Qualcomm · Tech
QCOM
$189.16
Qualcomm Incorporated is an American multinational technology corporation headquartered in San Diego, California.高通公司是一家美国跨国科技公司，总部位于加利福尼亚州圣地亚哥。
High-beta momentum高贝塔动量
Large cap大盘
$184B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Constructive — building a base建设性 — 正在筑底
The daily turn is already in — a low formed ~5 day(s) ago @ 176.25 and price is back above the 10-day average. What's mi日线转向已经完成——低点于约 5 天前形成 @ 176.25，且价格已重新站上 10 日均线。尚缺的是周线周期的确认，因此这是当下可用的部分信心入场，而非待触发信号：可在此建半仓，或等待周线转向。
Price Chart价格图表
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$189.16
24.6% below 52-week high低于52周高点 24.6%
Market Cap市值
$184B
Light volume成交量清淡
P/E Ratio市盈率
33.3x
40.2x sector median
Beta贝塔
2.03
Moves about 2.0x the market波动幅度约为市场的 2.0 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
45
Neutral zone中性区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-07-29 (10d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
82th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
3.7% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | QCOM | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +7.3% | +1.4% | Beat the index by 5.9 points跑赢指数 5.9 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | -1.1% | +4.3% | Lagged the index by 5.4 points落后指数 5.4 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | +47.7% | +11.1% | Beat the index by 36.6 points跑赢指数 36.6 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | +7.1% | +9.1% | Lagged the index by 2.0 points落后指数 2.0 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | +10.1% | +10.8% | In line with the index与指数基本持平 |
| 1 Year近1年 | +21.0% | +21.7% | In line with the index与指数基本持平 |
| 3 Years近3年 | +72.1% | +76.7% | Lagged the index by 4.6 points落后指数 4.6 个百分点 |
| 5 Years近5年 | +48.4% | +85.0% | Lagged the index by 36.6 points落后指数 36.6 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
Active signals活跃信号
Double Bottom (Long-term)Short-term Rising Trend1-Day Return (cross-sectional rank → top/bottom gainers)Valuation cheapness percentile (0–1, higher = cheaper vs peers)Insider Power (0–100) — quality-weighted Form-4 open-market trades (role × size × recency); 50 = neutral
RSI (14)RSI（14）
45
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线
-8.5% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+12.5% vs 200-day avg
Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度（ADX）
12
No clear trend无明显趋势
Volatility rank波动率分位
82th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$184.65
Don't chase above不追高于
$192.80
Stop止损
$176.20
Cycle turn — awaiting confluence cross周期拐点 — 等待共振交叉确认
Earnings财务业绩
10
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-07-29
Estimates being raised — 14 analysts预期上调 — 14 位分析师
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | QCOM | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 33.30x | 40.17 | 56% |
| P/S市销率 | 4.17x | 4.85 | 55% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 3.00% | 2.19 | 63% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 6.95% | 3.05 | 81% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 4.76% | 2.16 | 79% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 13.88x | 29.30 | 79% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 14.39x | 30.46 | 78% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 13.5%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 2.1%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
10.4%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | 0.67 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 2.82 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $8.8B |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $2.8B |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | -2.9% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 6/9
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (6.5)
Watch关注
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜
Cheaper than 68% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 68% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
2.03×
0.21×3×
Moves about 2.0× the market波动幅度约为市场的 2.0 倍
Financial Health财务健康
6/9
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Technology (Equal-Weight) theme — #23 of 46 themes「信息技术（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 23 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
QCOM StochRSI turned up from oversoldQCOM StochRSI自超卖区上行
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±4.52%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±10.10%
Call wall看涨密集区
$190
Put wall看跌密集区
$160
Gamma flip伽玛翻转
$192
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-4.1%
Flow资金流向
$210M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 63 fresh positions; P/C 1.47; ~leans bearish/hedging (direction approx)成交权利金 $210M；0DTE占0%；63个新建仓；看跌看涨比 1.47；≈偏看跌/对冲（方向近似）
Skew: 偏斜：fear
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$35.4M net (0 buyers, 6 sellers)-$35.4M 净值（0 买家，6 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Activity动作 | % of portfolio组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coatue Management | A | New position新建仓 | 0.6% | 2026-03-31 |
| Appaloosa (Tepper) | A | trimtrim | 1.1% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal History信号历史
TURN SIGNALED
BOTTOMING
Jul 8, 2026
QCOM StochRSI turned up from oversoldQCOM StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $186.56.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$186.56。
Jun 26, 2026
NEARING A LOW → DOWNTREND接近低点 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jun 25, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → NEARING A LOW未确认转向 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jun 24, 2026
BOTTOMING → UNCONFIRMED TURN筑底中 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jun 18, 2026
QCOM took relative-strength leadershipQCOM 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $226.11.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$226.11。
Jun 16, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jun 15, 2026
QCOM StochRSI turned up from oversoldQCOM StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $220.81.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$220.81。
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Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.28
Value价值
-0.3
Quality质量
+1.6
Investment资本投入
+0.8
Shareholder payout股东回报
+0.2
Low volatility低波动
-0.8
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-1.6
Earnings quality盈利质量
+1.8
Short interest空头兴趣
+1.1
Company Profile公司档案
Qualcomm Incorporated is an American multinational technology corporation headquartered in San Diego, California.高通公司是一家美国跨国科技公司，总部位于加利福尼亚州圣地亚哥。
Demand chain:需求链： Hyperscaler capex accelerating (+69% YoY to ~$379B) — the demand pool for AI accelerator / compute silicon云厂商资本开支加速（同比+69%，约 $379B）——AI 加速器／算力芯片的需求来源
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Margin compression despite revenue growth
Get the full picture获取完整视图
Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。