Carvana · Consumer Disc.
CVNA
$67.34
Carvana Co. is an American online used car retailer based in Tempe, Arizona.Carvana公司是一家美国在线二手车零售商，总部位于亚利桑那州坦佩。
Cyclical周期股
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
A normal mid-cycle dip below the 10-day average — the real cycle low isn't due for ~9+ trading days. Wait for support to这是跌破 10 日均线的正常周期中段回调——真正的周期低点要到约 9+ 个交易日后才会到来。等待支撑站稳，或等下一个低点构筑成形。
Price Chart价格图表
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$67.34
29.6% below 52-week high低于52周高点 29.6%
Forward P/E预测市盈率
34.2x
Beta贝塔
2.35
Moves about 2.4x the market波动幅度约为市场的 2.4 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
49
Neutral zone中性区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-07-29 (10d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
44th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | CVNA | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +2.3% | -1.5% | Beat the index by 3.8 points跑赢指数 3.8 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | +7.1% | +0.6% | Beat the index by 6.5 points跑赢指数 6.5 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | -13.1% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 17.8 points落后指数 17.8 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | -24.0% | +7.8% | Lagged the index by 31.8 points落后指数 31.8 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | -15.9% | +9.1% | Lagged the index by 25.0 points落后指数 25.0 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | -2.7% | +19.4% | Lagged the index by 22.1 points落后指数 22.1 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | +746.0% | +69.4% | Beat the index by 676.6 points跑赢指数 676.6 个百分点 |
| 5 Years近5年 | +7.5% | +83.9% | Lagged the index by 76.4 points落后指数 76.4 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
Active signals活跃信号
MA Sell (7)MA Sell (35)MA Sell (100)1-Day Return (cross-sectional rank → top/bottom gainers)Strong 1-Day Move Flag
RSI (14)RSI（14）
49
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线
-1.7% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
-7.5% vs 200-day avg
Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度（ADX）
10
No clear trend无明显趋势
Volatility rank波动率分位
44th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$67.08
Don't chase above不追高于
$67.34
Stop止损
$62.35
Wait for the pullback等待回撤
Earnings财务业绩
10
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-07-29
Estimates being raised — 6 analysts预期上调 — 6 位分析师
Post-earnings drift: -11.9% (20d)财报后漂移：-11.9%（20日）
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 29.5%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
40.9%Return on Equity股本回报率
10.7%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Current ratio流动比率 | 4.31 |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 5/8
Watch关注
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Beta市场敏感度
2.35×
0.21×3×
Moves about 2.4× the market波动幅度约为市场的 2.4 倍
Financial Health财务健康
5/8
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Consumer Discretionary (Equal-Weight) theme — #34 of 46 themes「非必需消费（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 34 位
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
NEARING A LOW → BOTTOMING接近低点 → 筑底中
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±5.45%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±12.19%
Call wall看涨密集区
$70
Put wall看跌密集区
$60
Gamma flip伽玛翻转
$65
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-1.3%
Skew: 偏斜：balanced
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$257.7M net (0 buyers, 11 sellers)-$257.7M 净值（0 买家，11 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Activity动作 | % of portfolio组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 Capital Partners | A | New position新建仓 | 1.9% | 2026-03-31 |
| Dragoneer Investment Group | C | Adding加仓 | 13.1% | 2026-03-31 |
| Sachem Head Capital | D | Adding加仓 | 6.0% | 2026-03-31 |
| Viking Global (Halvorsen) | B | Adding加仓 | 2.4% | 2026-03-31 |
| Lone Pine Capital | B | Holding持有 | 4.4% | 2026-03-31 |
| Durable Capital Partners | B | Holding持有 | 3.2% | 2026-03-31 |
| Whale Rock Capital | A | trimtrim | 3.6% | 2026-03-31 |
| Coatue Management | A | trimtrim | 0.7% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal History信号历史
BOTTOM WATCH
NEARING A LOW
Jul 14, 2026
NEARING A LOW → BOTTOMING接近低点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 13, 2026
CVNA broke down vs the marketCVNA 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $64.99.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$64.99。
Jul 7, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 6, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → BOTTOMING未确认转向 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 1, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → UNCONFIRMED TURN接近高点 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 1, 2026
CVNA daily MACD crossed upCVNA 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $67.87.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$67.87。
Jun 30, 2026
TOPPING → NEARING A HIGH做顶中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jun 29, 2026
DOWNTREND → TOPPING下跌趋势 → 做顶中
SELL SETUP卖出预备
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Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -1.31
Profitability盈利能力
+0.0
Quality质量
-1.0
Investment资本投入
-2.8
Low volatility低波动
-1.5
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-2.0
Earnings quality盈利质量
-1.4
Short interest空头兴趣
-1.1
Company Profile公司档案
Carvana Co. is an American online used car retailer based in Tempe, Arizona.Carvana公司是一家美国在线二手车零售商，总部位于亚利桑那州坦佩。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Margin compression despite revenue growth
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Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。