Ciena · Tech
CIEN
$374.41
Ciena Corporation is an American optical networking systems and software company based in Hanover, Maryland. The company has been described as a vital player in optical connectivity.CienaCorporation是一家美国光网络系统及软件公司，总部位于马里兰州汉诺威。该公司被描述为光连接领域的关键参与者。
High-beta momentum高贝塔动量
Large cap大盘
$53B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Strong name · wrong tape — wait for a base强势个股 · 趋势不利 — 等待筑底
Downtrend — stand aside until a new cycle low forms and confirms.下跌趋势——观望，直至新的周期低点形成并确认。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$374.41
40.3% below 52-week high低于52周高点 40.3%
Market Cap市值
$53B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
429.4x
40.2x sector median
Beta贝塔
2.55
Moves about 2.6x the market波动幅度约为市场的 2.6 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
33
Depressed偏低
Volatility Rank波动率分位
56th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
2.7% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | CIEN | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -18.7% | -1.5% | Lagged the index by 17.2 points落后指数 17.2 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | -14.3% | +0.6% | Lagged the index by 14.9 points落后指数 14.9 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | -26.2% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 30.9 points落后指数 30.9 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | +53.8% | +7.8% | Beat the index by 46.0 points跑赢指数 46.0 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | +52.2% | +9.1% | Beat the index by 43.1 points跑赢指数 43.1 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | +341.5% | +19.4% | Beat the index by 322.1 points跑赢指数 322.1 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
33
Depressed偏低
vs 50-day相对50日均线
-25.1% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+10.1% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
56th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Stop止损
$374.40
Blocked — failed cycle受阻 — 失败周期
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates being raised — 17 analysts预期上调 — 17 位分析师
Post-earnings drift: -13.3% (20d)财报后漂移：-13.3%（20日）
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | CIEN | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 429.40x | 40.17 | 4% |
| P/B市净率 | 18.97x | 5.85 | 14% |
| P/S市销率 | 11.10x | 4.85 | 17% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 0.23% | 2.19 | 18% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 1.26% | 3.05 | 24% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 0.63% | 2.16 | 22% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 177.03x | 29.30 | 7% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 79.61x | 30.46 | 17% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 6.2%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: -18.2%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
4.4%Return on Equity股本回报率
2.1%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | 1.47 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 2.73 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $334.5M |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $184.5M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | -0.8% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 7/9
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (10.8)
Watch关注
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵
Cheaper than 13% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 13% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
2.55×
0.21×3×
Moves about 2.6× the market波动幅度约为市场的 2.6 倍
Financial Health财务健康
7/9
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Strong financial health财务健康状况良好
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Technology (Equal-Weight) theme — #23 of 46 themes「信息技术（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 23 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Short interest changed -19.1%空头仓位变动 -19.1%
Technical技术面
CIEN daily MACD crossed downCIEN 日线MACD下穿
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±5.96%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±13.33%
Call wall看涨密集区
$410
Put wall看跌密集区
$348
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-8.2%
Flow资金流向
$47M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 91 fresh positions; P/C 1.15; net new PUT positioning (defensive / hedging) (ΔOI +3,605); ~leans bearish/hedging (direction approx)成交权利金 $47M；0DTE占0%；91个新建仓；看跌看涨比 1.15；净新增看跌持仓（防御/对冲）（ΔOI +3,605）；≈偏看跌/对冲（方向近似）
Skew: 偏斜：fear
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$53.5M net (0 buyers, 9 sellers)-$53.5M 净值（0 买家，9 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Activity动作 | % of portfolio组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lone Pine Capital | B | New position新建仓 | 2.5% | 2026-03-31 |
| Whale Rock Capital | A | trimtrim | 1.2% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal History信号历史
DECLINE
DOWNTREND
Jul 16, 2026
CIEN daily MACD crossed downCIEN 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $388.81.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$388.81。
Jul 15, 2026
CIEN broke down vs the marketCIEN 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $418.46.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$418.46。
Jul 9, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 9, 2026
CIEN daily MACD crossed upCIEN 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $462.34.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$462.34。
Jul 8, 2026
CIEN StochRSI turned up from oversoldCIEN StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $440.97.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$440.97。
Jul 6, 2026
CIEN daily MACD crossed downCIEN 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $433.83.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$433.83。
Jul 1, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jun 29, 2026
UPTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN上涨趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 114 signals条信号
Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.50
Value价值
-1.1
Profitability盈利能力
+0.1
Quality质量
+0.7
Investment资本投入
+0.2
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.9
Low volatility低波动
-2.0
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-2.3
Earnings quality盈利质量
+1.2
Short interest空头兴趣
+1.3
Company Profile公司档案
Ciena Corporation is an American optical networking systems and software company based in Hanover, Maryland. The company has been described as a vital player in optical connectivity.CienaCorporation是一家美国光网络系统及软件公司，总部位于马里兰州汉诺威。该公司被描述为光连接领域的关键参与者。
Demand chain:需求链： Hyperscaler capex accelerating (+69% YoY to ~$379B) — the demand pool for AI infrastructure (compute, memory, networking)云厂商资本开支加速（同比+69%，约 $379B）——AI 基础设施（算力／内存／网络）的需求来源
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Margin compression despite revenue growth
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Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。