Paychex · Industrials
PAYX
$114.39
Paychex, Inc. is an American company that provides human resources, payroll, and employee benefits outsourcing services for small- to medium-sized businesses.佩切克斯公司（Paychex,Inc.）是一家美国企业，为中小型企业提供人力资源、薪资和员工福利外包服务。
Cyclical周期股
Large cap大盘
$41B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
You missed the bottoming entry — the low already formed and price is now extended (overbought (daily RSI 72)). Don't cha已错过筑底入场——低点已经形成，目前价格已拉伸（已超买（日线 RSI 72））。不要追高；等待回调至 10 日均线或下一个周期低点。若已持有则继续持有。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$114.39
20.1% below 52-week high低于52周高点 20.1%
Market Cap市值
$41B
Normal volume正常成交量
Beta贝塔
0.10
Moves about 0.1x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.1 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
72
Overbought超买区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-06-24 (-25d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
87th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
5.7% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | PAYX | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +6.4% | -1.5% | Beat the index by 7.9 points跑赢指数 7.9 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | +17.2% | +0.6% | Beat the index by 16.6 points跑赢指数 16.6 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | +26.0% | +4.7% | Beat the index by 21.3 points跑赢指数 21.3 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | +5.3% | +7.8% | Lagged the index by 2.5 points落后指数 2.5 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | +7.8% | +9.1% | Lagged the index by 1.3 points落后指数 1.3 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | -16.9% | +19.4% | Lagged the index by 36.3 points落后指数 36.3 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
72
Overbought超买区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线
+15.0% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+11.7% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
87th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$106.80
Don't chase above不追高于
$114.40
Stop止损
$95.93
Extended — wait for a pullback过度拉伸 — 等待回撤
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates being raised — 12 analysts预期上调 — 12 位分析师
Post-earnings drift: +17.0% (20d)财报后漂移：+17.0%（20日）
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | PAYX | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/B市净率 | 10.58x | 3.90 | 15% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 4.16% | 3.81 | 57% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 18.36x | 16.39 | 40% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 24.03x | 25.50 | 54% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 6.6%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 8.5%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | 1.37 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 1.28 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $104.5M |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $111.8M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | -0.3% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 4/9
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (3.1)
Clean稳健
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理
Cheaper than 37% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 37% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
0.10×
0.21×3×
Moves about 0.1× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.1 倍
Financial Health财务健康
4/9
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Weak financial health财务健康状况偏弱
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Industrials (Equal-Weight) theme — #15 of 46 themes「工业（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 15 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
PAYX RSI reached overboughtPAYX RSI进入超买
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±1.89%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±4.24%
Call wall看涨密集区
$115
Gamma flip伽玛翻转
$86
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-3.1%
Skew: 偏斜：fear
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: +$0.2M net (2 buyers, 0 sellers)+$0.2M 净值（2 买家，0 卖家）
Signal History信号历史
TOP WATCH
NEARING A HIGH
Jul 16, 2026
PAYX RSI reached overboughtPAYX RSI进入超买
RSI(14) crossed above 70 — stretched to the upside; context, not a timing trigger alone. $114.70.RSI(14)上穿70 — 上行过度；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$114.70。
Jul 15, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 10, 2026
BOTTOMING → UPTREND筑底中 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jul 7, 2026
PAYX took relative-strength leadershipPAYX 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $108.12.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$108.12。
Jul 6, 2026
BUY ZONE → BOTTOMING买入区 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 2, 2026
PAYX reclaimed its 200-day averagePAYX 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $106.35.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$106.35。
Jul 2, 2026
PAYX took relative-strength leadershipPAYX 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $106.35.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$106.35。
Jul 2, 2026
PAYX daily MACD crossed upPAYX 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $106.35.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$106.35。
Jun 29, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BUY ZONE接近高点 → 买入区
BUY买入
Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 94 signals条信号
Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -1.03
Value价值
-2.1
Quality质量
+0.0
Investment资本投入
-2.9
Low volatility低波动
+0.8
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+1.0
Short interest空头兴趣
-0.2
Company Profile公司档案
Paychex, Inc. is an American company that provides human resources, payroll, and employee benefits outsourcing services for small- to medium-sized businesses.佩切克斯公司（Paychex,Inc.）是一家美国企业，为中小型企业提供人力资源、薪资和员工福利外包服务。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Capital intensity rising
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