GRMN Garmin · $249.56 Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势 Terminal终端 ↗

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Garmin · Consumer Disc.

GRMN

$249.56
Garmin Ltd. is an American multinational technology company based in Olathe, Kansas.佳明公司（GarminLtd.）是一家总部位于堪萨斯州奥拉西的美国跨国科技公司。
Cyclical周期股 Large cap大盘 $48B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
The daily turn is already in — a low formed ~20 day(s) ago @ 231.89 and price is back above the 10-day average. What's m日线转向已经完成——低点于约 20 天前形成 @ 231.89，且价格已重新站上 10 日均线。尚缺的是周线周期的确认，因此这是当下可用的部分信心入场，而非待触发信号：可在此建半仓，或等待周线转向。
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Key Statistics关键统计

Price价格
$249.56
6.7% below 52-week high低于52周高点 6.7%
Market Cap市值
$48B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
28.9x
20.2x sector median
Beta贝塔
1.19
Moves about 1.2x the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.2 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
61
Elevated偏高
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-07-29 (10d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
24th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
2.2% of float

Performance价格表现

Period周期 GRMN S&P 500vs Index对比指数
1 Week近1周 +2.7% -1.5% Beat the index by 4.2 points跑赢指数 4.2 个百分点
1 Month近1月 +7.6% +0.6% Beat the index by 7.0 points跑赢指数 7.0 个百分点
3 Months近3月 -6.7% +4.7% Lagged the index by 11.4 points落后指数 11.4 个百分点
6 Months近6月 +18.3% +7.8% Beat the index by 10.5 points跑赢指数 10.5 个百分点
Year to date年初至今 +23.7% +9.1% Beat the index by 14.6 points跑赢指数 14.6 个百分点
1 Year近1年 +12.0% +19.4% Lagged the index by 7.4 points落后指数 7.4 个百分点

Technicals技术面

RSI (14)RSI（14） 61 Elevated偏高
vs 50-day相对50日均线 +4.9% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线 +9.3% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位 24th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$247.50
Don't chase above不追高于
$251.20
Stop止损
$231.90
Cycle turn — awaiting confluence cross周期拐点 — 等待共振交叉确认

Earnings财务业绩

10
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-07-29

Estimates being cut预期下调

Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线

Valuation估值

Multiple指标 GRMN Sector median行业中位 Cheaper than相对便宜
P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） 28.89x 20.23
26%
P/B市净率 5.36x 2.97
28%
P/S市销率 6.63x 1.23
3%
Earnings yield盈利收益率 3.46% 4.53
35%
FCF yield自由现金流收益率 2.84% 5.69
23%
EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA 22.57x 11.48
13%
P/FCF市值/自由现金流 35.27x 16.53
17%
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线

Financials财务数据

Revenue营业收入
$4.2B
2020
$5.0B
2021
$4.9B
2022
$5.2B
2023
$6.3B
2024
$7.2B
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 11.6%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
$5.17
2020
$5.61
2021
$5.04
2022
$6.71
2023
$7.30
2024
$8.59
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 10.7%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
$949.9M
2020
$704.8M
2021
$544.0M
2022
$1.2B
2023
$1.2B
2024
$1.4B
2025
Margins利润率
Gross margin毛利率
58.7%
Operating margin营业利润率
25.9%
Net margin净利率
23.0%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
22.5%
18.5%Return on Equity股本回报率
15.1%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-1.12
Current ratio流动比率3.63
Capital Allocation资本配置
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$166.0M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+0.1%
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 6/8 Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (16.9) Clean稳健

Snapshot Gauges综合指标

Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵
Cheaper than 19% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 19% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
1.19×
0.21×3×
Moves about 1.2× the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.2 倍
Financial Health财务健康
6/8
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息

Why Is It Moving为何波动

Sector / Theme行业/主题 Consumer Discretionary (Equal-Weight) theme — #34 of 46 themes「非必需消费（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 34 位
Macro宏观 Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓 Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面 BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点

Options Positioning期权持仓

Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡

Expected daily move预期日波动
±2.54%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±5.68%
Call wall看涨密集区
$250
Put wall看跌密集区
$220
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-3.2%
Skew: 偏斜：fear

Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱

Insider activity内部人员活动: -$14.2M net (0 buyers, 8 sellers)-$14.2M 净值（0 买家，8 卖家）

Signal History信号历史

NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP. A new cycle low likely formed 20 day(s) ago (2026-06-17 @ 231.89): swing low in, price back above the 10-day average — but the weekly timeframe hasn't turned yet, so conviction is partial. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell买入预备。新的周期低点可能已在 20 天前形成 （2026-06-17 @ 231.89）：摆动低点已现，价格重新站上 10 日均线——但周线周期尚未转向，因此信心仅为部分。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
TURN SIGNALED BOTTOMING
Jul 13, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 9, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 8, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 6, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → BOTTOMING未确认转向 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jun 26, 2026
NEARING A LOW → UNCONFIRMED TURN接近低点 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jun 25, 2026
UPTREND → NEARING A LOW上涨趋势 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jun 22, 2026
NEARING A LOW → UPTREND接近低点 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有

Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 75 signals条信号

Factor Profile因子特征

Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.15
Value价值
-0.7
Profitability盈利能力
+0.4
Quality质量
-0.7
Investment资本投入
-0.3
Low volatility低波动
+0.5
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-0.5
Earnings quality盈利质量
-0.9
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.6

Company Profile公司档案

Garmin Ltd. is an American multinational technology company based in Olathe, Kansas.佳明公司（GarminLtd.）是一家总部位于堪萨斯州奥拉西的美国跨国科技公司。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
  • Receivables stretch
  • Capital intensity rising
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