Teradyne · Tech
TER
$322.36
Teradyne, Inc. is an American automatic test equipment (ATE) designer and manufacturer based in North Reading, Massachusetts.Teradyne,Inc.是一家美国自动测试设备（ATE）设计制造商，总部位于马萨诸塞州北雷丁。
Rate-sensitive利率敏感
Large cap大盘
$50B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Strong name · wrong tape — wait for a base强势个股 · 趋势不利 — 等待筑底
Downtrend — stand aside until a new cycle low forms and confirms.下跌趋势——观望，直至新的周期低点形成并确认。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$322.36
33.4% below 52-week high低于52周高点 33.4%
Market Cap市值
$50B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
90.8x
40.2x sector median
Beta贝塔
3.15
Moves about 3.1x the market波动幅度约为市场的 3.1 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
39
Depressed偏低
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-08-04 (16d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
95th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
5.8% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | TER | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -10.4% | -1.5% | Lagged the index by 8.9 points落后指数 8.9 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | -21.1% | +0.6% | Lagged the index by 21.7 points落后指数 21.7 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | -15.2% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 19.9 points落后指数 19.9 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | +41.4% | +7.8% | Beat the index by 33.6 points跑赢指数 33.6 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | +55.4% | +9.1% | Beat the index by 46.3 points跑赢指数 46.3 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | +248.3% | +19.4% | Beat the index by 228.9 points跑赢指数 228.9 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
39
Depressed偏低
vs 50-day相对50日均线
-15.3% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+15.6% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
95th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Stop止损
$322.30
Blocked — failed cycle受阻 — 失败周期
Earnings财务业绩
16
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-08-04
Estimates being raised — 5 analysts预期上调 — 5 位分析师
Post-earnings drift: +6.7% (20d)财报后漂移：+6.7%（20日）
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | TER | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 90.82x | 40.17 | 19% |
| P/B市净率 | 18.00x | 5.85 | 15% |
| P/S市销率 | 15.77x | 4.85 | 10% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 1.10% | 2.19 | 31% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 0.90% | 3.05 | 18% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 1.40% | 2.16 | 39% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 64.29x | 29.30 | 20% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 111.71x | 30.46 | 10% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 0.4%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: -4.1%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
19.8%Return on Equity股本回报率
13.2%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | -0.38 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 1.75 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $702.1M |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $64.0M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | -3.5% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 5/8
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (23.5)
Clean稳健
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵
Cheaper than 16% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 16% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
3.15×
0.21×3×
Moves about 3.1× the market波动幅度约为市场的 3.1 倍
Financial Health财务健康
5/8
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Technology (Equal-Weight) theme — #23 of 46 themes「信息技术（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 23 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
TER broke down vs the marketTER 相对市场走弱
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±6.87%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±15.36%
Call wall看涨密集区
$338
Put wall看跌密集区
$300
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-8.9%
Flow资金流向
$18M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 24 fresh positions; P/C 0.69; ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $18M；0DTE占0%；24个新建仓；看跌看涨比 0.69；≈偏看涨（方向近似）
Skew: 偏斜：fear
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$1.7M net (0 buyers, 3 sellers)-$1.7M 净值（0 买家，3 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Activity动作 | % of portfolio组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lone Pine Capital | B | New position新建仓 | 4.4% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal History信号历史
DECLINE
DOWNTREND
Jul 16, 2026
TER broke down vs the marketTER 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $322.30.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$322.30。
Jul 13, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 8, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 7, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 6, 2026
BOTTOMING → UNCONFIRMED TURN筑底中 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 3, 2026
TER weekly MACD crossed downTER 周线MACD下穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned negative — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转负 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Jul 2, 2026
NEARING A LOW → BOTTOMING接近低点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 2, 2026
TER daily MACD crossed downTER 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $369.09.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$369.09。
Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 119 signals条信号
Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.62
Value价值
-1.1
Profitability盈利能力
+0.7
Quality质量
-0.2
Investment资本投入
-0.3
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.7
Low volatility低波动
-2.3
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-3.0
Earnings quality盈利质量
-0.3
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.9
Company Profile公司档案
Teradyne, Inc. is an American automatic test equipment (ATE) designer and manufacturer based in North Reading, Massachusetts.Teradyne,Inc.是一家美国自动测试设备（ATE）设计制造商，总部位于马萨诸塞州北雷丁。
Demand chain:需求链： Hyperscaler capex accelerating (+69% YoY to ~$379B) — the demand pool for AI infrastructure (compute, memory, networking)云厂商资本开支加速（同比+69%，约 $379B）——AI 基础设施（算力／内存／网络）的需求来源
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Margin compression despite revenue growth
- Receivables stretch
Get the full picture获取完整视图
Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。