OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet · $66.51 Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势 Terminal终端 ↗

Ollie's Bargain Outlet · Consumer Disc.

OLLI

$66.51

Ollie's Bargain Outlet is an American discount store chain. It was founded in Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania, in 1982 by Morton Bernstein, Mark Butler, Harry Coverman, and Oliver "Ollie" Rosenberg, the company's namesake.Ollie'sBargainOutlet是一家美国折扣连锁店，1982年由MortonBernstein、MarkButler、HarryCoverman和以公司命名的Oliver"Ollie"Rosenberg在宾夕法尼亚州梅卡尼克斯堡创立。

Rate-sensitive利率敏感 Mid cap中盘 $4B

Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20

Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势

Daily low forming, but the bigger trend is still bearish. Small size only; stop below 61.88.日线低点正在形成，但大趋势仍偏空。只适合小仓位；止损设于 61.88 下方。

Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗ All coverage所有股票 Data through数据截至 2026-07-20 · regenerated nightly每日更新

Key Statistics关键统计

Price价格

$66.51

52.8% below 52-week high低于52周高点 52.8%

Market Cap市值

$4B

Normal volume正常成交量

P/E Ratio市盈率

16.9x

20.2x sector median

Beta贝塔

0.78

Moves about 0.8x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.8 倍

RSI (14)RSI（14）

Depressed偏低

Volatility Rank波动率分位

95th pctile

hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数

Short Interest空头兴趣

10.4% of float

Performance价格表现

Period周期	OLLI	S&P 500	vs Index对比指数
1 Week近1周	+2.5%	-1.5%	Beat the index by 4.0 points跑赢指数 4.0 个百分点
1 Month近1月	-14.1%	+0.6%	Lagged the index by 14.7 points落后指数 14.7 个百分点
3 Months近3月	-29.9%	+4.7%	Lagged the index by 34.6 points落后指数 34.6 个百分点
6 Months近6月	-43.0%	+7.8%	Lagged the index by 50.8 points落后指数 50.8 个百分点
Year to date年初至今	-40.3%	+9.1%	Lagged the index by 49.4 points落后指数 49.4 个百分点
1 Year近1年	-49.6%	+19.4%	Lagged the index by 69.0 points落后指数 69.0 个百分点
3 Years近3年	-6.6%	+69.4%	Lagged the index by 76.0 points落后指数 76.0 个百分点

Technicals技术面

RSI (14)RSI（14） 39 Depressed偏低

vs 50-day相对50日均线 -12.4% vs 50-day avg

vs 200-day相对200日均线 -34.8% vs 200-day avg

Volatility rank波动率分位 95th percentile 分位

Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议

Buy zone买入区间

$65.79

Don't chase above不追高于

$66.51

Stop止损

$61.88

Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望

Earnings财务业绩

Estimates roughly stable预期基本稳定

Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线

Valuation估值

Multiple指标	OLLI	Sector median行业中位	Cheaper than相对便宜
P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史）	16.95x	20.23	61%
P/B市净率	2.16x	2.97	59%
P/S市销率	1.54x	1.23	41%
Earnings yield盈利收益率	5.90%	4.53	66%
FCF yield自由现金流收益率	4.77%	5.69	40%
Shareholder yield股东收益率	1.81%	4.31	21%
EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA	10.82x	11.48	54%
P/FCF市值/自由现金流	20.96x	16.53	35%

Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线

Financials财务数据

Revenue营业收入

$1.4B

2019

$1.8B

2020

$1.8B

2021

$1.8B

2022

$2.1B

2024

$2.6B

2025

5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 13.5%

Earnings Per Share每股收益

$2.14

2019

$3.68

2020

$2.43

2021

$1.64

2022

$2.92

2024

$3.89

2025

5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 12.7%

Free Cash Flow自由现金流

$28.4M

2019

$330.7M

2020

$10.0M

2021

$62.7M

2022

$130.1M

2024

$194.7M

2025

Margins利润率

Gross margin毛利率

40.5%

Operating margin营业利润率

11.2%

Net margin净利率

9.1%

FCF margin自由现金流利润率

11.2%

12.7%Return on Equity股本回报率

8.1%Return on Assets资产回报率

Leverage杠杆

Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA	-0.74
Current ratio流动比率	2.41

Capital Allocation资本配置

Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）	$73.8M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬	$13.1M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）	+0.1%

Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 5/7 Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (4.5) Clean稳健

Snapshot Gauges综合指标

Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业

Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理

Cheaper than 51% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 51% 的公司

Beta市场敏感度

0.78×

0.21×3×

Moves about 0.8× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.8 倍

Financial Health财务健康

5/7

Altman阿尔特曼: safe

Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般

Dividend分红

—

Does not pay a dividend不派发股息

Why Is It Moving为何波动

Sector / Theme行业/主题 Retail theme — #24 of 46 themes「零售」主题 — 46 个主题中第 24 位

Macro宏观 Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。

Positioning持仓 Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易

Technical技术面 OLLI StochRSI turned up from oversoldOLLI StochRSI自超卖区上行

Options Positioning期权持仓

Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大

Expected daily move预期日波动

±3.06%

Expected weekly move预期周波动

±6.85%

Put wall看跌密集区

$60

25d risk reversal25d风险逆转

-2.1%

Flow资金流向

$0M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; P/C 0.48; ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $0M；0DTE占0%；看跌看涨比 0.48；≈偏看涨（方向近似）

Skew: 偏斜：balanced

Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱

Insider activity内部人员活动: -$2.5M net (0 buyers, 4 sellers)-$2.5M 净值（0 买家，4 卖家）

Signal History信号历史

DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向

HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY. A daily bottoming setup is forming (swing low in, momentum turned up) — but the higher timeframes haven't confirmed it: the bigger picture is still bearish (weekly momentum negative; investor cycle failed (broke its start low); investor cycle overdue; last cycle left-translated (topped early)). This is an UNCONFIRMED TURN, not a confirmed buy. Weekly confirmation lags price, so this exact reading covers BOTH bounces that fail AND the first leg of a genuine new cycle — you can't tell which in real time, so treat it as a risk/size signal, not a direction call. Measured: weekly-unconfirmed bottoming setups held the low ~49% of the time vs ~68% once the weekly turns up. The daily cycle has also failed (broke its own start low), which tilts the odds toward failure here. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell高风险 · 仅限灵活操作。正在形成日线筑底形态（摆动低点已现、动量转向上行）——但更高周期尚未确认：大局仍偏空（周线动量为负；投资者周期失败（跌破起始低点）；投资者周期已逾期；上一周期左移（见顶偏早））。这是「未确认转向」，并非已确认的买入。周线确认滞后于价格，因此同样的读数既涵盖最终失败的反弹，也涵盖真正新周期的第一段——实时无法判定属于哪一种，故应将其视为风险/仓位信号，而非方向判断。实测：周线未确认的筑底形态约 49% 守住低点，周线转向后升至约 68%。日线周期同样已经失败（跌破其自身起始低点），此处概率更偏向失败。上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号

COUNTERTREND BOUNCE UNCONFIRMED TURN

Jul 13, 2026

OLLI StochRSI turned up from oversoldOLLI StochRSI自超卖区上行

StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $65.33.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$65.33。

Jul 8, 2026

OLLI RSI reached oversoldOLLI RSI进入超卖

RSI(14) crossed below 30 — washed out; context, not a timing trigger alone. $61.88.RSI(14)下穿30 — 超卖；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$61.88。

Jul 6, 2026

UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势

AVOID回避

Jul 6, 2026

OLLI made a new 52-week lowOLLI 创52周新低

Price reached a fresh 52-week low — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $69.17.价格创出52周新低 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$69.17。

Jul 1, 2026

OLLI broke down vs the marketOLLI 相对市场走弱

Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $75.51.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$75.51。

Jun 30, 2026

DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向

HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作

Jun 30, 2026

OLLI StochRSI turned up from oversoldOLLI StochRSI自超卖区上行

StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $76.88.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$76.88。

Jun 25, 2026

OLLI made a new 52-week lowOLLI 创52周新低

Price reached a fresh 52-week low — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $71.41.价格创出52周新低 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$71.41。

Jun 22, 2026

NEARING A LOW → DOWNTREND接近低点 → 下跌趋势

AVOID回避