GWW W. W. Grainger · $1395.01 Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高;等待回撤 Terminal终端
W. W. Grainger · Industrials

GWW

$1395.01
W. W. Grainger, Inc. is an American Fortune 500 industrial supply company founded in 1927 in Chicago by the company's namesake William W. (Bill) Grainger.W.W.Grainger,Inc.是一家美国《财富》500强工业用品供应公司,1927年由同名创始人威廉·W·格兰杰在芝加哥创立。
Cyclical周期股 Large cap大盘 $66B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高;等待回撤
You missed the bottoming entry — the low already formed and price is now extended (overbought (daily RSI 63, 3-day 71 & 已错过筑底入场——低点已经形成,目前价格已拉伸(已超买(日线 RSI 63、3 日 71 与周线 74))。不要追高;等待回调至 10 日均线或下一个周期低点。若已持有则继续持有。
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Key Statistics关键统计

Price价格
$1395.01
0.5% below 52-week high低于52周高点 0.5%
Market Cap市值
$66B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
38.7x
29.9x sector median
Beta贝塔
0.77
Moves about 0.8x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.8 倍
RSI (14)RSI(14)
63
Elevated偏高
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-08-04 (16d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
73th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
2.7% of float

Performance价格表现

Period周期 GWW S&P 500vs Index对比指数
1 Week近1周 +1.4% -1.5% Beat the index by 2.9 points跑赢指数 2.9 个百分点
1 Month近1月 +6.4% +0.6% Beat the index by 5.8 points跑赢指数 5.8 个百分点
3 Months近3月 +20.2% +4.7% Beat the index by 15.5 points跑赢指数 15.5 个百分点
6 Months近6月 +31.0% +7.8% Beat the index by 23.2 points跑赢指数 23.2 个百分点
Year to date年初至今 +39.5% +9.1% Beat the index by 30.4 points跑赢指数 30.4 个百分点
1 Year近1年 +37.7% +19.4% Beat the index by 18.3 points跑赢指数 18.3 个百分点

Technicals技术面

RSI (14)RSI(14) 63 Elevated偏高
vs 50-day相对50日均线 +6.9% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线 +25.7% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位 73th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$1368.45
Don't chase above不追高于
$1395.00
Stop止损
$1311.10
Topping — protect gains见顶 — 保护利润

Earnings财务业绩

16
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-08-04

Estimates being raised — 2 analysts预期上调 — 2 位分析师

Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线

Valuation估值

Multiple指标 GWW Sector median行业中位 Cheaper than相对便宜
P/E (trailing)市盈率(历史) 38.74x 29.89
30%
P/B市净率 17.69x 3.90
6%
P/S市销率 3.68x 2.21
28%
Earnings yield盈利收益率 2.58% 3.10
37%
FCF yield自由现金流收益率 2.01% 3.81
23%
Shareholder yield股东收益率 2.29% 2.29
50%
EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA 24.07x 16.39
24%
P/FCF市值/自由现金流 49.65x 25.50
16%
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线

Financials财务数据

Revenue营业收入
$11.8B
2020
$13.0B
2021
$15.2B
2022
$16.5B
2023
$17.2B
2024
$17.9B
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 8.7%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
$12.82
2020
$19.84
2021
$30.06
2022
$36.23
2023
$38.71
2024
$35.40
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 22.5%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
$926.0M
2020
$682.0M
2021
$1.1B
2022
$1.6B
2023
$1.6B
2024
$1.3B
2025
Margins利润率
Gross margin毛利率
39.1%
Operating margin营业利润率
13.9%
Net margin净利率
9.5%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
11.2%
45.7%Return on Equity股本回报率
19.0%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA0.67
Current ratio流动比率2.83
Capital Allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购(TTM)$1.0B
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$64.0M
Share count change (1y)股数变化(1年)-1.7%
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 5/8 Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (13.3) Clean稳健

Snapshot Gauges综合指标

Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵
Cheaper than 22% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 22% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
0.77×
0.2
Moves about 0.8× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.8 倍
Financial Health财务健康
5/8
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息

Why Is It Moving为何波动

Sector / Theme行业/主题 Industrials (Equal-Weight) theme — #15 of 46 themes「工业(等权)」主题 — 46 个主题中第 15 位
Macro宏观 Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场/成长beta体现,并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓 Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面 GWW took relative-strength leadershipGWW 取得相对强弱领先

Options Positioning期权持仓

Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛,价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡

Expected daily move预期日波动
±1.84%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±4.12%
Call wall看涨密集区
$1460
Put wall看跌密集区
$1280
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-3.7%
Skew: 偏斜:fear

Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱

Insider activity内部人员活动: -$28.6M net (0 buyers, 3 sellers)-$28.6M 净值(0 买家,3 卖家)

Signal History信号历史

BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS. A daily bottoming setup did fire (swing low in, momentum turned up), but it's LATE — price is already extended above the cycle low (formed ~20 day(s) ago @ 1311.1) and overbought (daily RSI 63, 3-day 71 & weekly 74). A momentum cross is a LAGGING confirmation: after a vertical run it only triggers once the move is mature, so the bottoming entry has already passed. This is a chase, not a fresh buy. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell止盈。日线筑底形态确实已经触发(摆动低点出现、动量转向上行),但为时已晚——价格已显著高于周期低点(约 20 天前形成 @ 1311.1)且已超买(日线 RSI 63、3 日 71 与周线 74)。动量交叉属于滞后确认:在垂直拉升之后,只有当走势已经成熟时才会触发,因此筑底入场早已错过。这是追高,而非新的买入。 上一周期为左移结构(见顶偏早)——属于看空的结构性信号
TOP WATCH NEARING A HIGH
Jul 16, 2026
GWW took relative-strength leadershipGWW 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $1,402.03.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$1,402.03。
Jul 16, 2026
GWW made a new 52-week highGWW 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $1,402.03.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$1,402.03。
Jul 10, 2026
GWW made a new 52-week highGWW 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $1,375.76.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$1,375.76。
Jul 10, 2026
GWW StochRSI turned up from oversoldGWW StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $1,375.76.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$1,375.76。
Jul 8, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 6, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 2, 2026
GWW took relative-strength leadershipGWW 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $1,342.98.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$1,342.98。
Jul 1, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jun 29, 2026
GWW daily MACD crossed downGWW 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $1,353.29.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂,仅作背景。$1,353.29。

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Factor Profile因子特征

Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.45
Value价值
-0.9
Profitability盈利能力
+2.6
Quality质量
+0.1
Investment资本投入
+0.4
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.4
Low volatility低波动
+0.9
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+0.1
Earnings quality盈利质量
-0.2
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.8

Company Profile公司档案

W. W. Grainger, Inc. is an American Fortune 500 industrial supply company founded in 1927 in Chicago by the company's namesake William W. (Bill) Grainger.W.W.Grainger,Inc.是一家美国《财富》500强工业用品供应公司,1927年由同名创始人威廉·W·格兰杰在芝加哥创立。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
  • Margin compression despite revenue growth
  • Capital intensity rising
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