Cavco Industries, Inc. · Consumer Disc.
CVCO
$566.22
Cavco Industries, Inc. is an American company that manufactures modular homes, Recreational vehicle (RVs), vacation cabins, and manufactured homes.CavcoIndustries,Inc.是一家美国公司，生产模块化住宅、休闲车（RV）、度假小屋和活动房屋。
Rate-sensitive利率敏感
Mid cap中盘
$4B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
Setup almost complete — likely buy trigger in ~1–4 trading days if it closes back above its 10-day average.形态接近完成——若收盘重新站上 10 日均线，预计将在约 1–4 个交易日内出现买入触发。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$566.22
18.9% below 52-week high低于52周高点 18.9%
Market Cap市值
$4B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
23.1x
20.2x sector median
Beta贝塔
1.21
Moves about 1.2x the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.2 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
47
Neutral zone中性区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-07-30 (11d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
33th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
5.8% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | CVCO | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -0.2% | -1.5% | Beat the index by 1.3 points跑赢指数 1.3 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | -3.4% | +0.6% | Lagged the index by 4.0 points落后指数 4.0 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | +5.0% | +4.7% | In line with the index与指数基本持平 |
| 6 Months近6月 | -18.9% | +7.8% | Lagged the index by 26.7 points落后指数 26.7 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | -4.3% | +9.1% | Lagged the index by 13.4 points落后指数 13.4 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | +32.0% | +19.4% | Beat the index by 12.6 points跑赢指数 12.6 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | +89.6% | +69.4% | Beat the index by 20.2 points跑赢指数 20.2 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
47
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线
+2.8% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+1.8% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
33th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$560.65
Don't chase above不追高于
$572.00
Stop止损
$555.10
Buy soon — on confirmation即将买入 — 待确认
Earnings财务业绩
11
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-07-30
Estimates being cut预期下调
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | CVCO | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 23.06x | 20.23 | 41% |
| P/B市净率 | 4.05x | 2.97 | 38% |
| P/S市销率 | 1.96x | 1.23 | 34% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 4.34% | 4.53 | 47% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 3.56% | 5.69 | 30% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 3.63% | 4.31 | 41% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 19.34x | 11.48 | 17% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 28.07x | 16.53 | 25% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 16.1%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 25.9%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
17.6%Return on Equity股本回报率
13.0%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | -1.70 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 3.00 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $8.7M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | -3.5% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 6/8
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (11.3)
Clean稳健
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理
Cheaper than 32% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 32% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
1.21×
0.21×3×
Moves about 1.2× the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.2 倍
Financial Health财务健康
6/8
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
CVCO StochRSI turned up from oversoldCVCO StochRSI自超卖区上行
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: +$0.6M net (3 buyers, 1 sellers)+$0.6M 净值（3 买家，1 卖家）
Signal History信号历史
TURN SIGNALED
BOTTOMING
Jul 16, 2026
CVCO StochRSI turned up from oversoldCVCO StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $585.49.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$585.49。
Jul 14, 2026
CVCO reclaimed its 200-day averageCVCO 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $561.83.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$561.83。
Jul 13, 2026
CVCO lost its 200-day averageCVCO 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $555.08.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$555.08。
Jul 1, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 1, 2026
CVCO daily MACD crossed downCVCO 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $601.89.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$601.89。
Jun 29, 2026
BUY ZONE → NEARING A HIGH买入区 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jun 26, 2026
UPTREND → BUY ZONE上涨趋势 → 买入区
BUY买入
Jun 26, 2026
CVCO took relative-strength leadershipCVCO 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $618.30.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$618.30。
Jun 25, 2026
CVCO StochRSI turned up from oversoldCVCO StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $608.52.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$608.52。
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Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.08
Value价值
-0.4
Profitability盈利能力
+0.2
Quality质量
+0.1
Investment资本投入
+0.1
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.1
Low volatility低波动
-0.5
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-0.5
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.1
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.3
Company Profile公司档案
Cavco Industries, Inc. is an American company that manufactures modular homes, Recreational vehicle (RVs), vacation cabins, and manufactured homes.CavcoIndustries,Inc.是一家美国公司，生产模块化住宅、休闲车（RV）、度假小屋和活动房屋。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Margin compression despite revenue growth
- Receivables stretch
- Capital intensity rising
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