ADSK Autodesk · $218.35 Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势 Terminal终端 ↗

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Autodesk · Tech

ADSK

$218.35
Autodesk, Inc. is an American multinational software corporation that provides software products and services for the architecture, engineering, construction, manufacturing, media, education, and entertainment industries.欧特克公司是一家美国跨国软件公司，为建筑、工程、施工、制造、媒体、教育和娱乐行业提供软件产品和服务。
Broken growth成长受损 Large cap大盘 $46B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
Daily low forming, but the bigger trend is still bearish. Small size only; stop below 187.72.日线低点正在形成，但大趋势仍偏空。只适合小仓位；止损设于 187.72 下方。
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Key Statistics关键统计

Price价格
$218.35
33.2% below 52-week high低于52周高点 33.2%
Market Cap市值
$46B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
41.2x
40.2x sector median
Beta贝塔
0.54
Moves about 0.5x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.5 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
58
Neutral zone中性区域
Volatility Rank波动率分位
49th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
4.1% of float

Performance价格表现

Period周期 ADSK S&P 500vs Index对比指数
1 Week近1周 +4.7% -1.5% Beat the index by 6.2 points跑赢指数 6.2 个百分点
1 Month近1月 +13.1% +0.6% Beat the index by 12.5 points跑赢指数 12.5 个百分点
3 Months近3月 -9.8% +4.7% Lagged the index by 14.5 points落后指数 14.5 个百分点
6 Months近6月 -17.8% +7.8% Lagged the index by 25.6 points落后指数 25.6 个百分点
Year to date年初至今 -23.8% +9.1% Lagged the index by 32.9 points落后指数 32.9 个百分点
1 Year近1年 -25.3% +19.4% Lagged the index by 44.7 points落后指数 44.7 个百分点

Technicals技术面

RSI (14)RSI（14） 58 Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线 -0.5% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线 -15.5% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位 49th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$206.60
Don't chase above不追高于
$218.40
Stop止损
$187.70
Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望

Earnings财务业绩

Estimates being raised — 5 analysts预期上调 — 5 位分析师

Post-earnings drift: -11.8% (20d)财报后漂移：-11.8%（20日）

Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线

Valuation估值

Multiple指标 ADSK Sector median行业中位 Cheaper than相对便宜
P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） 41.18x 40.17
49%
P/B市净率 15.20x 5.85
20%
P/S市销率 6.42x 4.85
36%
Earnings yield盈利收益率 2.43% 2.19
56%
FCF yield自由现金流收益率 5.20% 3.05
70%
Shareholder yield股东收益率 3.03% 2.16
62%
EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA 26.25x 29.30
53%
P/FCF市值/自由现金流 19.22x 30.46
67%
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线

Financials财务数据

Revenue营业收入
$3.8B
2021
$4.4B
2022
$5.0B
2023
$5.5B
2024
$6.1B
2025
$7.2B
2026
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 13.7%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
$5.44
2021
$2.24
2022
$3.78
2023
$4.19
2024
$5.12
2025
$5.23
2026
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: -0.8%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
$1.3B
2021
$1.5B
2022
$2.0B
2023
$1.3B
2024
$1.6B
2025
$2.4B
2026
Margins利润率
Gross margin毛利率
91.0%
Operating margin营业利润率
21.9%
Net margin净利率
15.6%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
34.0%
36.9%Return on Equity股本回报率
9.0%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA0.14
Current ratio流动比率0.85
Capital Allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$1.4B
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$788.0M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-0.9%
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 7/9 Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (3.7) Clean稳健

Snapshot Gauges综合指标

Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理
Cheaper than 46% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 46% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
0.54×
0.21×3×
Moves about 0.5× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.5 倍
Financial Health财务健康
7/9
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Strong financial health财务健康状况良好
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息

Why Is It Moving为何波动

Sector / Theme行业/主题 Technology (Equal-Weight) theme — #23 of 46 themes「信息技术（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 23 位
Macro宏观 Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓 Short interest changed +17.5%空头仓位变动 +17.5%
Technical技术面 UNCONFIRMED TURN → UPTREND未确认转向 → 上涨趋势

Options Positioning期权持仓

Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡

Expected daily move预期日波动
±2.90%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±6.49%
Call wall看涨密集区
$220
Put wall看跌密集区
$200
Gamma flip伽玛翻转
$204
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
0.4%
Skew: 偏斜：balanced

Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱

Insider activity内部人员活动: -$0.3M net (0 buyers, 1 sellers)-$0.3M 净值（0 买家，1 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
Fund基金 Grade评级 Activity动作 % of portfolio组合占比 As of截至
D1 Capital Partners A trimtrim 0.7% 2026-03-31
Polen Capital Management B exitexit 0.0% 2026-03-31
Starboard Value B exitexit 0.0% 2026-03-31

Signal History信号历史

UPTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN上涨趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY. A daily bottoming setup is forming (swing low in, momentum turned up) — but the higher timeframes haven't confirmed it: the bigger picture is still bearish (weekly momentum curling up; 3-day crossed up; investor cycle failed (broke its start low)). This is an UNCONFIRMED TURN, not a confirmed buy. Weekly confirmation lags price, so this exact reading covers BOTH bounces that fail AND the first leg of a genuine new cycle — you can't tell which in real time, so treat it as a risk/size signal, not a direction call. Measured: weekly-unconfirmed bottoming setups held the low ~49% of the time vs ~68% once the weekly turns up高风险 · 仅限灵活操作。正在形成日线筑底形态（摆动低点已现、动量转向上行）——但更高周期尚未确认：大局仍偏空（周线动量开始上翘；3 日线向上交叉；投资者周期失败（跌破起始低点））。这是「未确认转向」，并非已确认的买入。周线确认滞后于价格，因此同样的读数既涵盖最终失败的反弹，也涵盖真正新周期的第一段——实时无法判定属于哪一种，故应将其视为风险/仓位信号，而非方向判断。实测：周线未确认的筑底形态约 49% 守住低点，周线转向后升至约 68%
COUNTERTREND BOUNCE UNCONFIRMED TURN
Jul 10, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → UPTREND未确认转向 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jul 1, 2026
ADSK daily MACD crossed upADSK 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $199.76.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$199.76。
Jun 29, 2026
ADSK broke down vs the marketADSK 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $195.24.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$195.24。
Jun 26, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jun 26, 2026
ADSK StochRSI turned up from oversoldADSK StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $196.26.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$196.26。
Jun 25, 2026
ADSK RSI reached oversoldADSK RSI进入超卖
RSI(14) crossed below 30 — washed out; context, not a timing trigger alone. $189.73.RSI(14)下穿30 — 超卖；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$189.73。
Jun 22, 2026
ADSK printed a daily-cycle lowADSK 打出日线周期低点
A confirmed local low — in this cycle framework the highest-odds long-entry window. $187.72.一个已确认的局部低点 — 在本周期框架中做多胜率最高的入场窗口。$187.72。
Jun 22, 2026
ADSK made a new 52-week lowADSK 创52周新低
Price reached a fresh 52-week low — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $187.72.价格创出52周新低 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$187.72。
Jun 17, 2026
ADSK made a new 52-week lowADSK 创52周新低
Price reached a fresh 52-week low — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $193.07.价格创出52周新低 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$193.07。
Jun 17, 2026
ADSK RSI reached oversoldADSK RSI进入超卖
RSI(14) crossed below 30 — washed out; context, not a timing trigger alone. $193.07.RSI(14)下穿30 — 超卖；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$193.07。

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Factor Profile因子特征

Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.19
Value价值
-0.9
Profitability盈利能力
+1.2
Quality质量
+1.2
Investment资本投入
-0.4
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.2
Low volatility低波动
+0.3
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+0.4
Earnings quality盈利质量
+1.1
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.8

Company Profile公司档案

Autodesk, Inc. is an American multinational software corporation that provides software products and services for the architecture, engineering, construction, manufacturing, media, education, and entertainment industries.欧特克公司是一家美国跨国软件公司，为建筑、工程、施工、制造、媒体、教育和娱乐行业提供软件产品和服务。
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