Adobe Inc. · Tech
ADBE
$237.25
Adobe Inc., formerly Adobe Systems Incorporated, is an American multinational computer software company based in San Jose, California.Adobe公司，前身为Adobe系统公司，是一家美国跨国计算机软件公司，总部位于加利福尼亚州圣何塞。
Quality compounder优质复利股
Large cap大盘
$98B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
The daily turn is already in — a low formed ~15 day(s) ago @ 193.41 and price is back above the 10-day average. What's m日线转向已经完成——低点于约 15 天前形成 @ 193.41，且价格已重新站上 10 日均线。尚缺的是周线周期的确认，因此这是当下可用的部分信心入场，而非待触发信号：可在此建半仓，或等待周线转向。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$237.25
36.4% below 52-week high低于52周高点 36.4%
Market Cap市值
$98B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
13.7x
40.2x sector median
Beta贝塔
0.39
Moves about 0.4x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.4 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
61
Elevated偏高
Volatility Rank波动率分位
60th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
4.8% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | ADBE | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +6.1% | -1.5% | Beat the index by 7.6 points跑赢指数 7.6 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | +20.9% | +0.6% | Beat the index by 20.3 points跑赢指数 20.3 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | -2.9% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 7.6 points落后指数 7.6 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | -19.9% | +7.8% | Lagged the index by 27.7 points落后指数 27.7 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | -28.8% | +9.1% | Lagged the index by 37.9 points落后指数 37.9 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | -35.3% | +19.4% | Lagged the index by 54.7 points落后指数 54.7 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
61
Elevated偏高
vs 50-day相对50日均线
+2.9% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
-15.9% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
60th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$233.65
Don't chase above不追高于
$240.10
Stop止损
$193.40
Cycle turn — awaiting confluence cross周期拐点 — 等待共振交叉确认
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates being raised — 27 analysts预期上调 — 27 位分析师
Post-earnings drift: +11.8% (20d)财报后漂移：+11.8%（20日）
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | ADBE | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 13.74x | 40.17 | 91% |
| P/B市净率 | 8.43x | 5.85 | 32% |
| P/S市销率 | 4.12x | 4.85 | 56% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 7.28% | 2.19 | 93% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 10.05% | 3.05 | 90% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 11.51% | 2.16 | 94% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 10.37x | 29.30 | 88% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 9.95x | 30.46 | 89% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 13.1%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 9.0%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
61.3%Return on Equity股本回报率
24.2%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | 0.08 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 1.00 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $11.3B |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $1.9B |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | -6.3% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 7/9
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (7.2)
Clean稳健
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜
Cheaper than 71% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 71% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
0.39×
0.21×3×
Moves about 0.4× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.4 倍
Financial Health财务健康
7/9
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Strong financial health财务健康状况良好
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
AI Software & Platforms theme — #11 of 46 themes「AI 软件与平台」主题 — 46 个主题中第 11 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
BOTTOMING → UPTREND筑底中 → 上涨趋势
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±3.07%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±6.86%
Call wall看涨密集区
$240
Put wall看跌密集区
$210
Gamma flip伽玛翻转
$228
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
3.2%
Flow资金流向
$68M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 52 fresh positions; P/C 0.4; ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $68M；0DTE占0%；52个新建仓；看跌看涨比 0.4；≈偏看涨（方向近似）
Skew: 偏斜：greed
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$0.5M net (0 buyers, 2 sellers)-$0.5M 净值（0 买家，2 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Activity动作 | % of portfolio组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polen Capital Management | B | trimtrim | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
| Coatue Management | A | exitexit | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal History信号历史
TURN SIGNALED
BOTTOMING
Jul 15, 2026
BOTTOMING → UPTREND筑底中 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jul 10, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → BOTTOMING未确认转向 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 10, 2026
ADBE weekly MACD crossed upADBE 周线MACD上穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned positive — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转正 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Jul 1, 2026
ADBE daily MACD crossed upADBE 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $210.98.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$210.98。
Jun 30, 2026
ADBE broke down vs the marketADBE 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $205.02.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$205.02。
Jun 29, 2026
ADBE StochRSI turned up from oversoldADBE StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $206.43.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$206.43。
Jun 26, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jun 25, 2026
ADBE printed a daily-cycle lowADBE 打出日线周期低点
A confirmed local low — in this cycle framework the highest-odds long-entry window. $193.41.一个已确认的局部低点 — 在本周期框架中做多胜率最高的入场窗口。$193.41。
Jun 25, 2026
ADBE made a new 52-week lowADBE 创52周新低
Price reached a fresh 52-week low — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $193.41.价格创出52周新低 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$193.41。
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Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.95
Value价值
-0.4
Profitability盈利能力
+2.3
Quality质量
+1.1
Investment资本投入
+0.7
Shareholder payout股东回报
+1.9
Low volatility低波动
+0.2
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+0.6
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.8
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.7
Company Profile公司档案
Adobe Inc., formerly Adobe Systems Incorporated, is an American multinational computer software company based in San Jose, California.Adobe公司，前身为Adobe系统公司，是一家美国跨国计算机软件公司，总部位于加利福尼亚州圣何塞。
Demand chain:需求链： Contracted bookings (RPO) decelerating (+13% YoY to ~$22B, 0.9× revenue) — signed demand locked in ahead of recognition已签约订单（RPO）增速放缓（同比+13%，约 $22B，覆盖营收 0.9 倍）——已锁定、尚未确认的需求
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Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。