CAKE The Cheesecake Factory, Inc. · $85.77 Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤 Terminal终端 ↗

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The Cheesecake Factory, Inc. · Consumer Disc.

CAKE

$85.77
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated is an American restaurant chain and cheesecake distributor based in the United States. It operates 370 full-service restaurants: 218 under the Cheesecake Factory brand, 47 under the North Italia brand, and 105 under other brands.TheCheesecakeFactoryIncorporated是一家美国连锁餐厅及芝士蛋糕分销商，总部位于美国。其运营370家全服务餐厅：218家以CheesecakeFactory品牌经营，47家以NorthItalia品牌经营，105家以其他品牌经营。
Cyclical周期股 Mid cap中盘 $4B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
You missed the bottoming entry — the low already formed and price is now extended (overbought (daily RSI 72, 3-day 74 & 已错过筑底入场——低点已经形成，目前价格已拉伸（已超买（日线 RSI 72、3 日 74 与周线 77））。不要追高；等待回调至 10 日均线或下一个周期低点。若已持有则继续持有。
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Key Statistics关键统计

Price价格
$85.77
0.0% below 52-week high0.0% below 52-week high
Market Cap市值
$4B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
28.8x
20.2x sector median
Beta贝塔
0.67
Moves about 0.7x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.7 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
72
Overbought超买区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-08-04 (16d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
32th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
17.5% of float

Performance价格表现

Period周期 CAKE S&P 500vs Index对比指数
1 Week近1周 +3.6% -1.5% Beat the index by 5.1 points跑赢指数 5.1 个百分点
1 Month近1月 +13.6% +0.6% Beat the index by 13.0 points跑赢指数 13.0 个百分点
3 Months近3月 +37.5% +4.7% Beat the index by 32.8 points跑赢指数 32.8 个百分点
6 Months近6月 +46.0% +7.8% Beat the index by 38.2 points跑赢指数 38.2 个百分点
Year to date年初至今 +64.0% +9.1% Beat the index by 54.9 points跑赢指数 54.9 个百分点
1 Year近1年 +41.3% +19.4% Beat the index by 21.9 points跑赢指数 21.9 个百分点
3 Years近3年 +156.2% +69.4% Beat the index by 86.8 points跑赢指数 86.8 个百分点

Technicals技术面

RSI (14)RSI（14） 72 Overbought超买区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线 +21.4% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线 +45.4% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位 32th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$79.97
Don't chase above不追高于
$85.77
Stop止损
$73.27
Extended — wait for a pullback过度拉伸 — 等待回撤

Earnings财务业绩

16
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-08-04

Estimates roughly stable预期基本稳定

Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线

Valuation估值

Multiple指标 CAKE Sector median行业中位 Cheaper than相对便宜
P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） 28.77x 20.23
27%
P/B市净率 9.75x 2.97
16%
P/S市销率 1.13x 1.23
52%
Earnings yield盈利收益率 3.48% 4.53
35%
FCF yield自由现金流收益率 3.64% 5.69
31%
Shareholder yield股东收益率 4.84% 4.31
56%
EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA 15.77x 11.48
27%
P/FCF市值/自由现金流 27.45x 16.53
25%
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线

Financials财务数据

Revenue营业收入
$2.5B
2019
$2.0B
2020
$2.9B
2021
$3.3B
2023
$3.6B
2024
$3.8B
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 8.6%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
$2.86
2019
$-6.32
2020
$1.01
2021
$0.86
2023
$3.20
2024
$3.06
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 1.4%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
$145.0M
2019
-$47.4M
2020
$146.1M
2021
$49.5M
2023
$108.0M
2024
$155.1M
2025
Margins利润率
Operating margin营业利润率
5.0%
Net margin净利率
3.9%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
8.0%
33.9%Return on Equity股本回报率
4.5%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA1.40
Current ratio流动比率0.59
Capital Allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$153.9M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$27.2M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-3.3%
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 5/8 Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: grey (2.7) Clean稳健

Snapshot Gauges综合指标

Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理
Cheaper than 31% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 31% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
0.67×
0.21×3×
Moves about 0.7× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.7 倍
Financial Health财务健康
5/8
Altman阿尔特曼: grey
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息

Why Is It Moving为何波动

Macro宏观 Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓 Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面 CAKE daily MACD crossed upCAKE 日线MACD上穿

Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱

Insider activity内部人员活动: -$1.3M net (0 buyers, 5 sellers)-$1.3M 净值（0 买家，5 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
Fund基金 Grade评级 Activity动作 % of portfolio组合占比 As of截至
Polen Capital Management B New position新建仓 0.0% 2026-03-31

Signal History信号历史

BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS. A daily bottoming setup did fire (swing low in, momentum turned up), but it's LATE — price is already extended above the cycle low (formed ~21 day(s) ago @ 73.27) and overbought (daily RSI 72, 3-day 74 & weekly 77). A momentum cross is a LAGGING confirmation: after a vertical run it only triggers once the move is mature, so the bottoming entry has already passed. This is a chase, not a fresh buy止盈。日线筑底形态确实已经触发（摆动低点出现、动量转向上行），但为时已晚——价格已显著高于周期低点（约 21 天前形成 @ 73.27）且已超买（日线 RSI 72、3 日 74 与周线 77）。动量交叉属于滞后确认：在垂直拉升之后，只有当走势已经成熟时才会触发，因此筑底入场早已错过。这是追高，而非新的买入
TOP WATCH NEARING A HIGH
Jul 17, 2026
CAKE daily MACD crossed upCAKE 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $85.77.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$85.77。
Jul 17, 2026
CAKE RSI reached overboughtCAKE RSI进入超买
RSI(14) crossed above 70 — stretched to the upside; context, not a timing trigger alone. $85.77.RSI(14)上穿70 — 上行过度；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$85.77。
Jul 16, 2026
CAKE made a new 52-week highCAKE 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $83.31.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$83.31。
Jul 10, 2026
CAKE made a new 52-week highCAKE 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $82.76.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$82.76。
Jul 10, 2026
CAKE StochRSI turned up from oversoldCAKE StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $82.76.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$82.76。
Jul 10, 2026
CAKE RSI reached overboughtCAKE RSI进入超买
RSI(14) crossed above 70 — stretched to the upside; context, not a timing trigger alone. $82.76.RSI(14)上穿70 — 上行过度；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$82.76。
Jul 9, 2026
CAKE took relative-strength leadershipCAKE 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $78.42.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$78.42。
Jul 7, 2026
CAKE took relative-strength leadershipCAKE 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $77.74.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$77.74。
Jul 6, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 6, 2026
CAKE daily MACD crossed downCAKE 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $76.89.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$76.89。
Jun 24, 2026
CAKE made a new 52-week highCAKE 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $78.17.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$78.17。

Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 269 signals条信号

Factor Profile因子特征

Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.11
Value价值
-0.5
Quality质量
+0.5
Investment资本投入
+0.1
Shareholder payout股东回报
+0.2
Low volatility低波动
+0.2
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+0.2
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.0
Short interest空头兴趣
-2.1

Company Profile公司档案

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated is an American restaurant chain and cheesecake distributor based in the United States. It operates 370 full-service restaurants: 218 under the Cheesecake Factory brand, 47 under the North Italia brand, and 105 under other brands.TheCheesecakeFactoryIncorporated是一家美国连锁餐厅及芝士蛋糕分销商，总部位于美国。其运营370家全服务餐厅：218家以CheesecakeFactory品牌经营，47家以NorthItalia品牌经营，105家以其他品牌经营。
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