Chipotle Mexican Grill · Consumer Disc.
CMG
$34.44
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., also known simply as Chipotle, is an American multinational chain of fast casual restaurants specializing in bowls, tacos, and Mission burritos made to order in front of the customer. As of December 2025, Chipotle has 4,000...ChipotleMexicanGrill,Inc.，简称Chipotle，是一家美国跨国快速休闲餐饮连锁店，专营在顾客面前现做的碗装食品、玉米卷和Mission风格卷饼。截至2025年12月，Chipotle拥有4000家门店。
Broken growth成长受损
Large cap大盘
$45B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
The bottoming setup is not yet confirmed (price still below the 10-day average) and oscillators are already extended/ove筑底形态尚未确认（价格仍位于 10 日均线下方），且摆动指标已过热——此处入场风险较高。等待价格收复 10 日均线且动量趋于稳定后再考虑建仓。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$34.44
36.1% below 52-week high低于52周高点 36.1%
Market Cap市值
$45B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
29.2x
20.2x sector median
Beta贝塔
0.83
Moves about 0.8x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.8 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
54
Neutral zone中性区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-07-29 (10d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
83th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
4.0% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | CMG | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -2.3% | -1.5% | In line with the index与指数基本持平 |
| 1 Month近1月 | +8.1% | +0.6% | Beat the index by 7.5 points跑赢指数 7.5 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | -3.9% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 8.6 points落后指数 8.6 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | -13.8% | +7.8% | Lagged the index by 21.6 points落后指数 21.6 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | -8.1% | +9.1% | Lagged the index by 17.2 points落后指数 17.2 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | -35.7% | +19.4% | Lagged the index by 55.1 points落后指数 55.1 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
54
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线
+5.8% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
-2.3% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
83th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$33.83
Don't chase above不追高于
$34.44
Stop止损
$30.54
Extended — wait for a pullback过度拉伸 — 等待回撤
Earnings财务业绩
10
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-07-29
Estimates being cut预期下调
Post-earnings drift: -9.4% (20d)财报后漂移：-9.4%（20日）
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | CMG | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 29.20x | 20.23 | 25% |
| P/B市净率 | 15.85x | 2.97 | 10% |
| P/S市销率 | 3.76x | 1.23 | 8% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 3.42% | 4.53 | 33% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 3.23% | 5.69 | 27% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 5.41% | 4.31 | 65% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 19.37x | 11.48 | 16% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 30.99x | 16.53 | 21% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 14.8%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: -38.1%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
54.3%Return on Equity股本回报率
17.1%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | -0.15 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 1.23 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $2.4B |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $119.5M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | -3.9% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 5/7
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (6.5)
Clean稳健
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵
Cheaper than 17% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 17% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
0.83×
0.21×3×
Moves about 0.8× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.8 倍
Financial Health财务健康
5/7
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Consumer Discretionary (Equal-Weight) theme — #34 of 46 themes「非必需消费（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 34 位
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
CMG lost its 200-day averageCMG 跌破200日均线
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±3.26%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±7.29%
Call wall看涨密集区
$37
Put wall看跌密集区
$32
Gamma flip伽玛翻转
$34
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
7.0%
Skew: 偏斜：greed
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$7.2M net (0 buyers, 2 sellers)-$7.2M 净值（0 买家，2 卖家）
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Activity动作 | % of portfolio组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Third Point (Loeb) | B | exitexit | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
| Duquesne Family Office (Druckenmiller) | C | exitexit | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal History信号历史
TURN SIGNALED
BOTTOMING
Jul 15, 2026
CMG lost its 200-day averageCMG 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $34.63.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$34.63。
Jul 13, 2026
BOTTOMING → BUY ZONE筑底中 → 买入区
BUY买入
Jul 13, 2026
CMG reclaimed its 200-day averageCMG 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $36.63.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$36.63。
Jul 10, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 9, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 7, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 6, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jun 26, 2026
UPTREND → BOTTOMING上涨趋势 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 80 signals条信号
Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.14
Value价值
-0.8
Quality质量
+0.6
Investment资本投入
+0.6
Shareholder payout股东回报
+0.3
Low volatility低波动
-0.1
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+0.0
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.3
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.8
Company Profile公司档案
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., also known simply as Chipotle, is an American multinational chain of fast casual restaurants specializing in bowls, tacos, and Mission burritos made to order in front of the customer. As of December 2025, Chipotle has 4,000...ChipotleMexicanGrill,Inc.，简称Chipotle，是一家美国跨国快速休闲餐饮连锁店，专营在顾客面前现做的碗装食品、玉米卷和Mission风格卷饼。截至2025年12月，Chipotle拥有4000家门店。
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