Microchip Technology · Tech
MCHP
$80.96
Microchip Technology Incorporated is an American publicly traded semiconductor corporation that manufactures microcontrollers, microprocessors, integrated circuits, and flash memory.微芯科技公司是一家美国上市公司，是一家半导体公司，生产微控制器、微处理器、集成电路和闪存。
High-beta momentum高贝塔动量
Large cap大盘
$44B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Hold off — timing against you暂缓 — 时机不利
Downtrend — stand aside until a new cycle low forms and confirms.下跌趋势——观望，直至新的周期低点形成并确认。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$80.96
21.2% below 52-week high低于52周高点 21.2%
Market Cap市值
$44B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
190.5x
40.2x sector median
Beta贝塔
1.93
Moves about 1.9x the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.9 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
39
Depressed偏低
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-08-06 (18d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
94th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
7.3% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | MCHP | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -8.6% | -1.5% | Lagged the index by 7.1 points落后指数 7.1 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | -14.0% | +0.6% | Lagged the index by 14.6 points落后指数 14.6 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | +3.3% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 1.4 points落后指数 1.4 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | +9.6% | +7.8% | Beat the index by 1.8 points跑赢指数 1.8 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | +25.9% | +9.1% | Beat the index by 16.8 points跑赢指数 16.8 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | +11.9% | +19.4% | Lagged the index by 7.5 points落后指数 7.5 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
39
Depressed偏低
vs 50-day相对50日均线
-12.5% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+9.1% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
94th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Stop止损
$80.96
Blocked — failed cycle受阻 — 失败周期
Earnings财务业绩
18
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-08-06
Estimates being raised — 1 analysts预期上调 — 1 位分析师
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | MCHP | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 190.48x | 40.17 | 8% |
| P/B市净率 | 6.68x | 5.85 | 44% |
| P/S市销率 | 9.30x | 4.85 | 23% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 0.52% | 2.19 | 21% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 1.76% | 3.05 | 30% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 2.25% | 2.16 | 53% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 46.51x | 29.30 | 33% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 56.74x | 30.46 | 24% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: -5.2%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
3.5%Return on Equity股本回报率
1.6%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | 4.64 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 2.59 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $180.4M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | +0.6% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 3/9
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (4.2)
Warning警示
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵
Cheaper than 28% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 28% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
1.93×
0.21×3×
Moves about 1.9× the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.9 倍
Financial Health财务健康
3/9
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Weak financial health财务健康状况偏弱
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Technology (Equal-Weight) theme — #23 of 46 themes「信息技术（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 23 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±4.81%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±10.76%
Call wall看涨密集区
$85
Put wall看跌密集区
$74
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-2.7%
Flow资金流向
$14M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 40 fresh positions; P/C 1.88; ~leans bearish/hedging (direction approx)成交权利金 $14M；0DTE占0%；40个新建仓；看跌看涨比 1.88；≈偏看跌/对冲（方向近似）
Skew: 偏斜：balanced
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$19.0M net (0 buyers, 4 sellers)-$19.0M 净值（0 买家，4 卖家）
Signal History信号历史
DECLINE
DOWNTREND
Jul 13, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 10, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → UNCONFIRMED TURN接近高点 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 10, 2026
MCHP StochRSI turned up from oversoldMCHP StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $88.59.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$88.59。
Jul 9, 2026
DOWNTREND → NEARING A HIGH下跌趋势 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 3, 2026
MCHP weekly MACD crossed downMCHP 周线MACD下穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned negative — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转负 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Jul 2, 2026
NEARING A LOW → DOWNTREND接近低点 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jun 25, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → NEARING A LOW未确认转向 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jun 24, 2026
MCHP daily MACD crossed downMCHP 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $92.48.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$92.48。
Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 104 signals条信号
Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.34
Value价值
-0.9
Profitability盈利能力
-0.7
Quality质量
-0.4
Investment资本投入
+1.0
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.5
Low volatility低波动
-0.6
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-1.4
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.0
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.3
Company Profile公司档案
Microchip Technology Incorporated is an American publicly traded semiconductor corporation that manufactures microcontrollers, microprocessors, integrated circuits, and flash memory.微芯科技公司是一家美国上市公司，是一家半导体公司，生产微控制器、微处理器、集成电路和闪存。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Inventory build
Get the full picture获取完整视图
Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。