ULTA Ulta Beauty · $479.57 Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势 Terminal终端 ↗

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Ulta Beauty · Consumer Disc.

ULTA

$479.57
Ulta Beauty, Inc., formerly known as Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc. and before 2000 as Ulta3, is an American chain of cosmetic stores headquartered in Bolingbrook, Illinois.UltaBeauty,Inc.（Ulta美容公司），原名UltaSalon,Cosmetics&FragranceInc.，2000年前称Ulta3，是一家美国化妆品连锁店，总部位于伊利诺伊州博林布鲁克。
Secular growth长期成长 Large cap大盘 $21B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
Daily low forming, but the bigger trend is still bearish. Small size only; stop below 450.75.日线低点正在形成，但大趋势仍偏空。只适合小仓位；止损设于 450.75 下方。
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Key Statistics关键统计

Price价格
$479.57
32.2% below 52-week high低于52周高点 32.2%
Market Cap市值
$21B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
18.4x
20.2x sector median
Beta贝塔
0.52
Moves about 0.5x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.5 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
54
Neutral zone中性区域
Volatility Rank波动率分位
67th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
4.7% of float

Performance价格表现

Period周期 ULTA S&P 500vs Index对比指数
1 Week近1周 +2.2% -1.5% Beat the index by 3.7 points跑赢指数 3.7 个百分点
1 Month近1月 +6.4% +0.6% Beat the index by 5.8 points跑赢指数 5.8 个百分点
3 Months近3月 -13.3% +4.7% Lagged the index by 18.0 points落后指数 18.0 个百分点
6 Months近6月 -27.7% +7.8% Lagged the index by 35.5 points落后指数 35.5 个百分点
Year to date年初至今 -22.7% +9.1% Lagged the index by 31.8 points落后指数 31.8 个百分点
1 Year近1年 -2.1% +19.4% Lagged the index by 21.5 points落后指数 21.5 个百分点

Technicals技术面

RSI (14)RSI（14） 54 Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线 -0.4% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线 -14.0% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位 67th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$465.85
Don't chase above不追高于
$479.60
Stop止损
$450.80
Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望

Earnings财务业绩

Estimates roughly stable预期基本稳定

Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线

Valuation估值

Multiple指标 ULTA Sector median行业中位 Cheaper than相对便宜
P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） 18.37x 20.23
56%
P/B市净率 7.56x 2.97
21%
P/S市销率 1.71x 1.23
37%
Earnings yield盈利收益率 5.44% 4.53
61%
FCF yield自由现金流收益率 5.04% 5.69
46%
Shareholder yield股东收益率 4.26% 4.31
49%
EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA 11.32x 11.48
51%
P/FCF市值/自由现金流 19.83x 16.53
41%
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线

Financials财务数据

Revenue营业收入
$6.2B
2020
$8.6B
2021
$10.2B
2022
$11.2B
2023
$11.3B
2024
$12.4B
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 15.0%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
$3.11
2020
$17.98
2021
$24.01
2022
$26.03
2023
$25.34
2024
$25.64
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 52.5%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
$658.5M
2020
$887.1M
2021
$1.2B
2022
$1.0B
2023
$964.1M
2024
$1.1B
2025
Margins利润率
Gross margin毛利率
39.1%
Operating margin营业利润率
12.4%
Net margin净利率
9.3%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
12.1%
41.1%Return on Equity股本回报率
16.5%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-0.23
Current ratio流动比率1.41
Capital Allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$901.4M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$37.4M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-3.9%
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 5/8 Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (6.0) Clean稳健

Snapshot Gauges综合指标

Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理
Cheaper than 42% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 42% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
0.52×
0.21×3×
Moves about 0.5× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.5 倍
Financial Health财务健康
5/8
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息

Why Is It Moving为何波动

Sector / Theme行业/主题 Retail theme — #24 of 46 themes「零售」主题 — 46 个主题中第 24 位
Macro宏观 Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓 Quiet — no confirmed driver平静 — 无明确驱动
Technical技术面 DOWNTREND → NEARING A LOW下跌趋势 → 接近低点

Options Positioning期权持仓

Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大

Expected daily move预期日波动
±2.21%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±4.95%
Call wall看涨密集区
$500
Put wall看跌密集区
$470
Gamma flip伽玛翻转
$480
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
3.0%
Flow资金流向

$4M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 34 fresh positions; P/C 1.13; net new CALL positioning (bullish lean) (ΔOI +4,907); ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $4M；0DTE占0%；34个新建仓；看跌看涨比 1.13；净新增看涨持仓（偏多）（ΔOI +4,907）；≈偏看涨（方向近似）

Skew: 偏斜：greed

Signal History信号历史

NEARING A LOW → UNCONFIRMED TURN接近低点 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY. A daily bottoming setup is forming (swing low in, momentum turned up) — but the higher timeframes haven't confirmed it: the bigger picture is still bearish (weekly momentum curling up; 3-day crossed up; investor cycle failed (broke its start low); last cycle left-translated (topped early)). This is an UNCONFIRMED TURN, not a confirmed buy. Weekly confirmation lags price, so this exact reading covers BOTH bounces that fail AND the first leg of a genuine new cycle — you can't tell which in real time, so treat it as a risk/size signal, not a direction call. Measured: weekly-unconfirmed bottoming setups held the low ~49% of the time vs ~68% once the weekly turns up. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell高风险 · 仅限灵活操作。正在形成日线筑底形态（摆动低点已现、动量转向上行）——但更高周期尚未确认：大局仍偏空（周线动量开始上翘；3 日线向上交叉；投资者周期失败（跌破起始低点）；上一周期左移（见顶偏早））。这是「未确认转向」，并非已确认的买入。周线确认滞后于价格，因此同样的读数既涵盖最终失败的反弹，也涵盖真正新周期的第一段——实时无法判定属于哪一种，故应将其视为风险/仓位信号，而非方向判断。实测：周线未确认的筑底形态约 49% 守住低点，周线转向后升至约 68%。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
COUNTERTREND BOUNCE UNCONFIRMED TURN
Jul 2, 2026
DOWNTREND → NEARING A LOW下跌趋势 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jun 30, 2026
ULTA made a new 52-week lowULTA 创52周新低
Price reached a fresh 52-week low — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $450.98.价格创出52周新低 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$450.98。
Jun 29, 2026
UPTREND → DOWNTREND上涨趋势 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jun 29, 2026
ULTA broke down vs the marketULTA 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $459.12.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$459.12。
Jun 24, 2026
DOWNTREND → UPTREND下跌趋势 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jun 23, 2026
ULTA daily MACD crossed upULTA 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $459.33.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$459.33。
Jun 17, 2026
ULTA printed a daily-cycle lowULTA 打出日线周期低点
A confirmed local low — in this cycle framework the highest-odds long-entry window. $450.75.一个已确认的局部低点 — 在本周期框架中做多胜率最高的入场窗口。$450.75。
Jun 17, 2026
ULTA made a new 52-week lowULTA 创52周新低
Price reached a fresh 52-week low — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $450.75.价格创出52周新低 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$450.75。
Jun 9, 2026
ULTA StochRSI turned up from oversoldULTA StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $477.90.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$477.90。

Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 87 signals条信号

Factor Profile因子特征

Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.32
Value价值
-0.4
Profitability盈利能力
+2.1
Quality质量
+0.3
Investment资本投入
-0.5
Shareholder payout股东回报
+0.1
Low volatility低波动
+0.3
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+0.4
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.1
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.7

Company Profile公司档案

Ulta Beauty, Inc., formerly known as Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc. and before 2000 as Ulta3, is an American chain of cosmetic stores headquartered in Bolingbrook, Illinois.UltaBeauty,Inc.（Ulta美容公司），原名UltaSalon,Cosmetics&FragranceInc.，2000年前称Ulta3，是一家美国化妆品连锁店，总部位于伊利诺伊州博林布鲁克。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
  • Receivables stretch
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