Polaris · Consumer Disc.
PII
$73.20
Polaris Inc. is an American automotive manufacturer headquartered in Medina, Minnesota, United States.PolarisInc.是一家美国汽车制造商，总部位于美国明尼苏达州麦迪纳。
Speculative / unprofitable投机／未盈利
Mid cap中盘
$4B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
Confirmed cycle low — the entry window is open now, with a clear exit if it closes back below 63.12.周期低点已确认——入场窗口现已开启，若收盘重新跌破 63.12 则明确离场。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$73.20
0.8% below 52-week high低于52周高点 0.8%
Market Cap市值
$4B
Normal volume正常成交量
Beta贝塔
1.45
Moves about 1.5x the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.5 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
62
Elevated偏高
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-08-04 (16d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
54th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
6.6% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | PII | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +8.6% | -1.5% | Beat the index by 10.1 points跑赢指数 10.1 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | +6.7% | +0.6% | Beat the index by 6.1 points跑赢指数 6.1 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | +27.6% | +4.7% | Beat the index by 22.9 points跑赢指数 22.9 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | +6.9% | +7.8% | In line with the index与指数基本持平 |
| Year to date年初至今 | +12.4% | +9.1% | Beat the index by 3.3 points跑赢指数 3.3 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | +62.6% | +19.4% | Beat the index by 43.2 points跑赢指数 43.2 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | -37.5% | +69.4% | Lagged the index by 106.9 points落后指数 106.9 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
62
Elevated偏高
vs 50-day相对50日均线
+8.3% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+15.4% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
54th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$71.94
Don't chase above不追高于
$74.21
Stop止损
$63.12
Cycle turn — awaiting confluence cross周期拐点 — 等待共振交叉确认
Earnings财务业绩
16
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-08-04
Estimates being cut预期下调
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | PII | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/B市净率 | 4.99x | 2.97 | 32% |
| P/S市销率 | 0.58x | 1.23 | 72% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | -11.26% | 4.53 | 5% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 13.49% | 5.69 | 91% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 3.69% | 4.31 | 42% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 7.41x | 16.53 | 90% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 0.4%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
-56.2%Return on Equity股本回报率
-9.5%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Current ratio流动比率 | 0.98 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $2.4M |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $59.9M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | +0.7% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 4/9
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: distress (1.7)
Watch关注
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜
Cheaper than 65% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 65% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
1.45×
0.21×3×
Moves about 1.5× the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.5 倍
Financial Health财务健康
4/9
Altman阿尔特曼: distress
Weak financial health财务健康状况偏弱
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
PII made a new 52-week highPII 创52周新高
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$4.2M net (0 buyers, 4 sellers)-$4.2M 净值（0 买家，4 卖家）
Signal History信号历史
FRESH BUY
BUY ZONE
Jul 16, 2026
PII made a new 52-week highPII 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $73.78.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$73.78。
Jul 15, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BUY ZONE接近高点 → 买入区
BUY买入
Jul 15, 2026
PII took relative-strength leadershipPII 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $71.49.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$71.49。
Jul 15, 2026
PII daily MACD crossed upPII 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $71.49.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$71.49。
Jul 10, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 9, 2026
PII StochRSI turned up from oversoldPII StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $65.83.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$65.83。
Jul 6, 2026
NEARING A LOW → BOTTOMING接近低点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 2, 2026
PII printed a daily-cycle lowPII 打出日线周期低点
A confirmed local low — in this cycle framework the highest-odds long-entry window. $63.12.一个已确认的局部低点 — 在本周期框架中做多胜率最高的入场窗口。$63.12。
Jul 1, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A LOW筑底中 → 接近低点
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Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.21
Value价值
-0.6
Profitability盈利能力
-0.2
Quality质量
+2.1
Investment资本投入
+1.2
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.1
Low volatility低波动
-1.1
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-0.8
Earnings quality盈利质量
+3.0
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.1
Company Profile公司档案
Polaris Inc. is an American automotive manufacturer headquartered in Medina, Minnesota, United States.PolarisInc.是一家美国汽车制造商，总部位于美国明尼苏达州麦迪纳。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Receivables stretch
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Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。