VSXY Victoria's Secret · $81.45 Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤 Terminal终端 ↗

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Victoria's Secret · Consumer Disc.

VSXY

$81.45
Victoria's Secret is an American lingerie, clothing and beauty retailer. Founded in 1977 by Stanford graduate student Roy Raymond and his wife Gaye, the company's five lingerie stores were sold to Les Wexner in 1982.Victoria'sSecret是一家美国内衣、服装和美容零售商。公司由斯坦福研究生RoyRaymond及其妻子Gaye于1977年创立，其五家内衣店于1982年出售给LesWexner。
Cyclical周期股 Mid cap中盘 $7B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
The daily turn is already in — a low formed ~6 day(s) ago @ 76.19 and price is back above the 10-day average. What's mis日线转向已经完成——低点于约 6 天前形成 @ 76.19，且价格已重新站上 10 日均线。尚缺的是周线周期的确认，因此这是当下可用的部分信心入场，而非待触发信号：可在此建半仓，或等待周线转向。
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Key Statistics关键统计

Price价格
$81.45
8.0% below 52-week high低于52周高点 8.0%
Market Cap市值
$7B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
40.5x
20.2x sector median
Beta贝塔
1.77
Moves about 1.8x the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.8 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
58
Neutral zone中性区域
Volatility Rank波动率分位
23th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
13.8% of float

Performance价格表现

Period周期 VSXY S&P 500vs Index对比指数
1 Week近1周 +3.9% -1.5% Beat the index by 5.4 points跑赢指数 5.4 个百分点
1 Month近1月 +3.7% +0.6% Beat the index by 3.1 points跑赢指数 3.1 个百分点
3 Months近3月 +48.8% +4.7% Beat the index by 44.1 points跑赢指数 44.1 个百分点
6 Months近6月 +36.1% +7.8% Beat the index by 28.3 points跑赢指数 28.3 个百分点
Year to date年初至今 +52.6% +9.1% Beat the index by 43.5 points跑赢指数 43.5 个百分点
1 Year近1年 +343.1% +19.4% Beat the index by 323.7 points跑赢指数 323.7 个百分点
3 Years近3年 +316.8% +69.4% Beat the index by 247.4 points跑赢指数 247.4 个百分点

Technicals技术面

RSI (14)RSI（14） 58 Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线 +18.4% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线 +53.1% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位 23th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$80.03
Don't chase above不追高于
$82.58
Stop止损
$76.19
Cycle turn — awaiting confluence cross周期拐点 — 等待共振交叉确认

Earnings财务业绩

Estimates being raised — 8 analysts预期上调 — 8 位分析师

Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线

Valuation估值

Multiple指标 VSXY Sector median行业中位 Cheaper than相对便宜
P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） 40.47x 20.23
11%
P/B市净率 7.61x 2.97
21%
P/S市销率 0.99x 1.23
55%
Earnings yield盈利收益率 2.47% 4.53
21%
FCF yield自由现金流收益率 4.79% 5.69
41%
Shareholder yield股东收益率 0.00% 4.31
3%
EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA 13.70x 11.48
36%
P/FCF市值/自由现金流 20.88x 16.53
36%
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线

Financials财务数据

Revenue营业收入
$6.8B
2021
$6.3B
2022
$6.2B
2023
$6.2B
2024
$6.6B
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: -0.9%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
$7.18
2021
$4.14
2022
$1.39
2023
$2.05
2024
$1.93
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: -28.0%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
$682.0M
2021
$273.0M
2022
$133.0M
2023
$247.0M
2024
$312.0M
2025
Margins利润率
Gross margin毛利率
36.4%
Operating margin营业利润率
4.1%
Net margin净利率
2.5%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
7.6%
18.8%Return on Equity股本回报率
3.2%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA0.90
Current ratio流动比率1.25
Capital Allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$0
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$55.0M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+1.3%
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 5/9 Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: grey (2.7) Clean稳健

Snapshot Gauges综合指标

Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理
Cheaper than 33% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 33% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
1.77×
0.21×3×
Moves about 1.8× the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.8 倍
Financial Health财务健康
5/9
Altman阿尔特曼: grey
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息

Why Is It Moving为何波动

Macro宏观 Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓 Quiet — no confirmed driver平静 — 无明确驱动
Technical技术面 VSXY took relative-strength leadershipVSXY 取得相对强弱领先

Signal History信号历史

NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP. A new cycle low likely formed 6 day(s) ago (2026-07-09 @ 76.19): swing low in, price back above the 10-day average — but the weekly timeframe hasn't turned yet, so conviction is partial. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell买入预备。新的周期低点可能已在 6 天前形成 （2026-07-09 @ 76.19）：摆动低点已现，价格重新站上 10 日均线——但周线周期尚未转向，因此信心仅为部分。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
TURN SIGNALED BOTTOMING
Jul 14, 2026
VSXY took relative-strength leadershipVSXY 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $81.92.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$81.92。
Jul 14, 2026
VSXY StochRSI turned up from oversoldVSXY StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $81.92.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$81.92。
Jun 30, 2026
VSXY daily MACD crossed downVSXY 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $83.48.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$83.48。
Jun 26, 2026
UPTREND → NEARING A HIGH上涨趋势 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jun 26, 2026
VSXY daily MACD crossed upVSXY 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $88.50.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$88.50。
Jun 26, 2026
VSXY RSI reached overboughtVSXY RSI进入超买
RSI(14) crossed above 70 — stretched to the upside; context, not a timing trigger alone. $88.50.RSI(14)上穿70 — 上行过度；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$88.50。
Jun 25, 2026
VSXY made a new 52-week highVSXY 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $83.00.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$83.00。
Jun 25, 2026
VSXY StochRSI turned up from oversoldVSXY StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $83.00.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$83.00。
Jun 24, 2026
VSXY daily MACD crossed downVSXY 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $80.64.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$80.64。
Jun 22, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → UPTREND接近高点 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jun 18, 2026
UPTREND → NEARING A HIGH上涨趋势 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jun 18, 2026
VSXY made a new 52-week highVSXY 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $81.98.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$81.98。
Jun 18, 2026
VSXY RSI reached overboughtVSXY RSI进入超买
RSI(14) crossed above 70 — stretched to the upside; context, not a timing trigger alone. $81.98.RSI(14)上穿70 — 上行过度；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$81.98。

Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 225 signals条信号

Factor Profile因子特征

Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.42
Value价值
-0.4
Profitability盈利能力
+0.9
Quality质量
+0.6
Investment资本投入
-0.1
Shareholder payout股东回报
-1.0
Low volatility低波动
-2.4
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-1.2
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.4
Short interest空头兴趣
-1.1

Company Profile公司档案

Victoria's Secret is an American lingerie, clothing and beauty retailer. Founded in 1977 by Stanford graduate student Roy Raymond and his wife Gaye, the company's five lingerie stores were sold to Les Wexner in 1982.Victoria'sSecret是一家美国内衣、服装和美容零售商。公司由斯坦福研究生RoyRaymond及其妻子Gaye于1977年创立，其五家内衣店于1982年出售给LesWexner。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
  • Margin compression despite revenue growth
  • Receivables stretch
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