Etsy · Consumer Disc.
ETSY
$84.10
Etsy, Inc. is an American e-commerce company focused on handmade or vintage items and craft supplies.Etsy公司是一家美国电商公司，专注于手工或复古商品及工艺用品。
Distressed困境股
Mid cap中盘
$8B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
You missed the bottoming entry — the low already formed and price is now extended (overbought (daily RSI 66, 3-day 71 & 已错过筑底入场——低点已经形成，目前价格已拉伸（已超买（日线 RSI 66、3 日 71 与周线 71））。不要追高；等待回调至 10 日均线或下一个周期低点。若已持有则继续持有。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$84.10
1.9% below 52-week high低于52周高点 1.9%
Market Cap市值
$8B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
50.1x
20.2x sector median
Beta贝塔
1.18
Moves about 1.2x the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.2 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
66
Elevated偏高
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-07-29 (10d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
37th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
14.2% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | ETSY | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +3.8% | -1.5% | Beat the index by 5.3 points跑赢指数 5.3 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | +15.5% | +0.6% | Beat the index by 14.9 points跑赢指数 14.9 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | +35.9% | +4.7% | Beat the index by 31.2 points跑赢指数 31.2 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | +36.2% | +7.8% | Beat the index by 28.4 points跑赢指数 28.4 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | +46.8% | +9.1% | Beat the index by 37.7 points跑赢指数 37.7 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | +45.1% | +19.4% | Beat the index by 25.7 points跑赢指数 25.7 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | -9.9% | +69.4% | Lagged the index by 79.3 points落后指数 79.3 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
66
Elevated偏高
vs 50-day相对50日均线
+19.6% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+37.2% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
37th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$79.41
Don't chase above不追高于
$84.10
Stop止损
$69.44
Extended — wait for a pullback过度拉伸 — 等待回撤
Earnings财务业绩
10
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-07-29
Estimates being raised — 24 analysts预期上调 — 24 位分析师
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | ETSY | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 50.06x | 20.23 | 9% |
| P/S市销率 | 2.83x | 1.23 | 17% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 2.00% | 4.53 | 19% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 8.31% | 5.69 | 74% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 9.52% | 4.31 | 85% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 24.72x | 11.48 | 10% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 12.04x | 16.53 | 71% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 10.8%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: -12.4%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
-14.8%Return on Equity股本回报率
5.8%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | 2.55 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 1.44 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $776.9M |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $244.7M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | -10.6% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 5/9
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: distress (1.6)
Clean稳健
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵
Cheaper than 28% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 28% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
1.18×
0.21×3×
Moves about 1.2× the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.2 倍
Financial Health财务健康
5/9
Altman阿尔特曼: distress
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
ETSY RSI reached overboughtETSY RSI进入超买
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$23.7M net (0 buyers, 8 sellers)-$23.7M 净值（0 买家，8 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Activity动作 | % of portfolio组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soros Fund Management | B | New position新建仓 | 0.1% | 2026-03-31 |
| Elliott Investment Management | C | Holding持有 | 1.2% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal History信号历史
TOP WATCH
NEARING A HIGH
Jul 15, 2026
ETSY RSI reached overboughtETSY RSI进入超买
RSI(14) crossed above 70 — stretched to the upside; context, not a timing trigger alone. $85.74.RSI(14)上穿70 — 上行过度；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$85.74。
Jul 14, 2026
ETSY made a new 52-week highETSY 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $83.06.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$83.06。
Jul 13, 2026
ETSY daily MACD crossed upETSY 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $80.53.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$80.53。
Jul 10, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 10, 2026
ETSY made a new 52-week highETSY 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $81.05.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$81.05。
Jul 7, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 7, 2026
ETSY StochRSI turned up from oversoldETSY StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $77.59.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$77.59。
Jul 6, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 2, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 2, 2026
ETSY took relative-strength leadershipETSY 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $76.97.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$76.97。
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Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.68
Value价值
-1.1
Profitability盈利能力
+2.4
Quality质量
+3.0
Investment资本投入
-0.5
Shareholder payout股东回报
+1.4
Low volatility低波动
-1.1
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-0.5
Earnings quality盈利质量
+2.6
Short interest空头兴趣
-0.9
Company Profile公司档案
Etsy, Inc. is an American e-commerce company focused on handmade or vintage items and craft supplies.Etsy公司是一家美国电商公司，专注于手工或复古商品及工艺用品。
Get the full picture获取完整视图
Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。