29, 2026
Golden cross on KMXKMX 金叉
The 50-day average crossed above the 200-day — a slow, widely-watched bullish trend signal. $53.15.50日均线上穿200日均线 — 一个滞后但广受关注的看多趋势信号。$53.15。
Jun 25, 2026
NEARING A LOW → UPTREND接近低点 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 242 signals条信号
Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.25
Value价值
+1.5
Profitability盈利能力
-1.2
Quality质量
+0.3
Investment资本投入
+0.9
Shareholder payout股东回报
+1.0
Low volatility低波动
-1.1
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-0.8
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.2
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.2
Company Profile公司档案
CarMax, Inc. is a used vehicle retailer based in the United States.CarMax,Inc.是一家总部位于美国的二手车零售商。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Receivables stretch
- Capital intensity rising
Get the full picture获取完整视图
Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。