Toll Brothers · Consumer Disc.
TOL
$150.76
Toll Brothers, Inc. is an American homebuilding company that builds, markets, and finances for residential and commercial properties in the United States.TollBrothers,Inc.是一家美国住宅建筑公司，在美国从事住宅和商业地产的开发、营销与融资。
Rate-sensitive利率敏感
Large cap大盘
$14B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
Setup almost complete — likely buy trigger in ~1–3 trading days if it closes back above its 10-day average.形态接近完成——若收盘重新站上 10 日均线，预计将在约 1–3 个交易日内出现买入触发。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$150.76
9.1% below 52-week high低于52周高点 9.1%
Market Cap市值
$14B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
10.6x
20.2x sector median
Beta贝塔
1.21
Moves about 1.2x the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.2 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
50
Neutral zone中性区域
Volatility Rank波动率分位
81th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
4.7% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | TOL | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +0.8% | -1.5% | Beat the index by 2.3 points跑赢指数 2.3 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | +0.9% | +0.6% | In line with the index与指数基本持平 |
| 3 Months近3月 | +2.8% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 1.9 points落后指数 1.9 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | +3.0% | +7.8% | Lagged the index by 4.8 points落后指数 4.8 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | +11.6% | +9.1% | Beat the index by 2.5 points跑赢指数 2.5 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | +29.1% | +19.4% | Beat the index by 9.7 points跑赢指数 9.7 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | +86.6% | +69.4% | Beat the index by 17.2 points跑赢指数 17.2 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
50
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线
+4.1% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+6.3% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
81th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$148.80
Don't chase above不追高于
$152.40
Stop止损
$145.30
Buy soon — on confirmation即将买入 — 待确认
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates being cut预期下调
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | TOL | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 10.61x | 20.23 | 84% |
| P/B市净率 | 1.70x | 2.97 | 73% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 9.42% | 4.53 | 86% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 7.18% | 5.69 | 66% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 4.56% | 4.31 | 53% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 7.23x | 11.48 | 77% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 13.93x | 16.53 | 63% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 9.2%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 31.7%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
16.0%Return on Equity股本回报率
9.3%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | -0.70 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $651.0M |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $30.8M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | -5.0% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 3/7
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (3.4)
Watch关注
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜
Cheaper than 75% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 75% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
1.21×
0.21×3×
Moves about 1.2× the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.2 倍
Financial Health财务健康
3/7
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Weak financial health财务健康状况偏弱
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Housing Chain theme — #25 of 46 themes「住房产业链」主题 — 46 个主题中第 25 位
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±2.47%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±5.52%
Call wall看涨密集区
$165
Put wall看跌密集区
$135
Gamma flip伽玛翻转
$140
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-3.8%
Flow资金流向
$0M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; P/C 1.53; ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $0M；0DTE占0%；看跌看涨比 1.53；≈偏看涨（方向近似）
Skew: 偏斜：fear
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$12.5M net (0 buyers, 3 sellers)-$12.5M 净值（0 买家，3 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Activity动作 | % of portfolio组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basswood Capital Management | B | trimtrim | 1.8% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal History信号历史
TURN SIGNALED
BOTTOMING
Jul 15, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 14, 2026
TOL StochRSI turned up from oversoldTOL StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $152.53.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$152.53。
Jul 6, 2026
TOL daily MACD crossed downTOL 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $154.86.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$154.86。
Jul 1, 2026
BUY ZONE → BOTTOMING买入区 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jun 30, 2026
UPTREND → BUY ZONE上涨趋势 → 买入区
BUY买入
Jun 23, 2026
Golden cross on TOLTOL 金叉
The 50-day average crossed above the 200-day — a slow, widely-watched bullish trend signal. $150.70.50日均线上穿200日均线 — 一个滞后但广受关注的看多趋势信号。$150.70。
Jun 19, 2026
TOL weekly MACD crossed upTOL 周线MACD上穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned positive — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转正 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 268 signals条信号
Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.07
Value价值
+0.8
Quality质量
-0.9
Investment资本投入
+0.1
Shareholder payout股东回报
+0.1
Low volatility低波动
+0.2
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-0.5
Earnings quality盈利质量
-1.1
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.4
Company Profile公司档案
Toll Brothers, Inc. is an American homebuilding company that builds, markets, and finances for residential and commercial properties in the United States.TollBrothers,Inc.是一家美国住宅建筑公司，在美国从事住宅和商业地产的开发、营销与融资。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Capital intensity rising
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Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。