NCLH
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings
·
$19.46
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
Terminal终端 ↗
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings · Consumer Disc.
NCLH
$19.46
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) is a holding company that is based in the United States and domiciled in Bermuda.挪威邮轮控股有限公司是一家注册于百慕大、总部位于美国的控股公司。
Distressed困境股
Mid cap中盘
$9B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
Stretched/late — protect gains and don't start new positions; let the next low set up first.已拉伸／晚期——保护利润，不要新开仓；先等下一个低点构筑成形。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$19.46
27.8% below 52-week high低于52周高点 27.8%
Market Cap市值
$9B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
20.9x
20.2x sector median
Beta贝塔
2.11
Moves about 2.1x the market波动幅度约为市场的 2.1 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
49
Neutral zone中性区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-07-30 (11d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
28th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
18.6% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | NCLH | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -0.8% | -1.5% | In line with the index与指数基本持平 |
| 1 Month近1月 | -1.9% | +0.6% | Lagged the index by 2.5 points落后指数 2.5 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | -7.3% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 12.0 points落后指数 12.0 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | -11.6% | +7.8% | Lagged the index by 19.4 points落后指数 19.4 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | -14.6% | +9.1% | Lagged the index by 23.7 points落后指数 23.7 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | -17.5% | +19.4% | Lagged the index by 36.9 points落后指数 36.9 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
49
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线
+4.5% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
-5.1% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
28th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$19.38
Don't chase above不追高于
$19.46
Stop止损
$18.47
Extended — wait for a pullback过度拉伸 — 等待回撤
Earnings财务业绩
11
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-07-30
Estimates being cut预期下调
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | NCLH | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 20.93x | 20.23 | 47% |
| P/B市净率 | 4.01x | 2.97 | 39% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 4.78% | 4.53 | 53% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | -13.20% | 5.69 | 1% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 3.18x | 11.48 | 97% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 50.3%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
19.2%Return on Equity股本回报率
1.9%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | -0.08 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 0.21 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $88.4M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | +3.5% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 5/8
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: distress (0.3)
Warning警示
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理
Cheaper than 46% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 46% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
2.11×
0.21×3×
Moves about 2.1× the market波动幅度约为市场的 2.1 倍
Financial Health财务健康
5/8
Altman阿尔特曼: distress
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Travel & Experiences theme — #19 of 46 themes「旅行与体验」主题 — 46 个主题中第 19 位
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
NCLH StochRSI turned up from oversoldNCLH StochRSI自超卖区上行
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±3.78%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±8.46%
Call wall看涨密集区
$21
Put wall看跌密集区
$18
Gamma flip伽玛翻转
$20
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-0.2%
Flow资金流向
$1M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 11 fresh positions; P/C 1.22; ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $1M；0DTE占0%；11个新建仓；看跌看涨比 1.22；≈偏看涨（方向近似）
Skew: 偏斜：balanced
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: +$1.6M net (7 buyers, 1 sellers)+$1.6M 净值（7 买家，1 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Activity动作 | % of portfolio组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baupost Group (Klarman) | C | New position新建仓 | 1.3% | 2026-03-31 |
| Elliott Investment Management | C | New position新建仓 | 1.2% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal History信号历史
TOP WATCH
NEARING A HIGH
Jul 10, 2026
NCLH StochRSI turned up from oversoldNCLH StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $19.61.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$19.61。
Jul 2, 2026
NCLH daily MACD crossed downNCLH 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $19.78.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$19.78。
Jul 1, 2026
UPTREND → BOTTOMING上涨趋势 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 1, 2026
NCLH lost its 200-day averageNCLH 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $20.67.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$20.67。
Jun 24, 2026
NCLH reclaimed its 200-day averageNCLH 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $21.01.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$21.01。
Jun 19, 2026
NCLH weekly MACD crossed upNCLH 周线MACD上穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned positive — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转正 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Jun 11, 2026
NEARING A LOW → UPTREND接近低点 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
May 22, 2026
NCLH daily MACD crossed upNCLH 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $16.30.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$16.30。
Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 92 signals条信号
Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.17
Value价值
+0.1
Quality质量
+0.5
Investment资本投入
-0.3
Low volatility低波动
-1.0
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-1.7
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.5
Short interest空头兴趣
-1.3
Company Profile公司档案
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) is a holding company that is based in the United States and domiciled in Bermuda.挪威邮轮控股有限公司是一家注册于百慕大、总部位于美国的控股公司。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Receivables stretch
- Capital intensity rising
Get the full picture获取完整视图
Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。