IBM · Tech
IBM
$212.67
International Business Machines Corporation, doing business as IBM, is an American multinational technology company headquartered in Armonk, New York, and present in over 175 countries. It is a publicly traded company and one of the 30 companies in the Dow...国际商业机器公司（以IBM名义经营）是一家总部位于纽约州阿蒙克市、业务覆盖超过175个国家的美国跨国科技公司。该公司为上市公司，也是道琼斯工业平均指数30支成分股之一。
Mixed profile混合特征
Large cap大盘
$199B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Hold off — timing against you暂缓 — 时机不利
Downtrend — stand aside until a new cycle low forms and confirms.下跌趋势——观望，直至新的周期低点形成并确认。
Price Chart价格图表
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$212.67
35.4% below 52-week high低于52周高点 35.4%
Market Cap市值
$199B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
18.8x
40.2x sector median
Forward P/E预测市盈率
16.2x
EPS每股收益 $11.31
Beta贝塔
0.86
Moves about 0.9x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.9 倍
Dividend Yield股息收益率
3.18%
RSI (14)RSI（14）
31
Depressed偏低
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-07-22 (3d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
100th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
3.7% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | IBM | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -26.0% | -1.5% | Lagged the index by 24.5 points落后指数 24.5 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | -18.9% | +0.6% | Lagged the index by 19.5 points落后指数 19.5 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | -15.5% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 20.2 points落后指数 20.2 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | -29.5% | +7.8% | Lagged the index by 37.3 points落后指数 37.3 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | -26.1% | +9.1% | Lagged the index by 35.2 points落后指数 35.2 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | -22.7% | +19.4% | Lagged the index by 42.1 points落后指数 42.1 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | +73.1% | +69.4% | Beat the index by 3.7 points跑赢指数 3.7 个百分点 |
| 5 Years近5年 | +94.8% | +83.9% | Beat the index by 10.9 points跑赢指数 10.9 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
Active signals活跃信号
RSI-14 Oversold Entry1-Day Return (cross-sectional rank → top/bottom gainers)Valuation cheapness percentile (0–1, higher = cheaper vs peers)Insider Power (0–100) — quality-weighted Form-4 open-market trades (role × size × recency); 50 = neutralIchimoku — Price Below Cloud
RSI (14)RSI（14）
31
Depressed偏低
vs 50-day相对50日均线
-18.7% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
-21.6% vs 200-day avg
Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度（ADX）
28
Trending趋势中
Volatility rank波动率分位
100th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Stop止损
$211.20
Blocked — failed cycle受阻 — 失败周期
Earnings财务业绩
3
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-07-22
Estimates roughly stable预期基本稳定
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | IBM | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 18.81x | 40.17 | 79% |
| P/E (forward)市盈率（预测） | 16.2x | — | — |
| P/B市净率 | 6.10x | 5.85 | 48% |
| P/S市销率 | 2.95x | 4.85 | 68% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 5.32% | 2.19 | 82% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 6.07% | 3.05 | 76% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 3.14% | 2.16 | 65% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 16.47x | 30.46 | 74% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: -1.7%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 12.4%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
32.4%Return on Equity股本回报率
7.0%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Current ratio流动比率 | 0.96 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $1.7B |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | +1.2% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 6/9
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: grey (2.9)
Clean稳健
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜
Cheaper than 68% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 68% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
0.86×
0.21×3×
Moves about 0.9× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.9 倍
Financial Health财务健康
6/9
Altman阿尔特曼: grey
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
3.18%
Pays a dividend (3.18% yield)有分红（收益率 3.18%）
Why Is It Moving为何波动
News新闻
3 recent stories — mixed3 篇最新报道，多空参半
Sector / Theme行业/主题
AI Software & Platforms theme — #11 of 46 themes「AI 软件与平台」主题 — 46 个主题中第 11 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Short interest changed +14.5%空头仓位变动 +14.5%
Technical技术面
IBM made a new 52-week lowIBM 创52周新低
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±3.02%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±6.75%
Call wall看涨密集区
$225
Put wall看跌密集区
$200
Gamma flip伽玛翻转
$229
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
1.0%
Flow资金流向
$369M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 130 fresh positions; P/C 0.62; net new CALL positioning (bullish lean) (ΔOI +102,460); ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $369M；0DTE占0%；130个新建仓；看跌看涨比 0.62；净新增看涨持仓（偏多）（ΔOI +102,460）；≈偏看涨（方向近似）
Skew: 偏斜：greed
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: +$0.4M net (3 buyers, 0 sellers)+$0.4M 净值（3 买家，0 卖家）
Signal History信号历史
DECLINE
DOWNTREND
Jul 15, 2026
IBM made a new 52-week lowIBM 创52周新低
Price reached a fresh 52-week low — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $211.20.价格创出52周新低 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$211.20。
Jul 15, 2026
IBM RSI reached oversoldIBM RSI进入超卖
RSI(14) crossed below 30 — washed out; context, not a timing trigger alone. $211.20.RSI(14)下穿30 — 超卖；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$211.20。
Jul 14, 2026
IBM lost its 200-day averageIBM 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $217.07.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$217.07。
Jul 14, 2026
IBM broke down vs the marketIBM 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $217.07.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$217.07。
Jul 14, 2026
IBM daily MACD crossed downIBM 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $217.07.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$217.07。
Jul 13, 2026
NEARING A LOW → BOTTOMING接近低点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 10, 2026
UPTREND → NEARING A LOW上涨趋势 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jul 9, 2026
BUY ZONE → UPTREND买入区 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jul 6, 2026
BOTTOMING → BUY ZONE筑底中 → 买入区
BUY买入
Jul 1, 2026
IBM took relative-strength leadershipIBM 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $286.25.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$286.25。
Jul 1, 2026
IBM daily MACD crossed upIBM 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $286.25.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$286.25。
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Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.38
Value价值
-0.5
Profitability盈利能力
-0.3
Quality质量
-0.5
Investment资本投入
-0.1
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.2
Low volatility低波动
-0.6
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-0.0
Earnings quality盈利质量
-0.5
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.3
Company Profile公司档案
International Business Machines Corporation, doing business as IBM, is an American multinational technology company headquartered in Armonk, New York, and present in over 175 countries. It is a publicly traded company and one of the 30 companies in the Dow...国际商业机器公司（以IBM名义经营）是一家总部位于纽约州阿蒙克市、业务覆盖超过175个国家的美国跨国科技公司。该公司为上市公司，也是道琼斯工业平均指数30支成分股之一。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Receivables stretch
Recent News最新动态
International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) $68 Billion Wipeout Amid Z Shortfall Triggers Investigation - HBSS
GlobeNewswire Inc.
2026-07-17
Unipart, KBR and IBM launch Team ORION to future-proof defence operations
GlobeNewswire Inc.
2026-07-17
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Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。