Carnival Corporation · Consumer Disc.
CCL
$26.41
Carnival Corporation Ltd. is a Bermuda-domiciled American cruise line operator that owns more than 90 vessels across eight brands.嘉年华集团是一家注册于百慕大的美国邮轮运营商，旗下八个品牌拥有超过90艘邮轮。
Distressed困境股
Large cap大盘
$33B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
The bottoming setup is not yet confirmed (price still below the 10-day average) and the 3-day/weekly momentum has crosse筑底形态尚未确认（价格仍位于 10 日均线下方），且3 日/周线动量已向下交叉——动量在形态完成前已开始衰竭。等待价格收复 10 日均线且动量趋于稳定后再考虑建仓。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$26.41
21.5% below 52-week high低于52周高点 21.5%
Market Cap市值
$33B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
11.8x
20.2x sector median
Beta贝塔
2.12
Moves about 2.1x the market波动幅度约为市场的 2.1 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
43
Neutral zone中性区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-06-23 (-26d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
32th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
2.7% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | CCL | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -1.6% | -1.5% | In line with the index与指数基本持平 |
| 1 Month近1月 | -11.7% | +0.6% | Lagged the index by 12.3 points落后指数 12.3 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | -9.1% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 13.8 points落后指数 13.8 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | -7.7% | +7.8% | Lagged the index by 15.5 points落后指数 15.5 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | -13.7% | +9.1% | Lagged the index by 22.8 points落后指数 22.8 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | -9.4% | +19.4% | Lagged the index by 28.8 points落后指数 28.8 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
43
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线
-3.3% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
-5.2% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
32th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$25.78
Don't chase above不追高于
$26.41
Stop止损
$25.64
Extended — wait for a pullback过度拉伸 — 等待回撤
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates roughly stable预期基本稳定
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | CCL | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 11.83x | 20.23 | 80% |
| P/B市净率 | 2.66x | 2.97 | 52% |
| P/S市销率 | 1.23x | 1.23 | 50% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 8.45% | 4.53 | 82% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 7.98% | 5.69 | 72% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 7.89x | 11.48 | 73% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 12.53x | 16.53 | 69% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 36.6%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
22.5%Return on Equity股本回报率
5.3%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | 3.40 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 0.32 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $98.0M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | +6.2% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 7/7
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: distress (1.2)
Clean稳健
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜
Cheaper than 65% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 65% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
2.12×
0.21×3×
Moves about 2.1× the market波动幅度约为市场的 2.1 倍
Financial Health财务健康
7/7
Altman阿尔特曼: distress
Strong financial health财务健康状况良好
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Travel & Experiences theme — #19 of 46 themes「旅行与体验」主题 — 46 个主题中第 19 位
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Short interest changed -17.1%空头仓位变动 -17.1%
Technical技术面
CCL StochRSI turned up from oversoldCCL StochRSI自超卖区上行
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±2.92%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±6.54%
Call wall看涨密集区
$28
Put wall看跌密集区
$26
Gamma flip伽玛翻转
$30
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-0.7%
Flow资金流向
$27M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 26 fresh positions; P/C 4.3; ~leans bearish/hedging (direction approx)成交权利金 $27M；0DTE占0%；26个新建仓；看跌看涨比 4.3；≈偏看跌/对冲（方向近似）
Skew: 偏斜：balanced
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$12.0M net (0 buyers, 1 sellers)-$12.0M 净值（0 买家，1 卖家）
Signal History信号历史
TURN SIGNALED
BOTTOMING
Jul 13, 2026
CCL StochRSI turned up from oversoldCCL StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $26.61.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$26.61。
Jul 9, 2026
NEARING A LOW → BOTTOMING接近低点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 8, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A LOW筑底中 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jul 8, 2026
CCL broke down vs the marketCCL 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $25.64.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$25.64。
Jul 2, 2026
CCL lost its 200-day averageCCL 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $27.91.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$27.91。
Jun 30, 2026
TOPPING → BOTTOMING做顶中 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jun 25, 2026
NEARING A LOW → TOPPING接近低点 → 做顶中
SELL SETUP卖出预备
Jun 25, 2026
CCL daily MACD crossed downCCL 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $28.46.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$28.46。
Jun 23, 2026
UPTREND → NEARING A LOW上涨趋势 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jun 23, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 81 signals条信号
Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.10
Value价值
+0.4
Quality质量
-0.4
Investment资本投入
+0.2
Low volatility低波动
-0.6
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-1.7
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.3
Short interest空头兴趣
+1.3
Company Profile公司档案
Carnival Corporation Ltd. is a Bermuda-domiciled American cruise line operator that owns more than 90 vessels across eight brands.嘉年华集团是一家注册于百慕大的美国邮轮运营商，旗下八个品牌拥有超过90艘邮轮。
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Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。