Lumentum · Tech
LITE
$732.82
Lumentum Holdings Inc. is an American manufacturer of optical and photonic products.Lumentum控股公司是一家美国光学和光子产品制造商。
Rate-sensitive利率敏感
Large cap大盘
$52B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Strong name · wrong tape — wait for a base强势个股 · 趋势不利 — 等待筑底
Downtrend — stand aside until a new cycle low forms and confirms.下跌趋势——观望，直至新的周期低点形成并确认。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$732.82
30.4% below 52-week high低于52周高点 30.4%
Market Cap市值
$52B
Normal volume正常成交量
Beta贝塔
2.79
Moves about 2.8x the market波动幅度约为市场的 2.8 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
43
Neutral zone中性区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-08-11 (23d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
47th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
13.5% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | LITE | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -8.6% | -1.5% | Lagged the index by 7.1 points落后指数 7.1 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | -15.8% | +0.6% | Lagged the index by 16.4 points落后指数 16.4 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | -18.0% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 22.7 points落后指数 22.7 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | +126.0% | +7.8% | Beat the index by 118.2 points跑赢指数 118.2 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | +89.8% | +9.1% | Beat the index by 80.7 points跑赢指数 80.7 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | +614.0% | +19.4% | Beat the index by 594.6 points跑赢指数 594.6 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
43
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线
-15.7% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+28.1% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
47th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Stop止损
$698.90
Blocked — failed cycle受阻 — 失败周期
Earnings财务业绩
23
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-08-11
Estimates being raised — 19 analysts预期上调 — 19 位分析师
Post-earnings drift: -3.2% (20d)财报后漂移：-3.2%（20日）
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | LITE | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/B市净率 | 61.80x | 5.85 | 2% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | -0.20% | 3.05 | 5% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: -0.4%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: -26.7%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
Leverage杠杆
| Current ratio流动比率 | 4.37 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $177.2M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | +3.3% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 6/8
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (10.5)
Warning警示
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵
Cheaper than 4% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 4% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
2.79×
0.21×3×
Moves about 2.8× the market波动幅度约为市场的 2.8 倍
Financial Health财务健康
6/8
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Technology (Equal-Weight) theme — #23 of 46 themes「信息技术（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 23 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
LITE broke down vs the marketLITE 相对市场走弱
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±7.00%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±15.66%
Call wall看涨密集区
$800
Put wall看跌密集区
$700
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-3.8%
Flow资金流向
$133M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 122 fresh positions; P/C 1.19; net new PUT positioning (defensive / hedging) (ΔOI +12,780); ~leans bearish/hedging (direction approx)成交权利金 $133M；0DTE占0%；122个新建仓；看跌看涨比 1.19；净新增看跌持仓（防御/对冲）（ΔOI +12,780）；≈偏看跌/对冲（方向近似）
Skew: 偏斜：fear
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$46.4M net (0 buyers, 9 sellers)-$46.4M 净值（0 买家，9 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Activity动作 | % of portfolio组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiger Global (Coleman) | B | New position新建仓 | 0.4% | 2026-03-31 |
| Light Street Capital | B | New position新建仓 | 0.4% | 2026-03-31 |
| Duquesne Family Office (Druckenmiller) | C | New position新建仓 | 0.1% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal History信号历史
DECLINE
DOWNTREND
Jul 16, 2026
LITE broke down vs the marketLITE 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $706.23.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$706.23。
Jul 16, 2026
LITE daily MACD crossed downLITE 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $706.23.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$706.23。
Jul 14, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 14, 2026
LITE daily MACD crossed upLITE 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $814.80.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$814.80。
Jul 13, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 10, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → UNCONFIRMED TURN接近高点 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 9, 2026
DOWNTREND → NEARING A HIGH下跌趋势 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 9, 2026
LITE StochRSI turned up from oversoldLITE StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $785.77.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$785.77。
Jul 2, 2026
LITE broke down vs the marketLITE 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $728.32.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$728.32。
Jul 1, 2026
UPTREND → DOWNTREND上涨趋势 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 114 signals条信号
Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.88
Value价值
-2.5
Quality质量
+2.8
Investment资本投入
-0.8
Low volatility低波动
-3.0
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-2.6
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.1
Company Profile公司档案
Lumentum Holdings Inc. is an American manufacturer of optical and photonic products.Lumentum控股公司是一家美国光学和光子产品制造商。
Demand chain:需求链： Hyperscaler capex accelerating (+69% YoY to ~$379B) — the demand pool for AI infrastructure (compute, memory, networking)云厂商资本开支加速（同比+69%，约 $379B）——AI 基础设施（算力／内存／网络）的需求来源
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Capital intensity rising
Get the full picture获取完整视图
Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。