TransDigm Group · Industrials
TDG
$1214.43
TransDigm Group Incorporated is an American publicly traded aerospace manufacturing company headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio. TransDigm develops and manufactures engineered aerospace components.TransDigmGroupIncorporated是一家美国公开交易的航空航天制造公司，总部位于俄亥俄州克利夫兰。TransDigm开发并制造工程航空航天组件。
Cyclical周期股
Large cap大盘
$69B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
A cycle low is due in roughly ~0–17 trading days — watch for the turn, don't front-run it.周期低点预计在约 ~0–17 个交易日内出现——等待转向，切勿抢跑。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$1214.43
19.9% below 52-week high低于52周高点 19.9%
Market Cap市值
$69B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
33.1x
29.9x sector median
Beta贝塔
0.76
Moves about 0.8x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.8 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
38
Depressed偏低
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-08-04 (16d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
52th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
2.0% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | TDG | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -6.0% | -1.5% | Lagged the index by 4.5 points落后指数 4.5 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | -7.8% | +0.6% | Lagged the index by 8.4 points落后指数 8.4 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | -4.1% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 8.8 points落后指数 8.8 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | -16.2% | +7.8% | Lagged the index by 24.0 points落后指数 24.0 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | -10.6% | +9.1% | Lagged the index by 19.7 points落后指数 19.7 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | -18.6% | +19.4% | Lagged the index by 38.0 points落后指数 38.0 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
38
Depressed偏低
vs 50-day相对50日均线
-3.2% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
-5.4% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
52th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$1190.40
Don't chase above不追高于
$1214.40
Stop止损
$1214.40
Watch — a low is approaching观察 — 低点临近
Earnings财务业绩
16
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-08-04
Estimates being cut预期下调
Post-earnings drift: -4.3% (20d)财报后漂移：-4.3%（20日）
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | TDG | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 33.07x | 29.89 | 42% |
| P/S市销率 | 7.77x | 2.21 | 5% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 3.02% | 3.10 | 48% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 2.65% | 3.81 | 30% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 0.96% | 2.29 | 22% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 21.00x | 16.39 | 29% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 37.77x | 25.50 | 25% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 11.6%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 29.1%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
-22.4%Return on Equity股本回报率
8.7%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | 5.87 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 3.21 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $500.0M |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $152.0M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | +0.7% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 6/8
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: grey (1.9)
Clean稳健
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵
Cheaper than 26% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 26% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
0.76×
0.21×3×
Moves about 0.8× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.8 倍
Financial Health财务健康
6/8
Altman阿尔特曼: grey
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Industrials (Equal-Weight) theme — #15 of 46 themes「工业（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 15 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
TDG lost its 200-day averageTDG 跌破200日均线
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±2.07%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±4.62%
Call wall看涨密集区
$1360
Put wall看跌密集区
$1190
Gamma flip伽玛翻转
$1308
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-4.2%
Flow资金流向
$0M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 2 fresh positions; P/C 0.33; net new CALL positioning (bullish lean) (ΔOI +3,761)成交权利金 $0M；0DTE占0%；2个新建仓；看跌看涨比 0.33；净新增看涨持仓（偏多）（ΔOI +3,761）
Skew: 偏斜：fear
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$374.9M net (1 buyers, 5 sellers)-$374.9M 净值（1 买家，5 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Activity动作 | % of portfolio组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Third Point (Loeb) | B | New position新建仓 | 1.4% | 2026-03-31 |
| Lone Pine Capital | B | Adding加仓 | 0.3% | 2026-03-31 |
| AltaRock Partners | C | Holding持有 | 25.5% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal History信号历史
BOTTOM WATCH
NEARING A LOW
Jul 13, 2026
TDG lost its 200-day averageTDG 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $1,235.00.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$1,235.00。
Jul 8, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 8, 2026
TDG daily MACD crossed downTDG 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $1,296.43.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$1,296.43。
Jul 6, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 1, 2026
UPTREND → NEARING A LOW上涨趋势 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jul 1, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jun 26, 2026
BUY ZONE → UPTREND买入区 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jun 23, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BUY ZONE接近高点 → 买入区
BUY买入
Jun 22, 2026
BUY ZONE → NEARING A HIGH买入区 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 98 signals条信号
Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.57
Value价值
-1.2
Profitability盈利能力
-0.5
Quality质量
-1.4
Investment资本投入
-0.1
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.8
Low volatility低波动
+0.6
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+0.1
Earnings quality盈利质量
-0.8
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.9
Company Profile公司档案
TransDigm Group Incorporated is an American publicly traded aerospace manufacturing company headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio. TransDigm develops and manufactures engineered aerospace components.TransDigmGroupIncorporated是一家美国公开交易的航空航天制造公司，总部位于俄亥俄州克利夫兰。TransDigm开发并制造工程航空航天组件。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Capital intensity rising
Get the full picture获取完整视图
Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。